UK-elections-2007, Manchester Council Predictions: How Did LOL Do?

And what was LOL up to? Clearly when it comes to a fiercely unofficial, fiercely independent but fiercely partisan Labour blog there has to be an element of spin or at least awareness of the fact that whatever is published is over-looked by opponents, in any predictions made.

So inevitably not as literal as national predictions where LOL was spookily close on the Labour losses but was perhaps as surprised as Ming and all the MSM punters at the sad collapse of Libdemology nationally. And incidentally by a lack of real progress for the Greens, UKIP and the BNP.

Previewed HERE. Full results here.

In alphabetical order the key wards with predictions first, then updates:

Ancoats and Clayton: Much increased majority for Labour. Prediction - 250? Dodgy Danny routed.
In fact the rout was more complete with a margin of more than 1,000 votes. Well done Mick Loughman. As a LOL reader commented on election night of this and Bradford wards: "Our work here is done".
Baguley: Lynn Worthington is an Independent Socialist Save Our Baby Unit, which is interesting. Not really.
But Lynn did get a commendable 251 votes. Unusually good for an independent.
Burnage: We said - Close run thing, a real two horse race, with Labour's Frank Duffy a real stayer on the near side. Too close to call.
This was not that close and despite his alleged Nazi Salute in the Council Chamber the Lib Dem increased his majority though our man Frank is literally loved by many in the area. Let's hope he gives it another whirl in 2008. Turn out of 32% indicates a strong campaign from two parties and shows the way forward.
Cheetham: Former councillor and PPC for Gorton the news whore solicitor Mr Kassim Afzal was dropped for taxi man Sham Raja. Big increase in majority for Cllr Afzal Khan. 250?
As with Ancoats this was blog blag. Afzal increased the majority by a factor of 1700%. 18 times 2006. Kassim Afzal - who is pretty unpopular with the Lib Dem powers that be - is working his nuts off in Gorton constituency recruiting members and trying to make sure that his rivals are not able to off him as PPC for this cherished seat. Incumbent Sir Gerald Kaufman - is however looking forward to twenty more years.
Chorlton: Increased majority for Angela Gallagher. 250-300. Bloody nose for Leech and his "Bastards" lackey.
Well, this was the one that really went the wrong way. All sorts of reasons. Could have gone either way and finished 42 to them. The charmless and shameless Norman Lewis was muttering about this prediction being wrong. As I swept by to relay the news to the Press Hordes I replied: "That was a blog blag" and it was. John Leech has now taken more than £23,000 of Angela Gallagher's money, after her accidental victory, and also her living. But at least she has had a year of her council career in more pleasant company and will now have a chance to work up her explosive diaries. In a sense this is a Lib Dem hold, but it certainly feels like a defeat.
Chorlton Park: John Hacking (Labour) some progress but Shameless Lib Dems weigh in.
About right. They had to work a bit harder for it. But this is a classic Lib Dem ward with a jumble of separate communities with strangely different reasons for backing the yellow peril whatever muppet (no offence) they put up.
City Centre: Right Wing Independent Kin Cheng takes votes from Tories and Lib Dems. Kathy Crotty in with a chance for Labour. Whiney Rob Adlard may surprise for Tories. Absentee and almost de-selected Lib Dem Kenny Dobson defending. And Brigit Vollm for the Greens. This is one of just two three or four horse races in town. 1-2-3 could be in any order.
Probably seriously overestimated Tory appeal with that last remark. Tories overtook the Greens for third last time but they do seem to have hit their peak at that. Rob Adlard was gutted. Hopefully Kathy Crotty will not be snapped up by another ward and will take her chance to unseat Marc Ramsbottom, the Lib Dems only credible councillor in the ward, next time. LOL can reveal exclusively that postal vote returns will be getting more than a second glance in this ward.
Didsbury East: "Chicken" Geoff Bridson (Labour) tackles Helen "D" Fisher (Lib Dem). Chance of an upset.
Business as usual. Sad to say. Lib Dems pulled away a little. Perhaps punters betting on outcome?
Gorton South: Home seat of the wobbling Lib Dem leader Simon Ashley with Julie Reid standing for no nonsense Labour. Another chance of an upset. Reduced majority is best Libs can hope for.
Slight blag that. And a slight increase in the Lib Dem majority. Interestingly no BNP here, little BNP effort in Newton Heath and Miles Platting. And little Lib Dem effort in Higher Blackley.
