Diane Abbot: Let's Talk Real Politik Not Scurrilous and Frankly Unrealistic Gossip

Miles from Action-Without-Theory posted a wild story as a comment HERE (top of the pops) overnight. I promised to blog about it myself and started this post fully ten hours ago.

Essentially the story was that Diane Abbot was to be flung out on her ear after facing what sounds an excruciating and extraordinary process of being taken to something called a "Trigger Ballot" - shotgun for ya! This followed a delightful wind up of a story over at Dave Osler's place. Picture: Double Act of Abbot and Some Fella

In fact Diane Abbot "faces a trigger ballot" like every single sitting Labour MP. How does this work? Branch Labour Parties and affilated unions and societies get together and are provided with a whip's report and have a discussion. Then they vote, in this case, on the simple matter - should Diane be affirmed here and now or face a re-selection contest?

Generally speaking positive incumbency effects outweigh any negatives and the risk of starting from scratch with a new candidate, possibly less well known than the opposition's, and people tend to vote for the status quo.

But if most of them vote for a re-selection contest then there would be one. This is already a bit far-fetched - unless New Labour tried to push the Trade Unions to take part in a putsch and they agreed to play ball.

Seems to me that if this were to happen - and these things rarely do, even when (or especially when) hyped in the press - that Diane would (a) probably get a bit of roughing up then get a shortlist of one or (b) beat any and all contenders hands down.

But it ain't going to happen.

The preposterous story among the conspiracists and fantasists is that the LEFT would do Diane in. Absolutely blooming ridiculous. The right would be more likely. But then again they may also be more likely to understand the tactics and recognise the positive incumbency and the positive name recognition.

And having a couple of hours on political TV most weeks is probably seen as a GOOD THING by the general public and conscientious activists alike.

Obviously the ginger nut arms dealer would not be able to deal on this one as if it came to pass it would be an AWS.

Seems to me that naming three local councillors who may or not be available should the day come is rather scurrilous and just a bit "Trotty-Petulant", though perhaps not as bad/good as "giving good headline" to The Daily Telegraph outside Brighton Conference Centre and then showing your CLP badge and giving your name as the Ultra Blairite delegate instead of your own. (Sadly 18-24 months out in blood on carpet predictions.)

The good headline? In answer to the question "What did you think of Blair's speech?". the reply straight off the bat: "Dead Man Talking". The comrade - a Londonista, non-mocha division. This comrade LOL'd and took some flack for repeating the anecdote and the LOL'ing to a stern London MP. He had sadly flunked in the ritual Brightom Karoake and was in a grumpy mood.

The man most likely to organise a carve up in Hackney North has other fish to fry and reports TODAY:

Diane Abbott was on top form and extremely funny, and won my son's vote in the reselection trigger ballot by giving him a kitkat bar to keep him quiet.

Mr Osler's blog shows there is a degree of jitters in Diane's camp about the trigger process. I gather this is because the forces to the left of her (we have them in Hackney) might vote not to reselect her (because of her son's private schooling and her support for Livingstone's position on the East London Line Extension - i.e. private sector involvement).

I'm not convinced she has anything to worry about. Yes there are a lot of people who will vote against her in some of the ward parties, but I'm not sure they will carry a majority even of the wards, and almost all the affiliates will vote in Diane's favour.

Getting her triggered would require a lot of organisation - and as the person who would, if minded to, do that organising, I can report that I'm not doing it because a) the political disbenefits for Labour in the seat outweigh any advantages it would bring and b) I have other selection fish to fry in the coming months in Walthamstow.

For once I have to agree with Luke Akehurst. This analysis from the BBC concerns the Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) candidates for the main parties in 2005. Labour had less but many were defending or placed in realistic winnables - way ahead of the other parties on Equality.

Labour parties de-selecting black women sitting MPs as candidates anywhere is very unlikely I feel. Selecting more BME candidates however is very desirable indeed.

- How many BME MPs and MEPs do Labour have in the North West?
- What is the proportion of BME voters in our safest seats?
- Why on earth doesn't Greater Manchester has some BME MPs?

UPDATE: I'm told by a man in the know (Ginger Nut) that this seat would NOT see an AWS if Diane were de-selected. Tom Watson MP posted this comment at Dave's Part:

Hahahahahahaha.
You want to deselect Diane Abbott?
That would be the sort of nihilistic, self-hating idiocy of the hard left we have all come to love. You're seriously thinking about deselecting the most articulate voice the hard left has in parliament?
Her bourgeois antics deserve punishing. I mean, to communicate with the workers, peasants and intellectuals through the anachronistic medium of the wireless television. What a splitter.
God bless the 'Ackney Norf hardcore Trot cadre crew.
Posted by Tom | 11:56, 23 March 2007

Tom (at the link above) also has a fascinating excerpt from an interview with one of Cameron's Eton Rifles on defections to the Tories.