Monday, August 20, 2007

Of Mice and Men: Vive La Difference!

ICM has delivered a strange poll to the very fair and balanced Euro enthusiasts at the Daily Mail. This poll says that 24% of Labour supporters would be less likely to vote for Labour if they haven't had the chance of a referendum vote on an "EU constitution".

The time for that has surely long gone? The thing was knocked back by other countries. Auf wiedersehn, au revoir, arrividecci. There is no constitution to vote on. Full stop.

Besides which this is NOT an issue volunteered as a priority on any doorsteps I've encountered. Which is much more relevant to a voting choice I'd have thought than an isolated question.

Giving away no great secret: lots of Labour's natural supporters in lots of constituencies simply don't vote most of the time, whatever they may say to ICM or indeed in voter iD exercises.

If 24% of our supporters move from 10% likely to bother voting (so 2.4%) to 5% likely to bother (meaning 1.2% and a 1.2% downturn overall) over this then this will have little effect in a weigh in situation. Journalists don't do stats and polls very well to be honest.

Of course there is no new EU Constitution just an EU Treaty. Europhobes insist this has just 10 out of 250 proposals that are different. So, if we believe that all these 250 proposals are equal, which I don't for one moment, that would be a 4% variation.

But in real terms the difference of these key proposals and also changes in the other 240 proposals is much greater. It might well amount to a 20% change overall. As alike as a man and a mouse. In terms of our two species' protein coding genes.

CAPTIONS: (Top) Background "a constitution"; Foreground "a treaty". (Right) Polls can be confusing.


Anonymous said...

Amaze yourself. Test the feeling of voting about Europe at

Chris Paul said...

Thanks anon. Been and done that. I voted against the silly over-simplified backdoor dissolution constitution offered but might blog it tomorrow.

How about the man/mouse thing?

And the optical art?