Widdlesex: Anne Convinces Beardy Michael that Tales of Latin Lover are 'Without Foundation'

Utter pants - scurrilous satire here.

Danny Finkelstein: Political Calculus - consider the case as the vote tends to zero

Danny suggests here that some of us Labour Party people can gather together 34 different votes in the upcoming, hopefully upcoming Leadership elections. He dashes my hopes by missing out the Co-op Party and probably upset the celtic fringes by missing out our AMs and MSPs too. But he doesn't seem to understand the arithmetic at all.

There are three components in our electoral college.

The 400 or so parliamentarians get 33.333% of the say. A just a little smidge under 0.1% each.

The 200,000 ordinary members split the next 33.333%. A magnificent 0.0002% each. Doubling with apathy.

And finally the levy paying Trade Unionists who number around 4,000,000 and the total membership of all the socialist societies have a minute stake in the last 33.333%. Or 0.000001%. Quadrupling with the apathy we expect unless there is a decent contest with a personality and/or a policy platform for everyone.

The way everyone tells it only clunks of 44 members of the Parliamentary Labour Party can get a candidate onto the ballot paper but the whisper is that constituencies and affiliates who understand the rules could band together and put their favoured candidate in the running.

Does this person even need to be a parliamentarian? And as Parburypolitica points out in the direction of lawyer Harriet Harman a quick shufty at the election rubric would show her that the election is for leader and deputy leader of the party and not for Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister (if any).
Hands up who thinks Harriet'll be a good DPM, I mean DL ...

Jocky Wilson Says: Mike Read is 'Only an Idiot'

Kevin Rowland of Dexy's Midnight Runners recounts how his fine band persuaded the BBC Top of the Pops producer to put up a big FO picture of cuddly darts player Jocky Wilson instead of Jackie Wilson of Reet Petite fame.

"But Kevin," the producer said "people will think we made a mistake." Rowland told him only an idiot would think that.

The morning after, the DJ Mike Read shared his thoughts with the world: "Bloody Top of the Pops. How could they mix up one of the great soul singers with a Scottish darts player?" But it was OK, thank goodness. Only an idiot would think that. The Tories should be grateful they have leaders of such high calibre ready to ruin London.

Much more on Mr Read and some other Tory mayoral idiots anon.
Montage: LoL graphics.

My Baker's Dozen of Predictions for 2007

There are lots of loose ends carrying over into 2007 but this is my last post of 2006. Following Iain Dale's challenge to produce a list of predictions:

1. Not one person will face charges in the Cash for Peerages Inquiry, there may well also be some cautions however;
2. Sir Menzies Campbell will not be leader of the LibDems by the end of the year but Nick Clegg MP may not be the shoo-in he now appears to be;
3. Labour Left and Centre will surprise everyone by uniting round a candidate significantly to the left of Gordon Brown ... and doing remarkably well;
4. The Conservative Party 'Eh?' List* will be junked, having served its purpose as an unworkable piece of cuddly nu tory propaganda;
5. The BNP's two Lancashire bombers caught with 22 different bomb components will be convicted. Media ignoring of this, compared to coverage of utterly innocent Muslim suspects - found in possession of zero bomb components - will remain a complete mystery, along with the Guardian's 2006 pamphlet by 'Ian Cobain' for the "nice" new fascist party;
6. At least three LibDem MPs will defect to the Conservatives. David Cameron will offer to ennoble Tony Blair promptly if the new PM will not;
7. John Reid has already "wimped out" from the Labour leadership but one of the 'loyalist' Deputy candidates will find the DNA or the naked ambition to step up and there will be a useful contribution from so far unheralded women;
8. In one of their first acts the new PM announces a kind of timetable for both troop withdrawal from and an enquiry over Iraq debacle. Remit: Blair's Fault innit?;
9. Depending on the opinion poll bounce from that decision and his honeymoon period, and the timing of any boundary changes the new PM will consider calling a General Election within six months of stepping up;
10. West Ham will certainly get relegated making a significant proportion of Labour Against The War, Labour Left Briefing and the Labour Representation Committee as sad and also as unsurprised at the doyen of Doughty Street;

Manchester Predictions

11. Kassim Afzal will be de-selected as Lib Dem PPC for Manchester Gorton despite clowning his way to a decent swing in 05. He will be the second asian muslim PPC in our area to be de-selected by the Lib Dems whose recent advances in core cities have been helped by bulk votes from asian communities. This will finally trigger an Emperor's New Clothes moment among local asian communities as Labour select several asian candidates in winnables, and even the Tories do a bit;
12. John Leech MP will
own up in public that he went way over the top in claiming that Christie Hospital was threatened with closure and in particular express some weaselly regrets that cancer patients were futilely targeted with hoax leaflets; Others will join Andy Burnham, John Prescott, a popular EDM and others in condemning his crass and unprincipled behaviour. Labour will select a winner in the seat. The Tories will not go with a K Bradley against K Bradley as Karen's reward for losing 60% of the Tory vote in Manchester Withington is a run in The Staffordshire Moorlands, without a name change by deed poll. And Keith's reward for some robust whipping is a peerage.
Karen (left) and young but beardy Keith, Lord (right) Bradley
13. Simon Ashley, the Lib Dem Group Leader, will join Menzies Campbell and Charles Kennedy on the scrapheap. Other NW Lib Dems including Paul Rowen MP, John Leech MP and Chris Davies MEP along with the whole party leadership in Liverpool ("City of Culture - My arse!!" as Ricky would say) - will struggle.

Tory bloggers and their fellow travellers with 2007 predictions include Guido, Iain Dale, Dizzy, and Jeremy Jacobs who started the game with a terminal Hezbollah-Israel scrap among his six predictions.

But ... Happy New Year anyway. It may never happen!

Chris P