European Treaty: Will June 2009 General Election Help the UKIP Ultras Screw Cameron?

Ben Brogan wonders aloud whether Cameron would or could unpick that blessed EU Treaty. He suggests too that an election in June 2009, as I have been predicting since Brown took over (just stick June 2009 in the blog search), would worry Cam about a UKIP takeover.

Surely it should assist the Tories in annihilating UKIP MEPs by weight of numbers as well as swamping the BNP's tattered cadre?

If Cam is actually currently worried about UKIP crossing into UK Parliament and taking a few seats or splitting votes in a bigger way than in the past - as man-in-the-know Brogan suggests - then all talk of Tory recovery must surely be considered massively over-stated?

Cameron's Tories know full well that :

* they will not in fact be campaigning to get out of Europe;

* they have nothing but trivial quibbles with the Treaty itself and they do know that it is an amending Treaty and that no other country barring Ireland is Referending on it (and they have to by law);

and

* having "done the country in" in lumbering the UK of the regions with the far more significant issues of Maastricht, without one, they will be seen as quite weak on the referendum question anyway.

They also know that the message in the above poster is not one they can tango with in Paris or elsewhere.

Interesting times. Timothy Garton Ash said bring it on referendum wise but only after calling it a Cameron Con and a Hague Hoax with the Tories' vision for a brave new world built on a confidence trick.

POSTER: Is a ? Hungarian Nationalist Eurosceptic one reproduced on the Euroscepticism wiki page.

Dear Dave: Why You Must Replace Nadine Dorries as PC in Mid Beds

Dear Dave

You have until close of business today to replace Ms Nadine Bargery-Dorries Mum-P as Conservative candidate for the Mid Bedfordshire constituency.

As you will remember Nadine was parachuted in from nowhere (Rochdale?) to replace yet another disgraced Tory - caught enriching himself with paid for parliamentary tours and also uttering mad bills such as "The Queen Should Be Elected". The people of Mid Beds like all their peers deserve to have a decent MP, whichever party they emanate from.

Here are some prima facie reasons to can Nadine:

1. Her 2000-2001 curriculum vitae issued by the Conservatives contains hardly one straightforward true fact. She wasn't born in a council house. She hardly nursed in hospitals at all and was only basically qualified. She did however work as cabin crew. She was not married to Paul Dorries in Zambia. She was never a Company Director of BUPA itself. Perhaps she did advise Oliver Letwin? Some of his ideas were wonky enough. Didn't he have a Fantasy Island?

2. Conservatives in Hazel Grove tried and succeeded for a time in having her stopped as their PPC. They were later over-ruled. No-one in the area understands why. But she distinguished herself during the campaign with a barefoot photo saying "Nadine: She'll Knock Your Socks Off!" and by taking a robust pro-choice line when faced with the moderately anti-choice line of Andrew Stunnell (Lib Dem, incumbent) and the strongly Anti-Choice line of Martin Miller (Labour).

3. Having been beaten Nadine pressed on with what I rather think were ill-advised property developments in both the Cotswolds and in Cheshire. Both included a glorified nailbar and tat shop named Gorgeous! though only the Cheshire outlet - "first of a chain!" - actually opened. After getting into serious Health and Safety trouble over dangerous working conditions. Nadine seriously over-estimated the stupidity and fecklessness of footballers wives and other East Cheshire Folk replacing a beloved and reasonably priced chocolates and gift ship with a shiny over-priced tat outlet. In which, local people tell me, stupid rich people could buy GUCCI golden dog tags for literally £100s. Few if any in Prestbury are that stupid. It failed utterly. One local businessperson spoke to me of a "flit". Constituency officers tell me they refused to talk to her after this retail vandalism. Though she told the local paper a pack of inexactitudes. How she had made a killing selling it on. How she'd just opened it to cash in on Cheshire gulls. She didn't quite say that to be fair. Five years on the shop still stands empty, a disgraceful reminder of Nadine Dorries ridiculousness for all to see. Its sale had been completed in June 2005. Her bitter-sweet farewell interview in the paper two months before. Local Conservatives curse her openly. They pretty much literally sent her to Coventry.

4. At the time of the Gorgeous! debacle - the second O in the brand being a hand-drawn heart, natch! - she lived in a big house (currently back on the market for £1.5M) nr Prestbury and she and "hubbie" (were they ever really married?) Paul lived literally a jet set lifestyle, off no visible means of support. Were they simply living off money from the sale of their nursery business? and borrowed off the back of their grandiose Cheshire and Cotswolds property portfolio and millionare bravado? Were all their dealings open and above board? Well actually no they weren't. Apart from the business sold to BUPA early doors none, not one of the Paul or Paul and Nadine limited companies EVER filed returns or accounts. Paul bought some farmland and bussed in some Polish labour to build and refurbish on it. Word is that both their big house and this part-finished development were sold to payback anxious lenders. One of their companies "Domicilias" (Doh! Me Silly Arse), the one the HSE roughed up over the unsafe working conditions at the Gorgeous shop - remained in hock to the Bank of Scotland at the time it went under, with a fixed and floating charge over a Bollington property. No doubt to the Bank's chagrin this proved to be a terraced tiddler which sold for only £100,000 - around mid 2007. A popular date for such things as it will turn out.

