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YouGov: Lib Dems Slump, Tories Slip, Labour Rally
Iain Dale, bless, makes today's You Gov poll for The Sunday Times into quite a good thing, or at least not really a bad thing for Dave-id Cameron's Cuddly Nu Tories.
While I agree with Iain that this is more disheartening news for the Lib Dems I must say that his predictions of a temporary Blair-going bounce followed by a temporary Brown-coming bounce seem extraordinarily optimistic for his party.
The longer Brown is in the job it seems to me that the more substantial he and Labour will be. The longer with Cameron ... the more vaccuous he and the Tories will seem.
The minor parties strength (16% to the LDs 14%) reflects recent devolved elections. In a general election some of these voters will also come home to Labour in my opinion.
The most likely to stay put - as UKIP and BNP and EDs - are right wingers appalled by Dave-id's betrayal of their right wing values. These minor supporters will damage Tories by staying in their sad shards.
Labour needs to get back some more of our core, as we see already with the prospect of Brown, as well as hanging onto the know-a-good-thing-when-we-see-it third way converts who will always prefer what they've got to an untrusted alternative.
At this rate a punt at 100+ seat majority is not even as daft as it was one week ago. And 50-100 is looking sane. We await Luke Akehurst's poll time punditry with interest. It's now in.
5 comments:
Blimey Chris you really do have an optimistic view on life! Gordon Brown to win the next election by 100 seats? Is he going to call one on June 28th then while he's bouncing in the polls?
What's he going to do - pull all the troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan, organise an interest rate drop, give back all the money he's swiped in stealth taxes and put Tony Blair on trial for war crimes and selling honours? I'd heard that was the big plan for his 100 days - not the first day.
You must know something that the rest of us don't.
I would like some of whatever you are having, Chris. Where is the evidence for this ?????? Why sudden enthisiasm for Brown? He's New Labour to the core and frankly moves like doing nowt to get troops out of Iraq sacking Remploy workers won't get me rooting for him.I will be @ anti-war demo next Sunday.
Hi Diablo
I think if you read carefully you'll find 100+ seats considered "not even as daft as it was one week ago" - still daft though; 50+ is "looking sane"; 1-49 might be "even saner" though strictly I'm not sure there are degrees of sanity in these matters.
The YouGov Poll gets us back into winning a majority. According to the calculators. Not just the most seats. A majority.
Yes, I am an optimist. Very useful attribute for socialists. For the time being our struggle is not among ourselves but against the Tories, Lib Dems and Nationalist parties.
Why would I not be enthusiastic at such polls Susan? And analyse them as I have? And yes when I am baiting Tories in particular I am going to be very enthusiastic about Brown. You should try it. Laughter is the best medicine and if you post something enthusiastic about Brown that'd have us all rolling in the aisles (and the Isles).
He is now our party leader. He won fair and square on the current system - and it's a given that that system is crap. And he is IMO a recovery from Blair. Do you think he is worse?
Long may he continue to bite chunkc out of Cameron's Tory legs. So he hasn't got a leg to stand on if at all possible.
Best w
chris P
As have already said on my blog, Chris,the minute he does something I'm enthusiastic about I will post it. BTW if the method of electing the Leader is crap how can you say he won fair and square?? An oxymoron, no.PS: He could start by signing up to the EU Charter on Workers' Rights.
Susan: You could be enthusiastic about the upturn in the polls and attach it to Brown's perceived position way to the left of Blair (Channel 4 tonight, see later post and click through) though they are saying he is desperately trying to claw back to the muddle. When he finds it plays very well he may change his tune I suppose.
Or you could be enthusiastic that he has 60% rating as heavyweight vs Cameron on 15%. Or that the Lib Dems are going down the toilet.
Or you could acknowledge that he won it fair and square on the rules we have. We have had around 20 years to get these changed to something more open, more serviceable, more democratic.
We've not managed that by negotiation (scarcely attempted) or confrontation (repulsed). We need to learn from that. But in the meantime get on with beating Tories in Rossendale and Calder Valley and Lib Dems in Manchester and Leeds and Sheffield. That's the job now IMO.
Leave the public infighting to the Tories and Lib Dems. Seek to influence and even subvert but it does not help working people or anyone except the opposition to disengage.
Best w
Chris P
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