Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Deputy Dawgs: Distinctly Donkey Derby


Newer Labour's latest Cruddas-philia reminds me of something. Have you noticed how a historic donkey effect has influenced the DL list?

Three candidates with surnames from the first three letters, two more on the 8th and the last on the 10th. What did the other 60% of the alphabet do wrong? In the bad old days position in the alphabet had a profound effect in alphabetically listed transferable vote situations in Australia and Ireland for example.

This was known as Donkey Voting or the Donkey Effect. But this is not all dim and distant. The donkey vote never did Bertie Ahern any harm. And there is a debate in the Scotsman about this donkey thing still influencing success as recently as May 2007.

And it is remarkable how often the candidates - of a particular party in a multi-seat or from a whole list - do better the lower they are in the A-Z.

Any other alphanumeric factors? Well yes, actually. Numbers 2 and 4 are not favourable. 6 could be better. 1, 3 and 5 are best. Auspicious for Benn; a mountain to climb for Johnson; Cruddas and Harman well-placed.

2 comments:

Tom said...

Well, I am hoping that Johnson profits the least from said effect. He's a much more credible candidate than blears. ;o)

Chris Paul said...

Absolutely. Probably not too much of a factor. But very interesting to see how the donkey effect already looks to have intervened. Selection panels - listed in alphabetical order; selection ballot papers, in alphabetical order; PLP lists of promotables, in alphabetical order ...