5. By now a couple of the Cotswold properties in Chipping Campden that passed through Dorries hands had been long sold and the two that remained were some kind of hybrid medieval self-catering four-postered flat come Bed and Breakfast. With a totally illegal uPVC and polycarbonate conservatory hung on the back of the very listed buildings. We don't actually know much about the earlier property sales but we do know that on these two, those in Cheshire, and the one in Seaview South Africa the Dorries pair were in to various banks in Britain and elsewhere for fortunes. And still not very much by way of visible revenue streams.

6. In 2005 all that changed when Ms Nadine Bargery-Dorries became the Mum-P for the long-suffering "safe" Mid Bedfordshire seat. Quids in! She had promised throughout the campaign that she would relocate her main home to her constituency should she be elected. She even repeated that in her spin doctoring over the collapse and sale of her Gorgeous over-priced tat shop in Prestbury. From this point onwards Nadine was mainly domiciled in her "second" home in Woburn - according to neighbours at both ends of the road between Chipping Campden and Woburn. There was one taxi ride from Westminster to Chipping Campden (£123 in 2005). When challenged by the Telegraph Nadine admitted that she scarcely set foot in any other home and began this mantra of her main home being "somewhere else". Nadine had refused to even tell the Fees Office where this main home actually was. Without this the Fees Office clearly should not have provided any second home expenses. But they annotated the forms along the lines that they were giving her the benefit of the doubt.

7. From the get go in 2005 until June 2009 a "spare" property in Chipping Campden, from which an income was received and a holiday home in South Africa, were repeatedly recorded in Nadine's parliamentary Register of Members' Interests. In fact in line with her promise to relocate to Mid Bedfordshire the Chipping Campden properties were being gently, robustly and then more and more desperately marketed for sale. Paul and Nadine had it seems spent an excessive amount of money on the refurbishments including that plastic outhouse, on the business, and on themselves. They could never "get out" with a surplus. The banks were however determined to get as much of their money out as possible and both these properties were sold at very substantially under the asking prices during 2007. So, by her own admission, Nadine had hardly spent any time in any home she owned or rented other than her constituency house but for at least the latter stages of 2006 and in 2007 until titles were transferred these addresses were apparently not even available. Vacant possession. And certainly post-transfer in 2007 and in 2008 and 2009 they were owned by the lucky buyers. The Holiday Home in South Africa had been repossessed in our Spring 2007 and sold that June so the Associated Bank of South Africa could get their money out. So why Dave did Nadine's Register entry not reflect the actualité?

8. Throughout this period and to this day Nadine has maintained certain links in the Cotswolds. I don't know exactly. Doctors, vetinarians, opticians, dentists, perhaps hairdressers and nailbars? That kind of thing anyway. And youngest daughter Cassandra of course stayed with her dad not far away, in Stratford upon Avon I believe, to complete her GCSE studies. Though through her lawyers Nadine has stated that she has not been imagining she would be calling her estranged partner's various living accommodation her "main home" for parliamentary expenses purposes. Way too far-fetched! This of course must lead all reasonable people - even Conservatives - to scratch their heads and wonder where on earth Nadine has been counting as her main home .. until that is she began to rent a rather small keeper's cottage in a hamlet in the vicinity of Moreton in the Marsh. Just as they must obviously be wondering why she needs a HUGE seven-bed manorhouse as a constituency pied a terre.

9. Now, briefly, to Paul Dorries, the man to whom the early CCHQ press release said Nadine had married on her return from Zambia, but who Nadine claimed in her maiden speech I think it was she had married in Zambia before their return and the arrival of firstborn Pippa Storm. Of which nuptials there are no trace by the way in any official records. Which also of course goes for the divorce/separation/estrangement which followed late 2006/early 2007. Though there were press announncements. Will that do? Decree Mail-on-Sunday Absolute? Anyway, I digress, as you Dave from correspondence with a Mr Dorries' customer or two he has been plying a trade as an investment advisor (untrained and unlicensed as far as anyone can tell) whose "healing hands" have managed away some of the funds of various widow women through unsuccessful punts with spread betting firms, and also in businesses he or his good friends were he said carrying on. Your correspondents may even have told you that Nadine herself told them she had funds under management with her "isn't he clever" partner with one of these spreads companies, though I'm not so sure she ever did? And they might have told you about the shares (almost typed snares, oops) he gave them in his friends brilliant IT/telecoms start up too? She certainly recently blogged a pile of tosh about an FSA and City of London police investigation that is actually NOT as far as anyone can tell going on into the spreads trading matters.

10. Last, for the moment, but by no means least, you may wish to factor in the very strange way in which Nadine joined and then left the Board of Directors of a strange little company called The Sleepcurve Company Limited. It markets groovy curved mattresses and cot liners - Beds and Cots - on the basis of avoiding some rather unlikely serious conditions. The last accounts before Nadine joined made it look a little insolvent. Her addition along with the Company's inspiration Phillip Owen, who has a Diploma in Osteopathy inter alia and who is a Paediatric Cranial Osteopath and a big cuddly smoothie, came in mid 2009 around the time that she finally got her Register of Members Interests up to date. She left this January, as did Philip Owen. Is that linked to the other stuff at all?

