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UK-elections-2007: BNP Came Close in Wales
The fascist BNP came within 2,500 votes of a seat in the Welsh Assembly report Doughty. They also took almost 25% in Manchester's Higher Blackley ward - an old fascist haunt, but a very young face and a strong Lib Dem style campaign. More than 700 votes from a standing start.
Their old stager in Miles Platting and Newton Heath lost half his votes as they concentrated on the new seat. This allowed the Lib Dems to come close, whereas they did nothing in Higher Blackley. Say no more.
This BNP candidate is quite a character. I'll fit in a blog just about him and his history over the last four years before too long. May not be today or tomorrow. But soon.
I'm beginning to think my predictions on main party seats are going to be closer than some Tory analysts' projections, though the Lib Dems look set for a worse night and Labour may hold even more net.
Oswestry "Staffordshire", isn't it Shropshire Iain?
2 comments:
Here are the BNP's list percentages
South Wales W 5.5%
North Wales 5.1%
South Wales E 4.7%
South Wales C 3.8%
Mid Wales 2.9%
4 list seats in each area.
Areas that had overrepresentation of Labour through FPTP means the list seats go to PC/Tory/Lib Dem
So in South Wales West, Labour got all 7 FPTP seats on only 35.8% on the vote. As a result, BNP would have needed 14,410 votes to win a seat. As they only got 8,993, that's not likely.
OTOH, Neath was vulnerable to Plaid, Bridgend and Gower to the Tories, and Swansea West to Lib Dems. Had Labour lost a seat to each party, BNP would have only needed 10,113 votes to win a seat.
North Wales is slightly better-balanced, with 5 Labour, 3 PC and 1 Tory
PC had 300 more votes than the Tories on the list, so the 4th list seat came down to 12,639 adjusted votes Plaid, 12,556 votes Tories. BNP thus needed 12,640 votes to get elected. They actually got 9,986 votes. So they were 2,654 votes short.
In South Wales East, BNP needed 12,956 votes. They actually got 8,940.
Thanks anonymous. Very useful. The fight goes on. Lib Dems and others must certainly stop flirting with these people to mutial advantage.
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