Gorton North: Labour Gain. 250 majority.
A close run thing but this was another of the small group of likeable Lib Dems defending. If even Labour people like 'em there is always a chance the people will pick up on that also.
Higher Blackley: Joe Finnon, the BNP student rabble rouser and undercover infiltrator moves across from Fallowfield and Gorton South which helps the Lib Dems. This was for a time hot Fash country with a sadly departed Lamb and Flag PH a focus. Shirley Reeve of UKIP also pitches for the right wingers. Labour to scatter these pretenders. Increased turn out and majority.
Turnout was increased, the Labour vote went up marginally, Tory and Lib and UKIP and Green votes all went down in the face of new candidature from the BNP.
Hulme: Former PPC Steve Durrant and anti-fash and anti-war activist (Green) stands again after being humbled into third last time in the Green's "stronghold". Labour hold with increased majority for Mary Murphy. 150-200.
Correct. Greens bounced back into second as Lib Dems melted away - an electoral pact was certainly in deep discussion and the Greens hardly campaigned in any seat and certainly not in Lib Dem target seats - but Mary increased her own majority massively from 2004 and built an extra 100 onto the 240 achieved by Nigel Murphy - no relation - in 2006.
Longsight: Another Labour gain. 500-600 majority.
This was of course a classic blog blag and although Mariam Khan achieved a 900 majority in 2006 the local branch refused to be advised to select a further woman candidate and to avoid a stand off the decision was reversed. More fool them. No offence. Sometimes expectant candidates have to do the right thing for the party locally, the people, and of course towards the next general election victory in the constituency.
Miles Platting and Newton Heath: Yes, we have Derek Adams for the BNP (he's bananas), Lisa Duffy competing with him in UKIP colours, June Hitchin for Labour and erstwhile Lab, Ind, UKIP now Lib Dem Damien O'Connor. June to win but a slightly dented majority.
There was more than a slight dent. The BNP lost HALF their vote from disinterest and working elsewhere. UKIP and Tories also. Lib Dem (ex-UKIP, ex-Independent, ex-Labour, ex-Criminal) got to within 61 votes. Bit of a blame game going on.
Rusholme: Nahella Ashraf is Respect's candidate. Bit too keen on the Labour bashing even among friends - e.g. Tony Lloyd MP at Pakistan Earthquake appeal supper had to hear a silly tirade. But she's a good worker and will take votes mostly from Lib Dems as Labour recover. This is the other close 3-way. Possible Labour Gain with very outside chance of a Respect first.
Both Labour and Respect vote slipped a little as Lib Dems held comfortably. All three parties had Asian candidates this time unlike 2006 when only Respect did. This changes the dynamic.
Whalley Range: Labour gain for the experienced and hard-working Kath Fry over the inexperienced and you know irredeemably lazy Faraz Bhatti. 350 majority.
Taking nothing away from my remark about the Lib Dem being a lazy pretender, whose family enjoy a terrible reputation in some quarters, there was a successful defence. Far more work from the Lib Dems than for the woman candidate who lost spectacularly in 2006. She spoke up on doorsteps saying that she wouldn't mind if the BNP won some seats so that she could debate with them in the Council Chamber. Wrong idea, an interesting insight, but not a factor. Faraz elected in 2004, neglected ward 'til Christmas 2006, re-elected on impression management and fibbery.

Most interesting of the rest:
Bradford: Only a few years ago this was a Lib Dem ward. The last one was cleared out in 2003 despite the national picture. Again achieved a 1200 majority. This time for first time candidate Rosa Battle.
Northenden: There were 106 votes in it for another first time candidate (down from 340). Turn out up about 1%. Many congratulations to Sandra, Richard and Mike on what may be seen as the result of the night. An ecumenical matter was resolved peacefully by your peace-loving blogger.
Sharston: This is the ward with all the Dave-id Cameron interest. Where the young hoodie (now in jail) defied his curfew and conditions to throw Mr C a distinctive shape. The "Tory" candidate threw out a classic personal appeal leaflet, failing to include the party brand or name AT ALL - except in 5 point print in the P and P - and this may have accounted for an extra couple of hundred votes. Probably not a repeatable tactic as the electorate are likely to see it as more Cameron underhanded shoddiness.