There you go Dave. Without even referring to the ridiculous employment of two apparently unsuitable daughters on her taxpayer funded staff and at ridiculous salary points to boot; or Nadine's ridiculous nonsense in the job we have given you lots of reasons to make Nadine step aside as your PC in Mid Bedfordhire. I'm not sure there will be anything here that you don't already know as you and Nadine are such chums and you have after all been approached for assistance too.

So why don't you pull the plug before it's too late?

Her original CV does not check out. She has owned several companies with her Paul but complied with Companies House requirements in only one case. There are a number of failed businesses and property repossessions. She hasn't been open about her main home arrangements and given her lack of time in any such home any she might offer seem unlikely to qualify anyway. Her second home is ridiculously huge. Rubbing the electorate's faces in the parliamentary expenses mess I'd have thought? And she is very clearly very aware indeed of her husband's various business runnings. She has made that plain on her blog.

Do the right thing Dave. You've an hour or so to get yourself a new candidate.

Yours sincerely

Chris Paul

Labour of Love

Video from Bloggerheads published at almost the same moment. Synchronicity rocks! Watch and comment at You Tube HERE.

Nadine Dorries Fairy Tale Cottage: Which of these Photographs Shows the Main Home Do You Think?

So, further to the LOL tease last night, the Telegraph have today printed the above two photographs of Nadine Dorries Mum-P alleged dwellings. Now online. One of them is a "main home" and the other a "second home". Can you tell which is which yet? The fact is that the supposed main home would fit approximately ten times into the second home. Without counting the sprawling outbuildings.

At this moment the Telegraph have estimated that the rent on the main home could be £800 per month. That seems high sided. Particularly if none of the Dorries clan are actually living at the address. Why would anyone pay £9,600 a year to rent a virtually unused property? The Telegraph article also states a figure of £60,524 for "second home" claims since 2006. That's just the rental element I reckon.

LOL expect further details of this contrived arrangement to emerge in due course and provide some questions below which might just assist in the discovery process.

So, has Nadine Bargery-Dorries Mum-P rented this fairy-tale country cottage continuously since 2006?

Are the Telegraph satisfied that for the 2005-2006 term one of the Chipping Campden High Street addresses was available and actually used - not a building site or an operational B&B - as the Mum-P's main home?

Why was a single "spare" owned property in the Cotswolds declared in the RMI from mid-2005 to mid-2009?

Surely for some of this period there were two spares?

Surely for the majority of this period these homes were NOT available to the Mum-P as either "main home" or spares?

Surely indeed for much of the period - after marketing with vacant possession, "no chain", "priced to sell" (eventually) - the title in them had been transferred to new owners?

So why, like the South African holiday home, apparently lost to the bailiffs in Spring 2007, was a Cotswold property from which an income was received, which would need to be a "spare" - not a main or second home - listed in the Mum-P's RMI until June 2009?

We repeat: When did the tenancy at the gate-keeper's cottage commence?

Has there been any significant occupancy by Nadine Bargery-Dorries Mum-P or her family during the period of the tenancy?

Has there been any other occupation of the address by third parties during that period? Holiday lets for example?

Is there a landline telephone at the property and switched on utilities that will show a pattern of use consistent with the claim that this fairy-tale cottage is now or ever has been in use as the "main home" of the Bargery-Dorries clan?

Who or what entity is Nadine Bargery-Dorries Mum-P's landlord for this bijou Cotswold property?

And what are the true rental amount and council tax arrangements for this Marie Antoinette play house property?

Who or what entity is Nadine Bargery-Dorries Mum-P's landlord for the sprawling Woburn farmstead, with extensive views from several of the generously proportioned double bedrooms over the neighbour's Safari Park?

And what are the true rental amount and council tax arrangements for that Brobdignagian giant house property?

Why, tell us please, does a "single mum" actually NEED a seven-bedroom farmhouse in Woburn? Are there no two-bedroom flats on the market in the whole of the Mid Bedfordshire constituency? Now that would be scandalous!

To be continued .. er, probably.

Sleepcurve China: Is That Nadine Dorries Mum-P Infomercialising?

The lovely former wife of Ms Nadine Bargery-Dorries Mum-P's ex-just-good-friend "Stephen Rhodes", is a stalwart QVC hostess. One of the finest exponents of the craft. And much-loved by her customers and her blog readers. But I had no idea that Nadine (above right?) also did infomercials. What a spooky coincidence that would be.

Stephen Rhodes, born Thomas "Tommy" Keenan, a BBC local radio Shock Jock (most people) or an "award-winning investigative journalist" (in his own writ, most just short lists , seconds and thirds as it goes), latterly spoofing The Daily Telegraph as fictional deep throat "Tom Bargery", ready to ruin his not-girlfriend for 40 pieces of silver, recently became an independent candidate in Luton South. Standing against Esther Rantzen.

Esther Rantzen being someone that Nadine Bargery-Dorries Mum-P has apparently taken against in a big way. Following their appearance together on an edition of BBC Question Time. Apparently prima donna Esther unfairly hogged the powder puffs. A mortal sin if 'twere true.

