Irwell Riverside: Hazel's First Test in Court of Public Opinion

Friday, 22 May 2009 Irwell Riverside By Election Results

Matt MOLD Labour 606
Steven Iain MIDDLETON Lib Dem 293
Gary TUMULTY BNP 276
Chris BATES Con 189
Rob MITCHELL Green 125
Duran Benjamin O'DWYER UKIP 123
Turnout 17.3%

2008: Irwell Riverside Ward

* COEN Stephen Labour 888
McKELVEY Kenneth William Liberal Democrat 337
LEWIS David Barry Conservative 286
HEALEY Anthony BNP 233

Turnout 20.6%

My general theory is this: Dinosaurs are thin at one end, thick in the middle, and thin again at the other end. And I'm sticking to it! When it comes to local government by-elections involving the BNP and where they stand for the first time my theory is as follows:

1. Whereas turn out in run of the mill by-elections is depressed by three or four percent. It will hold and likely increase.
2. Whichever parties are the incumbent the BNP will usually get out voters who don't usually bother - and this "Non Voter" element rather than Conservatives (Manchester Moston) or Labour (Kent Sevenoaks) is the true source of the majority of their votes.
3. The more alternatives there are for protesting voters the better.

Irwell Riverside - the local government ward that Hazel Blears' office in Salford stands right on top of - is an essentially inner city white working class ward with a good deal of social housing, topped off with students who scarcely turnout at all other than in General Elections, and incoming private freeholders and tenants in new build and converted apartments.

In such wards this latter group are somethingly like students. Also pretty slow on their feet, hard to reach with literature never mind on the knocker, not particularly engaged with the ward, the city of Salford, or even Greater Manchester. Many of them will drive to work and indeed on social outings from the underground carpark in their block and drive back there when they are done. Some literally never set foot on the pavements of Salford.

The turnout probably looks desperately low. And rather than growing it has dipped. This is say a six to eight percent group "on strike". Though with the BNP already standing in 2008 there is perhaps far less of a kick up the arses of the dyed in the wool tribal non voters. If we factor in a say 1% turnout from students - in the throes of exams - and a 5% turnout from incomers, the more long-standing local people don't do so badly.

In this case of course we also have a local MP under fire, including from the Labour Group in the Town Hall, and a general apathy and disillusionment with party politics. In these circumstances the result is not bad. The Tories slumped, as they did in Didsbury West, and Moston, and possibly Pendlebury (?). Do I feel the deft touch of Rob Addlard on the tiller again? The Greens may have been the main destination for Labour protests. UKIP were most welcome in offering an anti-Europe alternative to the Tories and to the BNP.

The BNP high ups have lifted their dragging knuckles onto their calculator keypads and reckon this one off by-election in strange times signals they are "on course" for the Euro Elections. In fact considering the context, that they have stood here before, and the turf they ought to be very disappointed rather than self-congratulatory.

I wasn't able to get out and help yesterday as I had planned - partly to test the temperature on The Blears Sensation - but I did drive through the ward three or four times. There were no queues at the polling stations, put it that way!

UPDATE 13:05: Have a break photo added, hat tip: David Ottewell's Politics