Monday, February 04, 2008

The Polls, The Polls: Ringing the Changes


It has been amusing to watch Iain Dale's coverage of Opinion Polls since he swore himself off covering every one of them. Last June that was. He broke his promise after just fourteen hours. Hey ho. "Pie crust promises", as Ms Mary Poppins might have it, "Easily made, easily broken".

Iain is off somewhere in the developing world. In a failed state where gun deaths are such a commonplace that having them running 50% above the current violence death toll in Kenya does not merit any comment. But it's a shame he isn't covering the latest Ipsos MORI poll. That was carried out around ten days ago now. Giving Labour a 1% lead from 2,000 face to face interviews. NB Fieldwork before the curtain opened on the pantomime of Derek Conway's embezzlement.

Strangely, with fieldwork after the quantum of Conway shameless thievery began to become apparent, with Dave dithering like a two-headed donkey (tm GuF) the Tory ICM numbers improved to a 5% lead.

Mike Smithson at Political Betting suggests that the polled respondents are so fickle and shallow that if Dave's on the telly - good or bad, even dithering pathetically on the great Delboy robbery - his score goes up.

3 comments:

a very public sociologist said...

It is amazing. New Labour under Brown is even more soulless and adrift than it was under Blair, and yet Cameron and his ragbag and toerag army of Tories still can't establish a substantial lead over the government. Shame.

Chris Paul said...

Shame indeed. Think Brown is getting a grip myself. And Conway makes Hain look like a candidate for a sainthood. When it comes to actually shifting power to the Tories I think the British people are just way too smart. Even without being able to remember Thatcher directly they will not trust a clique of Etonians, staffing allowance fiddlers, and drama queens to run the country.

Diablo said...

Getting a bit desperate, aren't you Chris?

Surprised you haven't seen this:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1113

A 9% lead for the Conservatives according to UK Polling Report - and the survey was taken after the Conway fiasco.

You seem to be getting more excitable these days. Commenting about rubbish collections to the FT, having a go about Guido (or, as you call him, Mr GuF - how amusing!); and rambling on about Mr GOO - even more side-splitting political satire - and Tory toffs in general. It's not particularly original, is it?

Perhaps you'll understand now why you don't get the traffic. You've become a parody of yourself.

Stick to bashing your local "LibDemologists" - you excel at that - or whether Tesco should be granted planning permission and the rest of us are spared having to give it a second thought.