Friday, August 03, 2007

Labour's Fightback: Six Predictions for Six Years

Labour's Fightback is back after the sort of hiatus we used to despair at from "Reclaim Labour". Incidentally of the so-called parliamentary "Left" Jon Cruddas and John McDonnell have also been very quiet. While Michael Meacher has maintained his tempo. (Links in last post).

Owen sees his glass half empty or worse with Brown, and he makes six predictions. Here they are, with my view in italics:

Firstly, there will be a general election in the not-too-distant future.
First week in June 2009

Secondly, Labour will win the election with a similar majority as today.
Probably a bigger majority. Perhaps 90 or so.

Thirdly, David Cameron will resign as Tory leader and leave Parliament.
Quite possible I suppose. If I'm right about the majority. If Owen is right, perhaps not. He was supposed to be on a two-stop strategy after all.

Fourthly, David Davis will be his only viable replacement.
Hague will still be there and might be a more attractive option. Davis is a bit like Labour picking ... oh, I don't know who ... go on then, John McDonnell. Davis would be a change in the direction of travel, not necessarily towards electability.

Fifthly, there will not be another Labour leadership contest for at least six years. Such a contest will be bittersweet for the left: there won't be an obvious successor in whom the trade union bureaucracy and softer left have illusions in (like Brown) - but there will be fewer left MPs and the soft left will be more likely to run their own candidate (probably Cruddas - who has gone very quiet since the deputy leadership contest).
Ten years. Perhaps twelve or thirteen. There is a prospect here of something a bit Swedish occuring in the UK. Ten to thirteen years is a long time in politics. Even six years is. Some nurturing and pragmatism from the left could widen this caucus.

Oh - and sixthly - Michael Meacher's leadership ambitions will continue unabated. You think I'm joking. Seriously, I'm not.
At six years, perhaps. Any more than that, highly unlikely. But he is blogging like a good 'un unlike "bloggers' hero" Jon Cruddas.

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