Sunday, July 15, 2007

Ealing Southall: Miscellaneous Odds and Sods

Lib Dem Voice, being Lib Dems, are familiar with dirty campaign tactics, innuendo and hoaxes. Now they are guilty of psychological projection in accusing Tom Watson of trying to smear them, or being wrong.

Not guilty on both counts. Tom reports police being called to some party political argy-bargey involving unnamed oppositionists. Absolutely true. According to the LDV account Tories (one party) were scrapping with Supporters (not Labour, so at least two parties) and Lib Dem activists were involved only by arriving at the scene as this kicked off (so two or three parties in all).

There are nominally ELEVEN strands of Opposition in Ealing Southall, even discounting two folded independents there are NINE. Methinks these Lib Dems protest too much in this case. Why do they try to smear Tom by claiming he meant the Lib Dems rather than permutations of the other eight? Guilty feet, no rhythm etc etc.

This has also been a day of speculation on whether the outing of Tony Lit even further as an opportunist could come back to bite Labour by driving votes to the Lib Dems. It seems to me that, having had the info for four weeks Labour have played this beautifully.

The calculation for "why now?": anti-Labour element of PVs on balance may have gone to Lit who is of course a Sikh and a smoothy. However if Lit's war position is known - there's quite a chance he was all for it, I don't know - the Libs will also get a fair run in PVs. But perhaps the Tories will be ahead of the two as the bookies have had them.

Then all this beautifully timed Lit-bashing puts the 2nd and 3rd back together at say 25% and leaves Labour safe at say 40%. Greens and Respect a few points down, sharing 10% or so with the Independents. Great timing IMO from Watson.

Political Betting also seem worried about this but thinking Lit could benefit by showing he has influence across several parties.

It boosts Lit's profile certainly. As an opportunistic rogue though. Is that the image the Tories want to press home? What with the single issue hothead Gurcharan Singh and the Hounslow "defectors" who crossed to the Tories via a community party standing for "Total Democracy" and founded by a former NF organiser and ABH jailbird it is surely the Tories looking all wrong here?

Every now and then some wag will reel out the joke about the age old cliff top dilemma:

There is a Tory opponent and a Lib Dem opponent standing on the proverbial cliff top.

Which do you push off first?

Chorus: The Tory!


Business before pleasure!

Make no mistake Tom Watson's eyes are set on Dave-id Cameron himself with this latest development.

The polls are running for Labour. All this defection trouble is showing up Cameron more and more by the minute. And having some by-election smarts TW has waited until the voting is almost over! There are a high proportion of votes in most constituencies now that are executed by post. They aren't usually wait-until-the-last-minute types. Most will already be in the box.

The timing of this intervention will turn off some tribal Tories for the walk up vote. But many of them, in a three-way fight, still have enough self respect to back their hearts or not vote at all. They won't back the Lib Dem.

Nearby Nigel may get some swings at this stage but I do think this will be fairly limited. The whole thing must be looking a bit confused all round. Which favours the incumbent. Sharma is the closest to Piabra in style and approach. A safe bet with 25 years of delivery in the Borough.

He will win with a sound majority. At the next General Election - particularly if it is June 2009 - he may even stand aside having had his short but sweet ten minutes.

Then we will have an All Women Shortlist and more fun and games.

Tapestry has been commenting left, right and centre on this story I think. But the home blog doesn't cover it. Instead it is about shooting down the Europhiles - before it's too late. Deselecting them. Driving them away. Managing to combine a "nothing against gays" line, with the idea that "gay" names like Quentin (and John and Ken?) can help sniff 'em out ... Cuddly Nu Tories. Don't you just love them?


Anonymous said...

"There are a high proportion of votes in most constituencies now that are executed by post"

how many people applied for postal votes? Is it known?

Chris Paul said...

Sorry Andrea I don't know that for this constituency. But that is the pattern.

I suspect that given all the history there will have been quite a tradition of PVs in the area and that many will have renewed them under the new arrangements.

This is the best explanation for this timing.

I am also predicting one or two bits of bad news for Tories and/or Lib Dems in the next three days to help with the walk up vote.

Sedgefield was over before it started but this one has been absolutely fascinating.

Tapestry said...

left right and centre? so have you chris! at least I have a sense of humour....but that as usual seems to have escaped your antenna.
...there was another guy called Crisp (All). His first name was Quentin too.

The supposed shock that Tony Lit contributes to dinner tickets at the Asian Business Club will take some getting over.

Labour have ensured Tony will get national coverage by running with this non-story. I detect a fist clunking. He's giving Lit some soft feeds here as well as multi-million pound media equivalent.

Glad I caught your attention. No edits now. Please read my original post - Paul's version is not quite what I said - as you would expect from a meister spin doctor - not.

Chris Paul said...

Yes, please do read the amusing homo and europhobic rant for yourselves.

Lit could be more of a threat next time. This time he is a busted flush, and the other defectors are also nothing to right home about unless it's a debt to Sikh separists and NF fellow travellers that you want to enter into.

Tapestry said...

There are said to be 50 Labour MPs who will rebel against Brown over the EU Constitution. This not only a Conservative issue. Brown could lose a key vote on Europe in Parliament over this.

Sorry about the phobic rant, but I know how much you (left wing) bloggers won't read anything too intelligently written. After all you've got the Guardian for that!