Brown's First Cabinet: Dale's First Draft

Seems to me Iain Dale may be 70% right on names with at very best 50% overall against the right posts:

Prime Minister: Gordon Brown Doh yes (doesn't count in pcs)
Deputy Prime Minister: Alan Johnson Nah
Chancellor: Alistair Darling Nah
Home Secretary: John Denham Nah
Foreign Secretary: Jack Straw 50:50 - Chancellor?
Education: Alan Johnson Nah W&P?
Health: David Miliband Maybe
Transport: Stephen Timms Maybe
Trade & Industry: Ed Balls Maybe
Attorney General: Baroness Scotland Maybe
Communities & Local Government: Hazel Blears Nah
Chairman of the Labour Party: Peter Hain Absolutely nah
Chief Whip: Nick Brown Maybe
Environment: Hilary Benn Maybe
Justice: Liam Byrne Maybe
Work & Pensions: John Hutton Maybe
Leader of the House of Commons: Harriet Harman Nah
DCMS: James Purnell Maybe
Northern Ireland: Geoff Hoon Nah, Buff's been there
Leader of the Lords: Neil Kinnock Didn't he say no?
International Development: Caroline Flint Maybe
Defence: Douglas Alexander And maybe
Chief Secretary to the Treasury: Yvette Cooper Maybe
Social Exclusion & Cabinet Office: Jacqui Smith Maybe

Down from eight to six women? Doubt that. Andy Burnham may get something. Margaret Beckett if moved may get Leader. Cruddas might get Chair, which is what he is standing for. Any more suggestions?

The Master: Something of the Night About Him

What an allegory. Early in the 21st century a politician emerges from nowhere - possibly TV marketing, is encumbered by few specific beliefs and gathers some big hitting endorsements. Possibly with some fibs about his position on Europe and the like.

The nine second clip here is ringing off the hook.

Here's what Cameron Harold Saxon aka The Master offered:

"I believe that the business of government does not have to be complicated. Too often politicians have mystified the process in order to avoid transparency. I have nothing to hide.

Just ahead of killing the President of the USA and ordering a bunch of aliens in Bullingdon space regalia to decimate the population. Widdy has previous. Only this time the would be representative used microwaves and got elected, rather than Photoshop, followed by disgrace and failure.

Tales of Two Cities: Oh Doh and Frank Chickens

Drifting through the streets in transit is the wonderful Kazuko Hohki
exploring the King's Road at 11 am, 1pm and 3pm TODAY. Chelsea Theatre, World's End Place, King's Road London, SW10 0DR. It's Free, but for limited spaces, so reserve your place call 020 7361 3003.

With a little help from Sir & St Thomas Moore, a special journey to some familiar and unexpected places along the Kings Road; on a journey where the familiar, the historical and the fictional will meet, on a journey to the end ...

Next day Kazuko's Frank Chickens are doing a FREE show at 2.45pm in Leicester Square. Post punk, post modern, post Oh Doh. Presented as part of West End Live, in association with Chinatown Arts space.

I'm sorry to be missing these events up here in the North. But as a potato appreciator and derive art fan I'm even sadder to have missed Chip Shop Stories in Hackney last Thursday. Part of Architecture Week 2007.

EXCLUSIVE: Seven Years On it's Farhat Khan 'Refugee'

Hallelujah! After seven years campaigning Farhat Khan and her young children have been granted refugee status. More on this later. Mr Blair (above) was pleased as punch when Farhat shook his hand.

David Davis: Basher non-Bullingdon Bully Boy

Mr GuF reported recently on Basher Davis' personnel relations.

Today he continues with news of constructive moves from Basher's ex.

Weekending with her employment lawyer.

DALE EXCLUSIVE: Brown to Sugar - You're Hired!

Oh dear! Iain Dale missed the Paddy Ashdown "exclusive" yesterday and now he's overcompensating. Fun may be had in comments.