Someone too who stands in the way of a Tory posh boy - and we must presume political friend of the neighbourly Nadine - making a gain in Luton in the wake of the Margaret Moran MP expenses triangle. Imagine having a main home and a second home forming a vast triangle with Westminster, and one of them, if not both, being a bit problematic?

Emnity and perceived party advantage being enough, along with Tommy's attempted "Tom Bargery" sting on behalf of Nadine, and their ever-so-close yet not-that-close friendship, to lead the Telegraph to run a front page lead story (right) suggesting that Nadine put her mate Tommy up to attacking her enemy Esther in order to help squeeze a seat for her high Lord protector Dave Cameron, whose head can be put on a stick via this link.

As LOL reported Esther provided some fascinating background.

How could they? How could the Telegraph do this to the wholly innocent and blameless Mum-P and rags to riches princess of the blogs Nadine Bargery-Dorries?

Phil Hendren writing at his Dizzy_Thinks blog called this N for Vendetta and likened Naydeen Vanessa Bargery Dorries to Marmite. In the comments process at that post he smeared the brown stuff liberally on LOL. With suggestions of libel and of untoward investigating methods, refusing to print the substance of our comment, replacing it with said smears.

LOL responded by rebuking Hendren's wretched Marmite analogy and pointing out (some of) the substantial reasons journalists and bloggers were interested in Naydeen.

We also ran the full comment rejected by Hendren. And were also happy to clarify some points from this unpublished comment - shared with Naydeen by Phil - in response to a direct email from the Mum-P.

Read it here. In which we accepted Nadine's point that she didn't actually have to register her interest in the above Sleepcurve as it was she said unremunerated, and the Registrar's Office or whatever, she said, told her not to. Though we still thought she should have done, voluntarily.

Part of the "Vendetta" twaddle arises of course from Blog Action in May 2009 - which we covered inter alia HERE in which Naydeen retaliated for Daily Telegraph enquiries by accusing the proprietors, not a Philly Soul band, The Barclay Brothers, of all sorts, including Naziism as I recall. Consevative Home covered it like this at the time. Paul Staines was more on the money we think, suggesting that Nadine needed a lie down.

More recently, when Nadine's Brobdignag and Lilliput "second" and "main" fairy tale homes were revealed by the same organ, Conservative Home head, fired apprentice and some say former romantic love interest Tim "Mr Darcy" Montgomerie, also leapt leapt to Nadine's defence crying, you've guessed it, "Barclay Brothers Vendetta".

LOL digress. Of course it isn't really Nads doing the sales assistant bit with the great lummox of a paediatric cranial osteopath above. That's her look-a-likey Fiona. But I'll be bound that Nadine does know Phillip Owen DO BSc pretty well. The man personally presenting this cornucopia of Beds and Cots products of his imagination. With a Physician's gravitas, though alas that is DiplomaO not DoctorO, and his discipline is arguably contested and ill-regulated.

Philip and Naydeen not only both served on the board of the company being advertised but also both went onto (June 2009) and resigned from (Jan 2010) the board of Directors of The Sleepcurve Company Limited on the exact same days. And for some years, as Nadine flirted about East Cheshire being a PPC and a businesswoman and resident of various local addresses, their paths may well have crossed. Who knows? Perhaps their colossal combined medical expertise was shared?

Sleepcurve's products, invented by Phillip Owen DO, are designed to save Mum-Ps and MPs generally from the appalling "fat-head syndrome". Help them sleep at nights. Something like that anyway.

Even so, LOL have been struggling to understand why Ms Nadine Bargery-Dorries Mum-P joined the board of this company, just as her life at Westminster was already getting rather complicated. Or why she left that board so very soon afterward. Just as investigative journalists and bloggers began to put two and two together.

We'll be considering this sweet little mystery further, later.

UPDATE 10:00am: Some little tweaking after a sound night's sleep.

UPDATE 11.45am: More links and pictures added.

Nadine Does the Time Warp: Left Foot In It, Right Foot In It

It is 23:30 on New Year's Eve. No, what's this? One sentence later it is 23:50. And by the time the thing is finished, presumably shorn of the crassest stupidities, impregnated with the most vital Tory lines, and posted another nine hours have passed.

Nadine Dorries MP - that bright star in the Tory firmament - is emptying her head. Into some chap's computer she is happy to share. There has perhaps been a ceasefire, even if the witching hour prospect is not apparently of New York's Time Square, or otherwise a new front has been opened.

It may be a so-called blog. But this is not a permalink:

In thirty minutes it will be midnight and I excuse myself from the table of my host for a pre arranged appointment with his computer to write my New Year blog. The words “hurry, you only have ten minutes” fly at my back. No pressure then.

It really doesn't matter how long you have Nadine. If this is to be authentic Dorries' it will not matter. It will be muppetry and twittery, of that there is no question.

He (Darcy?) follows me into his study with a bottle of the best Champagne I have ever tasted and re fills my glass. I sit in front of his computer which has a screen bigger than the TV in my lounge. This is a serious computer. It is very used to serious input and I wonder how it will react to temporary ownership by a blogging back bench opposition MP.

