Sunday, February 15, 2009

Conor's Commentary: The Death of Fianna Fail?

"Maggie Thatcher? You can't match her
She's the darling of us all
She's the curse of the Irish nation -
Fine Gael and Fianna Fail"

Sadly the above rhyme or more accurately Sean Brady lyric here may have to be completely overhauled. A quite extraordinary development in the party politics of Ireland. Or at least in polling history as Conor's Commentary suggests may represent the death of the corrupt and teetering Fianna Fail. With Irish Labour taking over as the leading opposition party.

I'm not sure if that should be Hurrah! or not? They are the governing party, theoretically "centre-left (gone wrong)", with the most seats persistently since 1932 forming the government more often than not. But on the other hand Conor reports:

Brian Cowen, whose abysmal leadership of his party has been marked by an approach to the economy similar to that advocated by David Cameron and George Osborne, has begun to kill his party.

Meanwhile closer to home, but still polls-wise, Iain Dale was on tonight's BBC News 24 papers review. He was gloating that - in one poll - there is but 3% between Labour (25%) and Lib Dems (22%).

He had of course already pointed out that another poll had the Lib Dems on 14%, 8% down on his favourite poll then, and miles behind Labour. The polls were in fact all over the place, he had said. Make your mind up Iain! Are these polls reliable and good crowing fodder? Or are they all over the place? And pretty useless in the current silly season?

Iain also came over with a pretty Trotty, populist line about Banker Bonuses. the John Prescott line, not the Tory line surely? This was in some contrast with one "Tom" who reckoned that, if "they" wanted to see capitalism continue here in the UK, bonuses would need to be paid in an international market situation.

This was Tom Newton Dunn - The Sun's Defence Editor - and although the pedigree might suggest another natural Tory this man looked rather alarmed throughout. Alarmed at Iain's gung-ho Toryism, and by turns appalling and appealing partisanship.

Wasn't he supposed to be, you know, fair and balanced albeit with a bit of a twinkle for his own favourites? Iain was also commendably fluent/glib on the FSA and tripartite regulation and the like, but then extraordinarily gullible in accepting every word of a whistle blower who bears humungous grudges in several directions.

Spilled his guts to the ever reliable Independent on Sunday. Iain was ever so pleased that this axe-to-grinder had Gordon Brown in his sights. To be fair Iain hadn't read the whole piece and he said so. Like he had not viewed Fitna before he pontificated about that then. Will Paul Moores prove to be Gordon Brown's downfall? Or emerge simply as a feeling-wronged man lashing out? Probably the latter I should think.


Anonymous said...

there is but 3% between Labour (25%) and Lib Dems (22%).

Is there a correlation between that and Dollylist emerging? Oh, and it still says it is beta and there are no ads.

jailhouselawyer said...

You know that the Republic of Ireland now allows all convicted prisoners the postal vote? Can you give me some idea when our so-called liberal democratic country intends to extend the franchise, and thereby assure Parliament legitimacy by applying the principle of universal suffrage?

benchilltory said...

I suspect that many governing parties will be ousted over the coming couple of years.If a big ecomonic crisis occurs during your watch then you will get the blame.
If am surprised by how poor Browne has been. In times of crisis a bold statesmen like figure whom the nation can rally round is whats needed,Browne is a bit one dimensional, too partisan and devisive.
i think that Labour need to do some serious thinking, to lose an election happens and you always get another chance in the future , however you need to be careful that you end up so far behind that it will take at least 10 years before you stand a chance of winning again.
i think a lurch to the left at this moment would be profitable for the Labour party

Chris Paul said...

You might be right BHT. Then again ... as you're a Tory that "lurch" might be what you'd like! Brown may in the end be divisive in a way that actually works for Labour.

And we still seem to have a Brown-in-a-crisis, Cameron-in-clear-skies view from the whole electorate, many of whom are not expressing a preference in the main polls. Don't see any clear skies just yet. And the argument that have a weak but charming (?) leader ANY TIME is extraordinary.

On the Universal Franchise thing JH? I'd support this myself. But not sure either of the main parties would promise this ahead of the GE. Something to deal with early doors in the next parliament if Labour get back in and never never if the Tories do. IMO.

Anonymous: Blaming Dolly is just foolishness! 99.99% of the electorate have never or scarcely heard of him.