Thursday, October 18, 2007

European Treaty: Will June 2009 General Election Help the UKIP Ultras Screw Cameron?

Ben Brogan wonders aloud whether Cameron would or could unpick that blessed EU Treaty. He suggests too that an election in June 2009, as I have been predicting since Brown took over (just stick June 2009 in the blog search), would worry Cam about a UKIP takeover.

Surely it should assist the Tories in annihilating UKIP MEPs by weight of numbers as well as swamping the BNP's tattered cadre?

If Cam is actually currently worried about UKIP crossing into UK Parliament and taking a few seats or splitting votes in a bigger way than in the past - as man-in-the-know Brogan suggests - then all talk of Tory recovery must surely be considered massively over-stated?

Cameron's Tories know full well that :

* they will not in fact be campaigning to get out of Europe;

* they have nothing but trivial quibbles with the Treaty itself and they do know that it is an amending Treaty and that no other country barring Ireland is Referending on it (and they have to by law);


* having "done the country in" in lumbering the UK of the regions with the far more significant issues of Maastricht, without one, they will be seen as quite weak on the referendum question anyway.

They also know that the message in the above poster is not one they can tango with in Paris or elsewhere.

Interesting times. Timothy Garton Ash said bring it on referendum wise but only after calling it a Cameron Con and a Hague Hoax with the Tories' vision for a brave new world built on a confidence trick.

POSTER: Is a ? Hungarian Nationalist Eurosceptic one reproduced on the Euroscepticism wiki page.


Anonymous said...

The question the Tories refuse to answer is what they would replace the amending Treaty with - and given that they at least officially want to stay in the EU to replace it with nothing would be totally irresponsible? Have they any bright ideas on which they could get the other members to agree - so that the enlarged Community is workable.

Or perhaps the answer is that they just want to make the EU unworkable?

Chris Paul said...

They don't they do they? They just want to pretend they're against some big bad wolf that they don't even believe in themselves. But they know it's a dog whistle as ears prick up and as UKIP have done rather well with nothing else whatsoever to offer. (But UKIP clearly do want to get the UK out, unless they're in prison and/or drawing gravy).

Liam Murray said...

Timothy Garton Ash is one of the few people on either side of this debate to be entirely honest in his reasoning.

Chris Paul said...

Yes, TGA is not always right by any means but he does construct a decent argument as he makes his points.