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Tory Candidate Blogs: Set to be HUG in Rossendale
Iain Dale asks "Who do so Few Candidates Have Blogs?" but we know he means "Why?"
Jake "the fake" Berry (right) - who stood and placed third last time in City Centre ward, Manchester - has one I tell Iain. Here's the link. I note that Jake already thinks that like a Tory think tank and that he should be an dot-org not a dot-con.
This candidate used to say he lived "in Manchester", later "on the outskirts of Manchester", but now presumably will have changed to "the environs of Rossendale" or some such?
No, alas it hasn't. It still has him moving to Manchester and living on the outskirts thereof. All the while Jake has of course lived in Cheshire, on the Liverpool side of the M6 I believe.
Incidentally the Conservative home analysis of Jake's selection commented on his spolling, grimmeur and sin-tax and this may account for more nice but dim Tories not having blogs. And Iain's own headline shows that factor up.
Perhaps it's a clever play on words that maternity units are in fact a "hug" rather than a "huge" issue in Rossendale?
Certainly the local government candidates Dave/id was communing with in Benchill, Wythenshawe may not be starting theirs anytime soon.
CAPTIONS: Picture top is we think of another Jake Berry.
This one here may be an out-to-lunch Jake Berry who is set to be absolutely HUG in Rossendale.
8 comments:
Are you the same Chris Paul who stood for Labour and increased the Lib Dem majority in City Centre ward last year?
Well done brother.
Errr. The share of the vote of ALL the parties except the Tories in the City Centre went down brother or sister. The Tories ran a campaign for once. And their was no independent. (Had scored 70 or 90 votes the time before in 04).
If the Lib Dem majority went up in the ward it was perhaps by a dozen votes from memory. Manchester Labour were of course mainly engaged in saving the FOUR seats the Lib Dems had allegedly targeted and taking FOUR of theirs off them for good measure.
Closely followed by a FIFTH.
I was very proud and contented with the overall result. In Manchester Labour we regard politics as a team sport and we are the winning team.
City Centre Ward
The nominal electorate went up by 800 but the turnout fell. The changes in party fortunes were:
Lib Dems - minus 27
Labour - minus 37
Con - plus 85
Green - minus 43
Independent - minus 70
So assuming the independent was a Tory by another name there was an uplift of about 15 in the Tory vote while the three other parties all lost similar numbers of votes.
Chris was right to say perhaps a dozen votes as the change in majority, it was ten, but there was a swing away from the Lib Dems and a significantly lower share of votes.
The Lib Dems have a mandate of barely 6% in this ward. Not Lib Dems has a mandate of 10% plus.
Overall city wide there was a swing of eight seats to Manchester Labour and away from the dishonest and unprincipled Lib Dems and if I were they and not an independent psephologust I'd keep schtum about recent election results.
Thanks Referee. Finally catching up with some of things after a brave battle with man flu.
On the swing from Lib Dems to Labour across the city you might have added that in Manchester Withington where the majority in pc terms is 1 the swing is, er, rather greater than that.
On average it was more than 6% - which if repeated would give a 3500 majority to Labour - and in the hotspots it was as high as 12%.
That's Burnage in particular with the exceptional work of Frank Duffy as a local community campaigner due much of the credit for that.
Also hard work from Manchester Labour activists, and some of the wannabe Man Wit candidates.
Chris
I think you - and many other Labour activists in the Withington constituency - are totally underestimating the task ahead.
You are right that there was a swing to Labour last May.
But - Labour won just two council seats in the Withington ward against the Lib Dems five.
And the Lib Dems had 1,697 more votes in the constituency - a bigger majority than in the parliamentary election.
The seats up for grabs this May are five Lib Dem and two Labour. One of the Labour is a Lib Dem defector.
So when they were contested last - in the all out I think - the Lib Dems won six out of seven seats.
How on earth did the Labour activists in Withington at the election expect to win the Westminster seat? Why did they turn down help from activists from outside the constituency.
This complacency must be overcome.
If Labour is to win back Withington it needs to close the gap in votes cast across the constituency.
All the wards need to be worked hard. Not just a couple which are targetted.
The council elections are about a popular Labour administration. The national election is about an unpopular Labour administration.
The signs are bad.
Thanks Realist
I am certainly not underestimating the task ahead though others may be. If we pick the correct candidate that would be very beneficial. But whoever is picked the seat is winnable for Labour.
Your analysis is obviously pretty shakey. All over the country and in particular locally in Man Wit and Man Gort we have been able to win constituencies with five figure majorities where we appear to have a minority according to council votes.
Reasons include:
- Turnout 70% not 30%
- People dabbling LD locally (usually) won't trust the lying scumbags as MPs
- LD candidates weak/already reached their limit
Clearly the last two factors were tragically ignored in 2005 in Man Wit.
Of course it won't be easy. Of course every area must be worked hard. But the swing in 2006 and the continued mistake-after-mistake of the over-promoted John Leech give cause for hope.
Best w
Chris p
Chris
Gorton is not a good comparitor.
Gorton North, Longsight, and Whalley Range were all Lab gains from Lib Dem in 2006.
Labour is MUCH stronger there than in Withington.
They also have a popular and semi-legendary MP.
Gorton is a great comparator. Scarcely a Council seat yet stuffed the hoaxing and lying Lib Dems. Also in 2006 begun winning back the Council Seats with wins in WR (transferred in from Central), Longsight, Fallowfield, AND Gorton North.
Actually Gorton was at a MUCH LOWER EBB than Withington in terms of Town Hall seats with JUST TWO compared to a stonking FIVE going on SIX.
The question ought to be why the Labour Party in Withington is at least one election behind Gorton in exposing the Lib Dems and winning back seats on the ground. I've some answers but not for blogging here at the moment.
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