Friday, June 27, 2008

Yellow Belly Economic Analysis: All Doom and Gloom

When someone has some tremendous statistics, good enough to bring about a day leading press release, and they begin thusly :

"New figures ... which found that the economy is now growing at is slowest rate since ..."

One tends to expect the reference date to be, oh I don't know, yonks ago.

But in this case it is a mighty three years back:

"... the first quarter of 2005"

When this person goes on to the most oxymoronic "anecdotal evidence" thing one must wonder why Vince Cable, for it is he, has such a reputation as an analyst and thinker.

What I suppose this really demonstrates is that the economy has been so reliably strong and growing these last eleven years that any slowing, any non-negligible inflation, any temporary drop or non-rise in standard of living really does stick out like a sore thumb. Such is the burden of success.

Vince should stop being such a whining misery for effect and try being honest and fair. Back in the day we would all expect some pretty serious economic up and down rollercoastering, albeit with a moderately rising trend. These days we have got used to an upwards only line and trend. Which is spoiling us.

Yesterday I saw a priority ranking of political issues which formed part of the ipsos MORI Public Affairs Moinitor (April results). The economy was actually way way down the list and health was lower than usual too. Immigration and the like had overtaken crime and disorder. Interesting times.

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