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Scotland the Brave: When Two Polls Clash
Luke Akehurst: Rejoices at a 3% Lead in the Herald HERE. While Iain Dale's Diary: Bad Labour Poll? "Discredited MRUK poll" may be more accurate, NOT appearing in the Glasgow Herald.
Though Tories (lying a very sad and flat 4th) have been happy to grab figures from both these pollsters when they swing in SNP's favour. Did you forget? The SNP are now the Tories' friends!
Elsewhere Mr Dale has a mis-analysis of Some Party Political Broadcasts, some mis-analysis of Pound Breaks $2 Barrier story and more interesting but still strange coverage of BNP Lists UKIP Council Candidates on Official BNP Website.
It's the BNP doing it to UKIP. To be honest the biggest potential beneficiaries are TORIES not either of the other two right wing groupings.
4 comments:
"Discredited MRUK poll" may be more accurate, NOT appearing in the Glasgow Herald"
Mruk recently also did a poll for North Scotland...their change in parties figure would produce a situation where SNP would barely have enough list candidates to fill all their list seats...
MRUK's name keeps coming up a lot in bad polling stories. They are also the company who did the 3% labour lead poll.
Word on the street is that we are going to get a real kicking in Scotland.
Not the same polling company. Scottish Opinion, did the 3% Labour lead, not MRUK, but they (SO) have also done a big SNP lead not so long ago. Neither MRUK nor SO are publishing their methods, sample models, exact questions asked.
Some good comments over at Dale's Place. Most of these polls not properly constructed to deal with boundaries for constituencies, detail of how lists operate, likely turn out vs respondents claims to be voters etc etc etc.
Scotland seems to be wild country for polling.
We won't get such a kicking in Scotland if some of you chaps get your butts up there and help the local candidates. It's a bit too far for me - I'm just going to Southend for the election to help out in Castle Point - but the younger members have no excuse not to get up there and help. With an independent Scotland Labour may never get a majority in Westminster again.
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