Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Polling Day: Two Polls Today with Mixed Messages


Luke Akehurst follows both. Communicate Research HERE and ICM HERE. Former a small Tory majority, latter a very hung parliament.

One last set of bloody noses for Tony Blair and then, you know, a fresh start. Things really can only get better.

By Chris Paul at 11:53 pm

5 comments:

Luke Akehurst said...

The key issue is not the voting intention, which would not give the Tories a significant majority on either poll, but the propensity to vote figure, which is now so much higher for the Tories than for Labour that if it is correct the result will be a Tory landslide.

25 April, 2007 00:03
Chris Paul said...

Mmmm, thanks Luke. Have you and your clone done a Prince vs Pauper swap around. This is a bit serious for you.

This is the most interesting paragraph, taken out of context in the Guardian report:

Mr Brown has a narrow one-point lead - 40% to 39% - over David Cameron as the man voters think would be most likely to take the right decisions when the going got tough. But the Tory leader has closed the gap since September when the question was last asked. Then, he trailed the chancellor by seven points, 32% to 25%.

Or spun correctly by a roundhead:

Mr Brown has increased his tough-in-a-crisis vote by 60% while in the same period Mr Cameron's has gone up by less than 22%. This enabled Brown to vault over Cameron. And as there are bound to be some crises in the next two years, never mind in the five that follow, Brown is said to be Bullish about this finding."

25 April, 2007 10:25
Luke Akehurst said...

Too complicated for me - I'm just a thicko with a half-decent degree from Bristol. I don't know about me and my clone, but I think that Labour and the Tories have done a swap around. I just can't understand why the Tories keep attacking us from the left these days. Something's wrong, but I can't put my fat little finger on it.

25 April, 2007 12:50
Chris Paul said...

Too much salt in the liquor for your last Thermidor? Upsetting.

25 April, 2007 18:55
Chris Paul said...

Too complicated for me too. MIsread it ... whoops. The increases were the other way round ... but still it's good for Gordon it really is.

25 April, 2007 20:24

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