Thursday, September 25, 2008

You Gov Poll Bounce: Gordon Must Keep Pressure Up

It was The Sun Wot Done It!. Ten percent bounce for Gordon Brown's Labour. And quite right too. From a Johnnie Jogger start GB's speech showed what dedication, detail and serious preparation can do for the throughbred athlete. Gordy came home with the Gold.

You Gov's poll - fieldwork in the 24 hours after the speech - is a reassurance for loyal party members.

And time to skulk away for the plotters. There is a good case for sacking the lot of them. Some can craft a speech, some cannot. But none of these nocturnal creatures is as indispensible as they'd like to think. Gordon may choose to keep his enemies close but there'd be some huge cheers from the grassroots if it some of these people were put out to grass.

An emergency de-selection or two coupled with the odd surprise medical retirement for the grumpiest vendetta folk would be good news too.

Mike Smithson at Political Betting has a cautionary analysis which is hard to fault. Though why he'd think that there'd be a great outpouring over Ruth Kelly's long expected exit stage right I do not have a clue.

Only some events dear boy events around Tory Conference will stop the lead opening out at least a little over coming weeks.

Gordon Brown should deliberately disrupt memory man Cam's flim flammery by reshuffling DURING the super salesman's spiel speech.

And I'd make sure I did it near enough geographically to the Brum conference to allow both the big beasts and the bottom feeders of the lobby to be pushed into a Hobson's Choice. They'll choose Gordon and his bombshell reshuffle over more vacuous Tory Tosh.

The more thoughtful among them are now fed up with their own Brown-bashing master narrative. And a general election whose result is a given 18 months out is not only a silly narrative but also one in which they become sidelined, unnecessary, boring and subject to less "dinners", "big drinks" and "butties" as we say in Manchester. Updated 10:48.


Anonymous said...

Take no notice, Gordon!

I am no particular supporter of yours, but ignore this piece of nonsense. You tried pulling a similar stunt during last year's Tory Conference and it all came apart in your hands. In fact, it's the very day that everything began to unravel.

On second thoughts, booking in to the Frankly Services Travelodge to announce a Cabinet reshuffle on the day of Cameron's speech might just do the trick.

Who needs Alastair Cambell back when you can get all this superb advice for free?

Go for it.

Chris Paul said...

Cheers me dears. Let's just wait and see eh?

Anonymous said...

Who do you think will be the new transport sec. Chris?

As a Tory I am worried that Cameron will open his mouth again and lead to a further 10% dive.

Andreas Paterson said...

I would point out that last year when Almighty Gord tried to steal the news agenda in this way with his surprise visit to Iraq it did backfire somewhat. A surprise reshuffle is probably not too god an idea.

Still, it was a superb speech. I was having my doubts about Gordon, but I'm a lot happier about things now.

Chris Paul said...

You're too cynical AP ... Iraq trip backfired because of lack of clarity on troop draw down numbers really. Not because of timing IMO.

Reshuffling during Cam's speech would be fun times. But a bit too aggressive for laid back Gordo.

Anonymous said...

I'm afraid that's utter nonsense, Chris.

Brown was very specific about the number of troops that were to be withdrawn, very specific indeed.

However, Brown has a record of triple-announcing good news and disappearing when there is explaining to do, so people decided to check these figures.

Within hours it was evident that most of these troops were either already home, back in their bases in Germany or not intended to go in the first place. This left a reduction in the number of British troops stationed in Iraq at, well, not very many.

And then, in February this year, it was announced that they weren't being withdrawn anyway, but that would have been four months after the elction that didn't happen and so it didn't matter anyway. Did it?

Some cynics thought that it wan never going to have happened and that Brown was making what amounted to a pre=election announcement - much as he did over the immoral cut in inheritance tax for the rich to appease the Daily Mail.

And now you think that Gordon Brown will/should invite all the hacks during Cameron's speech at the New New Labour Conference so that he can announce that the next Transport Secretary is going to be the one and only, never-knowingly-underracist, man of the people, star of stage, screen and radio, Ladies and Gentlemen .... Liam Byrne (Ed - who he?).

Yeah, that'll work

Anonymous said...

Surprised it has taken you until now for any substantive comment on the Conference Chris - that bad eh? :)

I think it shows how desperate Labour have become that a poll showing a comfortable working Conservative majority is being spun as great news...

Chris Paul said...

Hi Iain

Long time no see. Have lots to say about conference, which was rather amusing and full of anecdotal fun and games, but no time to say it just now.

Obviously a poll that HALVES the Tory percentage lead is newsworthy. And this is not the only one.

And as for anon 09:34 do GTF won't you? What you're doing is very tedious. We simply do not have any spam. You cannot have spam and chips, spam and eggs, spam and spam. Sorry.

Chris P

Anonymous said...

I think the exact number quoted was 1000 troops home by Christmas and half the occupying force back within the year.

It was not a 'lack of clarity on numbers' as you so delicately put it. It was precise both in terms of numbers and timescale.

However, it was, is and will remain utter bullshit and purely designed as a pre-announcement to an election that never took place.

Anonymous said...

Lets see after the Conservative Party Conference Chris and then look at the polls.
I thought it was shamefull that Labour were using cancer patients as political tool is there nothing your party will not stoop too?