Thursday, October 11, 2007

On Trigger Ballots: Grimmer Up North Now Likes Them

Grimmer Up North seems to like the trigger* system when a Blairite may face time's up. Almost as much as Grimmer Up North seems to dislike the trigger system when a Campaign Grouper was up. The real question will come if Laura in Crawley does face a contest. Have there been any candidates of the left working their socks off to get the nomination as Stephen Twigg did? If not why not?

* Under the trigger ballot the ward parties and affiliates in a constituency all vote yeah or nay on a reselection without a contest. If they vote nay there can still be a shortlist of one, the sitting MP. But there may also be a contest. In which case chance favours the prepared.


Anonymous said...

Much ado about nothing in this particular seat. A Labour MP in Sussex with a 37-vote majority is going to get kicked out by the electorate anyway barring a disaster - do the local CLP really want to replace her with someone who'll lose by even more and remove any chance of winning the seat back in future? If so, good luck to them!

Chris Paul said...

Could be Iain. If they've not yet selected they could slide in Iain Dale of course as he specialises in boosting incumbents in marginals by 20-fold. Which is almost as good a trick as wishing away a five figure majority in Man Wit to be fair.

If a week is a long time in politics then 20 months is an ice age. Polls today (Sun) still neck and neck for parties but despite not his best week for GB and possibly his best week for DC the former is still many times more trusted as PM than the latter.

All to play for. Even in Crawley. And there is always the option where the Tory gets elected then crosses the floor??

Anonymous said...

I believe Crawley Conservatives have readopted their 2005 candidate who achieved a terrific swing - Crawley was barely on the radar before the last election and now it has a majority in double-figures. Since then we've taken the Council with a resounding swing.

I've seen Labour MPs hold on against the odds in 2005, and as Ms Moffatt is already heavily odds-on to lose her seat, a new candidate or a split association will turn a likely result into a near-certainty.

Personally I would expect southern marginals like Crawley to be regained by the Conservatives at the next election even if - and it is now a big if - Labour are returned to power.

Chris Paul said...

Don't know how you can call it a big if. On the current polling, never mind the poll of polls, Brown still has a comfortable overall majority.

I'll take a look at Crawley. Was it one of those vote Lib get Tory seats we hear about?

Local Govt elections are not scalable to General Elections as you well know.

Anonymous said...

Genuine (huge) swing to Conservatives:

Moffatt (Lab) 39.1% (-10.2)
Smith (Con) 39.0% (+6.8)
Sheard (LD) 15.5% (+2.8)
Trower (BNP) 3.0% (+3.0)
Walters (UKIP) 2.2% (-0.7)
Burham (Leftie) 0.6% (+0.6)
Khan (Justice) 0.5% (-0.2)

Labour Majority 37

Danivon said...

By the way, as a member of Crawley LP, I haven't seen any alternatives sniffing around for the gig. As of now, Laura would be the favourite to win a selection vote anyway (and the two wards that are reported are not necessarily reflective of opinion across the local CLP).

The tory-boy candidate is very nice, in a smooth and slightly creepy way, but as the leader of West Sussex County Council he didn't even notice a massive overspend on the town's Fastway which was kept quiet during the 2001 campaign.

He's also promising us a new hospital, based on the flimsiest document on local health I've ever read (and I've read some right dross).

Personally, I hope people catch on to Henry Smith and his low tactics, and that Ashcroft's millions don't make the difference.

(yes, from your figures and my experience, this is a 'vote LD, get a Tory' seat)

Chris Paul said...

Thanks for that Danivon. With a near miss like that a a very much blotted copy book at County Hall the Tory Boy Citizen Smith looks beatable.

If the Fastway thing didn't play in 2005 I think it's unlikely to play in 2009. But hospitals are always a good call and if it is Ms Moffatt that wins it (as it would be) then Tory should be toast.

Danivon said...

Thing is, at the moment people are falling for his and Maude's hospital claims. Laura is vulnerable on the hospital issue, as it was downgraded over the last five years.

However, recently I have heard people question Henry's claims - mainly because they made the mistake of saying it could happen quickly, and nothing has.