So called "blogging" back bench opposition MP ...

The technology contained on this desk makes me feel insignificant.

It at least has the good sense to keep its own counsel.

As I begin to type I can imagine the monitor mouthing in disgust “Oh for goodness sake!” I press very firmly before it attempts to cross its keyboard arms in protest and repel me. There is a green light at the top in the middle of the screen. I would not list paranoia as my main fault, however, this computer is either watching me or I have had too much Champagne.

What would the barking Nadine Dorries list as her main fault then? Persistent fibbery, runaway self aggrandisement, sickening lack of recognition of public-private boundaries, and going along with that, let's not forget, that faux sensitivity?

I distract myself by moving my thoughts to things more political.

Which may be post-rationalising code for some serious morning after re-writing of that arrant midnight twaddle ...

As I left Westminster before Christmas the only conversation was speculative general election chatter. Having died away during the holiday it will re ignite upon our return, if for no other reason than it can only be eighteen months away at most.

To be replaced with more arrant twaddle. 18 months being potentially a full third of a term.

In recent weeks I haven’t met anyone of any political persuasion who believes that Labour can win another term, despite the ominous arrival of Mandy - frequently spotted looking down over the debating chamber in the weeks leading up to recess.

Nadine really should get out more. From a situation of just a few hold outs here in Manchester a year ago we've now reached widespread optimism of that historic fourth term, to follow this historic third term and the extraordinary rally in the polls. Which naturally followed not only Mandy's arrival but also my own bold predictions of August 2008.

But what's this? More fascinating insights from Nadine.

My impression of Mandy is that he is both a pragmatist and a strategist. A founder and architect of New Labour, one has to assume his loyalty will be wedded to the cause above the individual.

What on earth is this supposed to mean? That here is a professional politician? Not someone who will be off helping run an oil speculators, a global tobacco empire, a property development business, a couple of city firms before breakfast, superior wallpaper for hoorays and rangers, or an after dinner speaking pantechnicon? Someone with public service and getting things done "for the many not the few" at his core. Whatever may surround that vocation.

If your overriding concern was for the New Labour project to remain in power in the long term, what would your advice to the PM be?

I'm sure Gordon Brown, and indeed Peter Mandelson too, was waiting breathless for Nadine's analysis. And this disdainful "remain in power" rather than the real "get things done for the many not the few" is so very wearing isn't it? The Tories covet the power after all. To get things done for the few not the many I'll be bound. Looking at their traditional yet painfully inexperienced line up of wealth, privilege and dilettante arrogance this conclusion if hard to escape:

Would it be based on damage limitation? Is his job to persuade the PM to go sooner, maybe in June at the same time as the Euro and local elections, rather than wait and see how bad it will be in 2010 risking even bigger defeat?

Wishful thinking from the Labour Party's second Favourite Tory "Blogger". The decision can only be based on "getting things done" and "for the many not the few" meaning that anything less than an overall majority will be extremely disappointing.

But there's more:

As the Christmas holiday period ends jobs are going to fall out of the sky like snowflakes.

Be careful what you wish for Nadine and in what contorted terms ... we know what you're trying to say, even if it is redundancies rather than jobs that you think are going to be falling, I mean rising ...

The economic picture remains gloomy and predicted job losses high and rising. If un-employment tips past the three million mark we may begin to witness civil un-rest as the poor become poorer and the poverty gap widens.

Civil unrest? Like we had last when the Tories broke thew back of the mining industry or came up with the Poll Tax instead of something based on "how big is your house" as they have recently criticised Labour for continuing? If you want to see civil unrest it's Tories like Nadine you need in power.

Issues such as NHS reform and Education simply don’t resonate with families totally absorbed with making ends meet on a day to day basis.

Really, Nadine, you don't understand anything do you? Nothing. Not a thing. People not only want reliable and adequate services. They also want to hope that public sector and public services jobs WILL NOT BE SHED AT SUCH A TIME when the variable part of the economy, based on profit and to a large extent on discretionary spending, is a bit stuck. Not least because of doom mongering.

And we continue to hope that as health and training needs INCREASE there will be no DECREASE in provision as Nadine and Nu Tough Cam appear to be suggesting.

When you lose your job, can’t pay the mortgage and your main worry is do you have enough money to buy food to feed your children before the next benefit payment, I would imagine that political nuances fly straight over your head. All you would be interested in is putting someone in power who can deliver change and throw the economy a life raft.

Of course this is coming from a woman "born in a council house" (not), who knows all about living on the breadline (again, not), and for whom "political nuance" is bread and butter (distinctly not).

As the black cash in hand market exploited by the poorest is also hit by recession, my prediction is that 2009 will be a bleak year with no relief in sight for 2010.

What twaddle Nadine. Black cash? Black cash in hand? Black market? What utter twaddle. It's "black economy" - if you must - and that derogatory idea, of unaccounted for cash in hand, is hardly the exclusive preserve of the poorest. The richest specialise in it.

But what pessimistic twaddle this official Tory line through the prism of dim Nads really is.

Mandelson’s job over the next few months may well be to advise the PM to go sooner rather than later. The advice of MPs will be to wait as they cling onto their seats. Whether or not the election will take place in 2009 is anyone’s call.