Deputy Dawgs: Grim News ... from Calderdale

Grim News indeed in a comment on my riposte to Mr GuF's Johnson Cleaners Story:

Went to local Labour club last night to find a box of deputy leadership ballot papers left unopened and unspotted by anyone. When I tackled them about it, said they couldn't afford and couldn't be bothered to send out the ballot papers to their 1000 members.I could have walked off with the box and posted them all myself of course had I been motivated towards any of them. A sad irony and sad end to this farce of a contest.

Whichever Labour or er, Trades Club this may be should try harder. With 100% turnout - unlikely living in a box, living in a cardboard box - these 1000 unspent votes would have together been worth about one MP's vote.

Deputy Dawgs: Distinctly Donkey Derby

Newer Labour's latest Cruddas-philia reminds me of something. Have you noticed how a historic donkey effect has influenced the DL list?

Three candidates with surnames from the first three letters, two more on the 8th and the last on the 10th. What did the other 60% of the alphabet do wrong? In the bad old days position in the alphabet had a profound effect in alphabetically listed transferable vote situations in Australia and Ireland for example.

This was known as Donkey Voting or the Donkey Effect. But this is not all dim and distant. The donkey vote never did Bertie Ahern any harm. And there is a debate in the Scotsman about this donkey thing still influencing success as recently as May 2007.

And it is remarkable how often the candidates - of a particular party in a multi-seat or from a whole list - do better the lower they are in the A-Z.

Any other alphanumeric factors? Well yes, actually. Numbers 2 and 4 are not favourable. 6 could be better. 1, 3 and 5 are best. Auspicious for Benn; a mountain to climb for Johnson; Cruddas and Harman well-placed.

Jailhouse Lawyer: Irish Consultation on Penalism

Jailhouse has reposted a report (from April 5) on the Irish people's attitude to imprisonment versus drug and psychiatric treatment and no-custodial sentences here. Not sure where it is reproduced from but a survey in the UK would surely give similar results, and provide a better rationale for changing tack than temporary expediency.

David Lindsay: Interesting and Idiosyncratic

Some interesting and idiosyncratic stuff over at Mr Lindsay's. In the latest post suggesting that Ming and Dave-id and Gordon already ARE part of the same party. Cute. And some analysis the like of which I've never seen before on Israel being close to a pan-Arabic state.

Guido Fawkes: Taken to Johnsons The Cleaners?

Mr GuF reckons Alan Johnson will win by more than 5%. He bases this on figures from campaign teams. Very reliable I'm sure. How many readers have been properly canvassed/id'd including transfers?

I'd not be surprised if he's 5% ahead at the off. Let's speculate a bit:

AJ ... 27.5% ... 28.5% ... 31.5% ... 31.5%

HB ... 22.1% ... 25.1% ... 27.5% ... 32.5%

HH ... 14.9% ... 17.9% ... 20.9% ... 35.9%

JC ... 14.5% ... 17.5% ... 20.5% out ... ...

HB ... 11.0% ... 11.0% out ... ...

PH ... 10.0% out ... ...

Alan Johnson out in the last transfer? Where do his transfers go? Hee hee hee. Harman and Cruddas could get to round three the other way round. It's still all to play for. Though my vote early vote often strategy has been sadly thwarted ... a long story.

Libdemologists: Figures are Tantamount to Made Up

Labour Watch has the staggering news of some slight adjustments to sentences to balance prison numbers. But takes the biscuit with this:

Baby bonds - Lib Dem figures show take up is lowest in poorest areas and is failing to have an impact

Ah, "Lib Dem figures"? That's tantamount to saying they're made up. Where is the link to these figures? Who gathered them? Did Foxy Rennard ask three people on an estate, and three in a 'burb? Is that it?

Lib-Lab Cooperation: Becoming a Danse Macabre

Political Betting are suggesting that Paddy Pantsdown is behind the Guardian Story and that the form of words "Lib Dem MP" of the denial does not rule out a Lib Dem Peer - such as himself - anymore than a floor crosser - such as Sir Ming.

Danse Macabre was the incidental music used in the BBC coverage of the Lib Dem federal conference 2005.

Bike Week 2007: Haven't You Noticed?

