Tuesday, July 03, 2007

Ealing Southall By-Election: Selection Prediction


Assuming Sonika Nirwal gets through the interviews to reduce a long list from ten to four - going on as I write - she is odds on favourite to win the popular vote which will be going on all day tomorrow.

LOL hear she has around 40% of the rank and file members firmly signed up to her campaign for first preferences.

UPDATE: The word in the comments is that the shortlist is just two. Men. If that's true Sonika is clearly not on it. That's show business.

8 comments:

Unity said...

Not sure that that's quite as significant as the news just out that Amicus/Unite are backing Nirwal.

If anyone was going to come through the middle as a compromise candidate in a heavily factionalised selection they'd need to come close to sweeping the Union section, which does suggest that the threat by one faction to go independent if their candidate didn't win through may have been successfully blunted.

If so, that changes the whole dynamics of the selection contest and does put Nirwal back in the driving seat.

Chris Paul said...

Is there some form of election college for shortlisting then? I'd heard there was shortlisting by a panel following interviews, a live hustings tonight. Not that likely to be well attended unless it becomes a social event. Then voting by rank and file tomorrow. I'm not sure where the Union leverage comes in in this case. Can you explain?

Anonymous said...

Why have I just heard that the NEC has just shortlisted two men only for this seat?

Chris Paul said...

Oh shit.

Chris Paul said...

Now I've had a think ... make that Oh Dear. If true this means that whatever proportion of the popular vote Sonika commands she will not be it. As I've said before I was not convinced by her but I was prepared to accept positive reviews from the likes of Nargis Khan.

Andrea said...

yes, it's a 2 men shortlist....no Sonika Nirwall

http://www.blink.org.uk/pdescription.asp?key=15142&grp=66&cat=217

Anonymous said...

Presumably Harriet Harman, as Chair of the Party, was at least aware of this disgraceful fix - why did she not intervene?

The local party members should have been given the choice. This secret fix shows the party, at least the top of the party, not to have changed. They are much happier making the decisions in a back room somewhere - we are left to lump it.

Chris Paul said...

It is important to win these by-elections. But I don't think Sonika had any chance of losing. I'm just finishing off a post on this.