Not thankfully Nadine's, or dangerous Dave's. Just now Gordon is not interested in fighting an election. There is a downturn to see off first. But at some point needs must.

There'll never be a great time for the next general election given the backdrop. So when an election comes it will have to be a quickie.

I have favoured June 2009 since the Blair-Brown succession. It is the four-year anniversary. It would help see off the BNP. The need for MORE not LESS mediation of Tory Boy capitalism - as their right reverends pointed out - will remain as clear as can be.

And yes, whenever the election may be Nadine it WILL be about "damage limitation". Limiting, indeed preventing the damage that would almost certainly be caused if Nadine's people were calling the shots.

EXCLUSIVE: Paul and Nadine Dorries Home Repossessed?

Currently Ms Nadine Bargery-Dorries Mum-P's Part 1 Register of Members Interests says only "nil". There are ten main sections.

In no particular order. No property that is not used as main or second home. No significant shareholdings. No paid work outside parliament. No remunerated directorships. No overseas visits. No gifts. No donations. No nothing. And nothing the Mum-P wishes to share that she does not have to. Which would belong in Section 11.

From her election in June 2005 until 10 June 2009 her register of members interests has included just two "spare" properties in each registration. Guidance requires that changes notified speedily. The registered properties against Ms Nadine Bargery-Dorries Mum-P's name for these four years have been:

* House in Gloucestershire, from which rental income is received.

* Holiday home in South Africa.

We may come back to the UK leg of the property empire in another post. As any fool who follows these things knows that there were three properties on Chipping Campden High Street. Which would be two spares, two houses to register. But that these were apparently sold on in 2006 and 2007. It was in the papers and it's all down at the Land Registry.

But this post is not about that. It is about the Dorries Holiday Home in South Africa. This was apparently subject of a High Court, Port Elizabeth, Eastern Cape, South Africa ruling on 6 March 2007, with a Warrant of Execution on 9 March 2007, and a Sale in Execution due to take place at 10:30am on 13 July 2007. The details are on the notice below.




This is no fun. I've been through something not dissimilar myself around a commercial property owned by an Arts Charity. We managed to sell the property ourselves at the eleventh hour. Perhaps Paul and Nadine refinanced this one?

However, in response to my earlier mentions of the repossession Nadine Dorries told me in writing, and I quote:

"As for the houses (sic) in SA, they weren’t mine, they were sold for a profit, as far as I know - but none of it came to me."

In responses to this I explained about the court ruling - in which she was after all named as a defendant - and the scheduled sale in execution.

Although I have given Nadine more than 72 hours to comment further or clarify she has chosen not to do so. And sadly she has not provided me with the means of contacting Paul David Dorries that I also requested. I'll probably have to use the blog.

If this is the same Holiday Home in South Africa as the one in the RMI, and if it was sold in this way, and if the Gloucestershire homes were sold as described in the newspapers would seem that it took towards two years rather than the expected four weeks to update the registrar.

Labour's Fightback: Six Predictions for Six Years

Labour's Fightback is back after the sort of hiatus we used to despair at from "Reclaim Labour". Incidentally of the so-called parliamentary "Left" Jon Cruddas and John McDonnell have also been very quiet. While Michael Meacher has maintained his tempo. (Links in last post).

Owen sees his glass half empty or worse with Brown, and he makes six predictions. Here they are, with my view in italics:

Firstly, there will be a general election in the not-too-distant future.
First week in June 2009

Secondly, Labour will win the election with a similar majority as today.
Probably a bigger majority. Perhaps 90 or so.

Thirdly, David Cameron will resign as Tory leader and leave Parliament.
Quite possible I suppose. If I'm right about the majority. If Owen is right, perhaps not. He was supposed to be on a two-stop strategy after all.

Fourthly, David Davis will be his only viable replacement.
Hague will still be there and might be a more attractive option. Davis is a bit like Labour picking ... oh, I don't know who ... go on then, John McDonnell. Davis would be a change in the direction of travel, not necessarily towards electability.

Fifthly, there will not be another Labour leadership contest for at least six years. Such a contest will be bittersweet for the left: there won't be an obvious successor in whom the trade union bureaucracy and softer left have illusions in (like Brown) - but there will be fewer left MPs and the soft left will be more likely to run their own candidate (probably Cruddas - who has gone very quiet since the deputy leadership contest).
Ten years. Perhaps twelve or thirteen. There is a prospect here of something a bit Swedish occuring in the UK. Ten to thirteen years is a long time in politics. Even six years is. Some nurturing and pragmatism from the left could widen this caucus.

Oh - and sixthly - Michael Meacher's leadership ambitions will continue unabated. You think I'm joking. Seriously, I'm not.
At six years, perhaps. Any more than that, highly unlikely. But he is blogging like a good 'un unlike "bloggers' hero" Jon Cruddas.

Torygraph: "Cameron Fights to Stave Off Election"

All looking like bluff, double bluff, counter bluff and uber bluff. Has poker face Dave pulled off a coup with his feel good quackery? Or have the Labour machine been toying with him all along? Jangling his fragged nerves, wasting his puffed out war chest, keeping Gordon's own powder bone dry?