You can find the events near you here and the site and partners reflect industrious pedaling from the cycle hordes.


Bit disappointed with this banner advert though. The real offers on the table seem to be in the 10 to 20% range. No free-wheeling here.

More click through banners for health and happiness:














There's a competition to win a bike here.

Soft Shoe Re-Shuffle: Will Ming Cross Dance Floor?

Not surprisingly the Lib Dems are denying that any Lib Dem will serve in a Brown cabinet. Although the Guardian ran this old story again today and Iain Dale followed it is in fact not at all new.

The Spectator and LOL had the story three weeks ago and it was hardly new then. LOL also suggested that the cracks were widening between lefty W Menzies Campbell and tory Nick Clegg.

Such is the resistance from "Brutus" and the Orange Bookies that Ming now needs to change parties to have the ministerial career he could have had. How many Social Democrats will Sir Ming bring with him?

Palestine: Bob Piper, Tony Karon, Sir Gerald Kaufman, Dr Kim Howells ... Iain Dale

Bob Piper said yeaterday: "Take Your Pick" and pointed at the messiness of Iain Dale and the sense of Tony Karon. I'd like to add Sir Gerald Kaufman and Dr Kim Howells to the debate.

Guardian 10am: Piara Khabra, Ealing Southall Dies

Father of Oldest MP in the house, since Ted Heath's retirement, Piara Khabra MP has died. A rather thin Wiki entry is here and this is an April 2005 interview hung on the question of all women short lists.

The Croydon Guardian previewed the decision on AWS in March with a profile of the front runner Sonika Nirwar. From this distance I'm not that impressed with her. Talk of her "growing up" in the last six months isn't that encouraging.

So I hope that the constituency choose Dr Rupa Huq who has already fought one Euro and one Westminister Election, is bright as a proverbial button, and actually lives in the area.

Iain Dale: Abortion Figures Shame This Country

Iain Dale "thinks" Abortion Figures Shame This Country. He has corrected his assertion that one in three conceptions are aborted. But it is still sadly poor statistics followed by a rush of blood.

No time to blog it just now. But this is my response there (Additions in brackets):

As anonymous says one in four. (Though it turns out Iain has mixed abortion stats for UK with births for England so he's still wrong). And it is rather offensive and pre-emptive to be calling foetuses of a few weeks from conception "babies". There are thousands and thousands of miscarriages too which you have not accounted for ... many coming under the apparent "false alarm" category but many many more conceptions that naturally don't go to term. Unless some of these are included in your abortion tally? (These - many of them representing wanted pregnancies that could become wanted babies - are far more tragic than abortions in my view.)

Though brought up by a staunchly "pro-life" mother I am myself pro life in a contrary sense meaning "pro-choice" in the jargon.

It is bad enough having Ms Dorries pontificating about this matter - trying to tell other women how to manage their reproductive faculties - but what makes you think you're entitled to lecture on this?

Are the Cuddly Nu Tories, being progressive and all, coming under the thrall of the religious right?

And no Machievelli (another commentator) it is not feckless and irresponsible - not in most cases - it is raped, it is contraceptive accidental, it is overtaken by circumstances, it is medical for embryo, foetus, baby or mother, it is psychiatric. Whatever it is it is not undertaken lightly by anyone.

Poor statistics with no source. And poor arguments. Superstition and propaganda.

1 in 3 is plain wrong arithmetic. 1 in 4 is lazy and wrong too. Get the correct figures. Then think things through. Or better stand on the shoulders of great women and men and research the thinking that has already been done on the subject. Infuriating.

Citizen Dave: The Revolution Flounders in Tooting

Mr GuF knows Dave-id, like Wolfie, is drowning not waving.

Gordon Brown: Countdown Will Work Soon ...

Gordon Brown does something David Cameron will never do and earns another place in history in just a few days.

Channel 4 Poll: "Progressive" Dave-id Cameron is Falling Flat on His Toffy Nose

YOUGov's Exclusive Poll for Channel 4 News shows that perception of the Tory Party and their "progressive" leader is unchanged from Michael Howard's "are you thinking what I'm thinking? days.

