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My Baker's Dozen of Predictions for 2007
There are lots of loose ends carrying over into 2007 but this is my last post of 2006. Following Iain Dale's challenge to produce a list of predictions:
1. Not one person will face charges in the Cash for Peerages Inquiry, there may well also be some cautions however;
2. Sir Menzies Campbell will not be leader of the LibDems by the end of the year but Nick Clegg MP may not be the shoo-in he now appears to be;
3. Labour Left and Centre will surprise everyone by uniting round a candidate significantly to the left of Gordon Brown ... and doing remarkably well;
4. The Conservative Party 'Eh?' List* will be junked, having served its purpose as an unworkable piece of cuddly nu tory propaganda;
5. The BNP's two Lancashire bombers caught with 22 different bomb components will be convicted. Media ignoring of this, compared to coverage of utterly innocent Muslim suspects - found in possession of zero bomb components - will remain a complete mystery, along with the Guardian's 2006 pamphlet by 'Ian Cobain' for the "nice" new fascist party;
6. At least three LibDem MPs will defect to the Conservatives. David Cameron will offer to ennoble Tony Blair promptly if the new PM will not;
7. John Reid has already "wimped out" from the Labour leadership but one of the 'loyalist' Deputy candidates will find the DNA or the naked ambition to step up and there will be a useful contribution from so far unheralded women;
8. In one of their first acts the new PM announces a kind of timetable for both troop withdrawal from and an enquiry over Iraq debacle. Remit: Blair's Fault innit?;
9. Depending on the opinion poll bounce from that decision and his honeymoon period, and the timing of any boundary changes the new PM will consider calling a General Election within six months of stepping up;
10. West Ham will certainly get relegated making a significant proportion of Labour Against The War, Labour Left Briefing and the Labour Representation Committee as sad and also as unsurprised at the doyen of Doughty Street;
Manchester Predictions
11. Kassim Afzal will be de-selected as Lib Dem PPC for Manchester Gorton despite clowning his way to a decent swing in 05. He will be the second asian muslim PPC in our area to be de-selected by the Lib Dems whose recent advances in core cities have been helped by bulk votes from asian communities. This will finally trigger an Emperor's New Clothes moment among local asian communities as Labour select several asian candidates in winnables, and even the Tories do a bit;
12. John Leech MP will 
own up in public that he went way over the top in claiming that Christie Hospital was threatened with closure and in particular express some weaselly regrets that cancer patients were futilely targeted with hoax leaflets; Others will join Andy Burnham, John Prescott, a popular EDM and others in condemning his crass and unprincipled behaviour. Labour will select a winner in the seat. 
The Tories will not go with a K Bradley against K Bradley as Karen's reward for losing 60% of the Tory vote in Manchester Withington is a run in The Staffordshire Moorlands, without a name change by deed poll. And Keith's reward for some robust whipping is a peerage.
13. Simon Ashley, the Lib Dem Group Leader, will join Menzies Campbell and Charles Kennedy on the scrapheap. Other NW Lib Dems including Paul Rowen MP, John Leech MP and Chris Davies MEP along with the whole party leadership in Liverpool ("City of Culture - My arse!!" as Ricky would say) - will struggle.
Tory bloggers and their fellow travellers with 2007 predictions include Guido, Iain Dale, Dizzy, and Jeremy Jacobs who started the game with a terminal Hezbollah-Israel scrap among his six predictions.
But ... Happy New Year anyway. It may never happen!
Chris P
11 comments:
Lib Dem defections, ha ha. You're clinging on to the failed prediction for 2006. The thing is we've all seen through Cameron.
Now if your predictions about the Labour left turn out near the mark, expect some Labour defections to Cameron.
And FWIW, Ming will still be there in 2008,
My prediction is that the lib dems will have a new group leader in Manchester.
Oh happy new year by the way, do anything exciting last night?
Hi Joe - where do you blog then? - I'd like to see whether your writing is as careless as your reading seems to be.
Anyway, I didn't predict anything of the sort in 2005 for 2006. So why suggest I did?
But there's a much better case now. After all SEVEN Lib Dem PPCs have so far "seen through Cameron" enough to decide they like the inner tosser and jumped ship to join his crew!
Lib Dems have no coherent philosophy and no underlying feeling for "liberal democracy" and this means they can say anything without feeling uncomfortable. But having promised divergent things at every doorstep they are stuffed if they ever get to exercise power.
Again your "Labour left" comment is based on a crass misreading of my prediction which requires the left and centre combine productively. If that leads to any labour tories joining your people in crossing over to the dark side then so be it.
Iain Dale is predicting one Lib and one Lab making the crossing and there is speculation that hunters' friend Kate Hoey is the Lab one.
If Ming IS still there in 2008 the Lib Dems will have exceeded the length of the previous "longest suicide note in history".
All the best
Chris P
"But there's a much better case now. After all SEVEN Lib Dem PPCs have so far "seen through Cameron" enough to decide they like the inner tosser and jumped ship to join his crew!"
Is this a lib dem defection record or do they always do this?
I am mildy surprised at the overall good sense of your 2007 predictions. They are even close to mine; 4000 miles to the right of you though they may be!
happy 2007
Chris
Liked your predictions though dubious about some eg Labour coalescing around a non Brown leader. Really good blog.
Thanks especially to Uncityslicker (through which I found Tom Paine and will blog on both soon) and to Skipper for comments. I agree re the centre-left candidate Skip - unless we make it happen.
As long as Hezbollah are stockpiling weapons in south Lebanon (probably encouraged by the French)there will be another conflict. This time there will be Israeli troops in Beirut.
Thanks Jeremy. But I do hope you're wrong about all this. Let's all encourage these people to talk and actually make peace.
PS Why would Israel seek to occupy Beirut if Hezbollah are not welcome there? And they are not.
Have just read your predictions for the year. By my reckoning, not one of them has come true.
Tosser!
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