I've made no secret of preferring a June 2009 poll myself. Gordon is doing remarkably well at dealing with events. Cameron isn't going to convince anyone his party has changed by talking about "new politics" when his party faithful still cheer the same old same old "old politics"?

Balls himself pointed this out immediately afterward. Well crafted, yes. New Politics, absolutely not. Iain Dale's man of steely coilons has a bad case of false memory syndrome and not to mention that same old deja vu, again.

He clearly got his applause for retro old Tory policies - the very opposite of his attempted narrative - with the new cuddly stuff finding indifference, bemusement or even dissent from the greying hordes.

It doesn't matter when it is really. Labour will win. And yes Britain will win. My point of view is that we might as well sort out the European Parliament or reclaim half the nation's Town Halls while we're about it.

LabourHome: Open Thread on General Election Timing

LabourHome have started an Open Thread on General Election Timing.

My punt is for June 2009. The first weekend. As I have been saying from the get go. 100 weeks as PM then annihilate both the Tories and the Liberals. Hold if not gain in EU even on reduced seatage. Swamp the BNP with a general election. Kick off a 50-year dynasty of post-Blair social democracy or, we can dream, eventually democratic socialism.

General Election Timing: Still Betting 100 Weeks

Julian Glover, the Guardian's chief leader writer, has come out to play to Comment is Free after a six month hiatus. The allure of a snap election is laced with cowardice he claims, subtitling A prime minister who had faith in his own character would resist the temptations of going to the country early. So that's that then.

LOL reckon that Dizzy is now right to play it cool when he was so recently just a fool to fan the flames of rabid speculation.

They were all at it of course. Even though a "No 10 source" has told The Times: "There is no election announcement next week, this is just a diversionary tactic in the face of the Tory meltdown".

Dizzy's later post pointed to one of the snares and traps Gordon Brown may well be laying for the Tories viz. annual spending limits for which only Brown himself can or may know the window.

First weekend in June 2009 is still my best guess. I have been plugging that view pretty much since Brown took the helm.

"Wasting" a general election without boosting a local government or euro election would surely not be prudent. It's not really about bottle. Of course it is all about winning as "Idiot!" Julian's first commenter suggests. But in particular it is about winning well.

Those Euro elections may provide the best prospects of all. An upstanding 100 weeks from succession to own mandate. At least a couple more chances to wind Cameron up to spend his money.

Gordon Brown gets two elections for the price of one. Labour benefit royally from greater turnout in a side contest. Town Hall control recovered. Or best of a bad job with reducing numbers of Euro seats.

Sun Says: Right Old Load of Bullocks from Cameron

Under the title "When It's Right to Speak Out" Iain Dale praises the Tory suicide bomber* Dave-eeeed Cameron thusly:

Dale: Cameron then went on to criticise Gordon Brown for comparing himself to Margaret Thatcher, coming up with a couple of rather good lines...
Cameron to SunWhat a cheek! If we had listened to Gordon Brown no one would have been able to buy their own council house, unions would run the country and we'd probably be speaking Russian. He is a conviction politician - convicted of robbing people's pensions, stealth taxed and failing to reform the NHS.

Cam's characterisation of Brown is of course wildly innaccurate (though some on the Labour left would add: "More's the pity").

SUN-CAM MYTH 1: Council house sales would be stopped - Blair/Brown AFAIK seriously regretted missing that one. The tap was not turned off by Brown was it? Did Brown EVER try to stop Right to Buy? (as some say: more's the pity) This despite the contempt from the cheating Tory Lady Porterhouse. Or whatever her thieving name was.

The thing that needed to go with it but never did under the Tories and still hasn't under NL is the recycling of receipts to build new homes - properly protected e.g. in co-ops, from right to buy and also resale or remortgaging.

SUN-CAM MYTH 2: Unions would run the country - Neither Blair not Brown is much of a Trade Unionist. And does Cam or the Sun really think Unions have a sniff of running the country? (as some say: more's the pity) Do the Sun or the Tories think people will believe that given the New Labour history?

SUN-CAM MYTH 3: We'd all be speaking Russian - Speaking say Russian would be no bad thing, or French or German or Mandarin or Gaelic. Every word is an idea. And each has different shades in each language. I do speak Russian myself. Not well. A bare pass at O. But I am resisting the speaking of Imperialist American.

What I learnt while learning the language - from a Mr Perfect with a rather blatant false leg, Oxfam dressing before it was fabulous, and turn ups like Kim Philby (just like Mr Jones who taught us "World Studies") - was not just an A to Chetori rote thing. It was about culture, ideas, history and understanding. Speaking Russian after being conquered? Stupid. (as no-one says: more's the pity)

Don't know which languages Cam speaks but here he blunders on in pure Yahboo. This "convicted" riff is bunkum. Sun readers are not in the slightest bit thick, as Eton Cam may think.

"I do not buy this", they say with the confidence of true Europeans. "We do not buy this". "He, she and/or it does not buy this".

Brown is head and shoulders over Cam on conviction and in my eyes he has been playing all this like a real master. He is helping the Tory Party destroy the Tory Party.

