Deputy Dawgs: Political Betting, Turn Up on Turn Out

Political Betting rightly wonders out loud about turn out. But, despite being aware that this is exhaustive not FPTP, they quote a FPTP poll of those committed to vote. The actual betting market is close to the poll, as you might expect.

Turnout and transfers. Turnout and transfers. Turnout and transfers.

It looks to me like this could go to five rounds. I don't think the Hain and Blears transfers will go to one another. They could scatter five ways, then four ways, and then the contest proper. Harman and Cruddas will then have a pretty high mutuality so, if it were around 30, 30, 20, 20 after two eliminations, one of them could leapfrog the leaders.

Political Betting speculates that the turn out will be very low, as there is quite a lot of "who cares?" out there, and that this could favour Cruddas with the edge on keeness of cohorts.