Friday, March 13, 2009

Iain Dale: From 500 Down to 10,000 Down - That's Remarkable

Iain Dale was it seems scratching around for something to write about this morning. Headed towards UEA he's hyping a bog-standard by-election victory as some thing to write home about. HERE. Doesn't sound all that remarkable. Not remarkable at all. Certainly not as remarkable as the Iain Dale/Lord Cashpoint turning a nearby Lib-Con marginal at c 500 votes, into a solid LD 5-figure majority. Perhaps Trevor Ivory will have more luck?

"Tories hold seat in council by-election following death in office"? Nah, can't see that beating "Dog bites man" to the front page in even the sleepiest hollow. The kind of LGBE contest least likely to see a change. In my opinion.

"It's a good sign people are sick of Labour" said "Sue" in comments. Inexplicably. And very interesting to see Lib Dem Mark Senior's attempted factual intervention. Though there's not much sign of comparing fairly from anyone.

Tory vote down a little (-2 says LD Simon), Labour vote down more (-8 says LD Simon), LD up a lot (+16 says LD Simon), usurping collapsed Greens as third party, but still very much third.

Probably fall back to a Lab-Con contest in the next scheduled LGE.

There's only one seat in Luke's round up where Tory vote increased, and that in funny little ward held by Inds previously. And for Iain's miracle Norfolk seat? Quite different swing figures with the Tories taking the biggest tumble.

Bowthorpe Ward, Norwich CC. Con hold. Con 915 (35.8%, -10.2), Lab 761 (29.8%, -5.7), LD 686 (26.8%, +19.7), Green 193 (7.6%, -3.8). Swing of 2.3% from Con to Lab since 2008. This ward is in Norwich South (Charles Clarke's seat) which is both the joint number 2 parliamentary target seat for the Green Party (with Lewisham Deptford and after Brighton Pavilion) and the number 156 target seat for the Tories.

PICTURED: The Bowthorpe Oak. Across the border in Lincolnshire. Born before Domesday, ne'er mind Magna Carta. Symbolic of Tory shirelands. Tatty chic, very very old, still standing, remarkable for its distended girth. Particularly staggering in bare naked moments. When chickens come home to roost.


Anonymous said...

So that's a 12% swing from Lab to LD then?

Chris Paul said...

Yes indeed John that is I suppose possible arithmetic, and around a 15% swing from Tories to Lib Dems is also possible arithmetic.

However, it's third for the Lib Dems and in the ancient tradition of election results reporting it is the swing between the main combatants du jour that is reported.

Simple Simon of course just picked and then mangled up some random figures to give the percentage changes he quoted.

Luke's is as they say gospel. Simon played an apocryphal blinder in the temple once I believe. But luke is gospel.