Bernard Manning Dead: What a Damned Shame

Vote Forse X: Bramshaw, Copythorne North and Minstead ward in New Forest

Hat tip goes to a young and vigourous Cllr Bob Piper. "Electoral Viagra" said one Lib Dem. Local Paper (Google cache, original worn out). Mr Forse won for the very blue indeed party last Thursday. It seems a tree surgeon almost lost his grip laughing out loud.

Luke Akehurst: Three Posts Break Duck, Zero Hazey

That's better. Luke has finally delivered his view on the heartening YouGov Poll. We're in Overall Majority territory as predicted by LOL by holding a finger in the breeze, and by Luke with reference to infallible calculators.

Luke even weighs up the prospect of an early General Election. Something the poll also supports. I'd agree, but not sure about Brown overcoming his Prudence and risking an early bath. Luke also reviews the latest Populus Survey which finds the Parliamentary Conservative Party as nasty and divided as ever.

The PLP are 83% or more in agreement on all but one issue. The greatest clear blue water is in schools:

"Private schools appear as a sharp dividing line. More than four fifths of Labour MPs (85 per cent) believe “it would be better for the country if everyone who sends their children to private schools chose to send them to state schools instead”, a view backed by only 7 per cent of Tory MPs."

Dave-id Cameron must surely be in the 7% as Maggie Thatcher would have been? He's got some explaining to do to his churlish chums. Political Betting seem to think Cameron's in deep trouble. Commentators disagree.

Luke carries the French tally aussi. Three posts in 20 minutes. Nothing whatsoever on Hazel Blears. Has Luke finally realised the game's up?

Slave Labour: Burger King Needs Another Nudge

Imagine getting up before dawn, tramping a dusty road to the fields, and picking and carrying TWO TONNES of tomatoes before sunset. All for $50 (£25). 40 to 50 cents for each 32 pound bucket. Assuming you are not "owned" by a slaver. Five gangmaster rings including 1,000 slaves have been busted by the US Department of Justice in these Florida fields.

McDonalds have followed Pizza Hut and Kentucky Fried Chicken in committing to do right by field workers in terms of wages and human rights. So far Burger King have refused to budge. They need another nudge.
This campaign is coordinated by a US Church network called Sojourners and you can join their e-list here. All faiths and none welcome.

The Burger King system operates more than 11,350 restaurants in all 50 states and in 58 countries and territories around the world. Ninety-one percent of Burger King restaurants are owned and operated by independent franchisees, many of them family-owned operations that have been in business for decades. In fiscal year ending June 30, 2002, Burger King had system-wide sales of $11.3 billion. Visit the company's website at www.burgerking.com.

UPDATE: Burgerking URL is fixed, sorry.

YouGov: Lib Dems Slump, Tories Slip, Labour Rally

Iain Dale, bless, makes today's You Gov poll for The Sunday Times into quite a good thing, or at least not really a bad thing for Dave-id Cameron's Cuddly Nu Tories.

While I agree with Iain that this is more disheartening news for the Lib Dems I must say that his predictions of a temporary Blair-going bounce followed by a temporary Brown-coming bounce seem extraordinarily optimistic for his party.

The longer Brown is in the job it seems to me that the more substantial he and Labour will be. The longer with Cameron ... the more vaccuous he and the Tories will seem.

The minor parties strength (16% to the LDs 14%) reflects recent devolved elections. In a general election some of these voters will also come home to Labour in my opinion.

The most likely to stay put - as UKIP and BNP and EDs - are right wingers appalled by Dave-id's betrayal of their right wing values. These minor supporters will damage Tories by staying in their sad shards.

Labour needs to get back some more of our core, as we see already with the prospect of Brown, as well as hanging onto the know-a-good-thing-when-we-see-it third way converts who will always prefer what they've got to an untrusted alternative.

At this rate a punt at 100+ seat majority is not even as daft as it was one week ago. And 50-100 is looking sane. We await Luke Akehurst's poll time punditry with interest. It's now in.