'Til not one stone stands on another. We had already done this in Manchester say 15 years ago. In fact this is not great for us. The pestilent Lib Dems have become a clear second party in many wards as Tories just roll over and die.

Tory voters are holding their nose and voting for a party that they wrongly think is TO THE LEFT of Labour. For that reason at least I am urging Cam on with every breath and every sinew. Can he re-engage George and Albert and even Janet and John?No, he just isn't cutting it.

Cameron SHOULD have kept silent as Tim Montgomery tapped on Conservative Home.

Polls were improving. Now they will certainly re-droop.

The next General Election will be in June 2009.

Put tha' cash away Dave-eeed.

Guido Fawkes: Claims Cam Has Supped Sold Soul Food

Guido has a story from "an impeccable source" that he nonetheless caveats as unconfirmed. He'll be hurting his source's feelings at this rate. Anyways, pinch of salt must be applied to Dave's slap up meal chez Roland Rudd, Public Relations man for world capitalism, and Dave's Notting Hill neighbour.

Guido seems to think that being caught being fed and watered by such a fellow flim flam creature is a schoolboy error. With every morsel and every sip a new clause in a Faustian Pact. It seems that UK plc under Cam would owe a feeding frenzy to mammon. Doesn't sound good. Best avoided I'd say.

ROLAND RUDD'S FINSBURY: Represents 27% of the FTSE Top 100. Yes, 27 corporates. Plus Oleg Deripaska.

UPDATE Friday 21:04: Guido previously claimed this compromising fine dining was in June 2009. He has subsequently added this:

Cameron’s office have got in touch to say it was more like a year ago rather than a month ago that he last dined with Roland Rudd.

But I don't know when as it is a stealth update with no time stamp and no sign in any RSS feed.

General Election Date: Still Think It's June 2009

Lots of murmuring to the contrary. But here's why.

And Another Thing: Tom Harris Teases Tories on Polls

And another thing. Tom Harris MP is busy teasing Tories about their piffling and declining YouGov poll lead. 10%, down 1% since last month. Despite catastrophic world background. The Tories are not cutting through or convincing anyone they could be a potential crisis government.

They are rattling off a mantra of vacuous feel good quackery instead. And there's every chance of a poor performance in the Euros with the double whammy of external and internal factors undermining performance:

Externally they have the far right threat galvanising progressive voters to get out and vote Green, Red or Yellow. While UKIP are likely to rebound from nowhere to somewhere on their single issue. Tories are soft on Europe after all. Particularly with Ken Clarke back at the helm of the good ship Tory financial policy. Let's face it Goo may think he's a man ... but he's only a boy.

[close your eyes aside]Couple of thought experiments spring to mind. First off just try to imagine Ken Clarke talking over a jazz, (nice!!) remix of the tune. Can you do that? If I had the time and the skills I'd make the video right now! With GOO and Cam of course believing they are the over-confident, under-performing "boy" of the lyric. they're so vain! Being told to take the high road. And shut the door behind him. And don't come back.[/aside]

Internally the combination of sleaze buckets like the coastal town clowns Dover and Chichester (and don't forget Conwy) presumably all moving over, under their dark clouds of money-grubbing corruption, plus dis-satisfaction at women (and Lib Dem defective Sajjad Karim) bumping "too far" up their lists as a result.

Bad results in the Euros plus continued lack of credibility should get us back to "all to play for" in time for the General Election run in. There is even still a faint possibility of Gordon calling a snap "confidence" election alongside Euros in June 2009.

If UKIP and the BNP are ready with parliamentary candidates; And with Tory sleaze stories at Euro level polluting the brand at national level; And with a financial industry crisis Cameron isn't trusted to fix still waxing rather than waning; A very bold move indeed for Brown's Labour.

Conservativehome.com: More Juvenile Tosh

Connservative Home have called the whole thing off. This is apparently because Gordon's pre-recording an interview for the Politics Show. Though I've bet my house on June 2009 taking these shambolic and juvenile Tories apart over the next few weeks would be a great pleasure. Or perhaps not ...

UPDATE: Now everyone's saying the same. NOTW ICM poll in marginals. Good. Media and tory boys out of control. Settle down everybody.

Wearing Tories Clothes (NOT): Stay Left Shep Stay Left

Over at the same bloody brilliant Akehurst post the man's mortal enemies in sectarianaria are trotting in to the crease and hoping to shatter Luke's middle stump with their deadly late swing.

But whereas even the dopiest economists in the Tory blogosphere cottoned on to this - sadly for them - NOT being the Great Clothes Robbery, some on the left have yet to catch on.

With a little Economics and a smattering of Mathematics in my education it took me about ten minutes to figure that Darling had not changed the world or stolen Gideon Osborne's albeit dapper-toff-tailored clothes.

Oh! Delete-name-of-comrade, Darling HAS NOT repeat HAS NOT appropriated Tory policy on IHT.

He hasn't in fact changed much at all. Except the perception in the country (among as many as 75% of voters allegedly) that they were going to be killed twice. By death itself. And then by death duties.

Before Darling's speech: Couple with good tax planning £600,000 equity before IHT. Rising to £700,000 under existing plans.

After Darling's speech: Couple without the expense or culture of tax planning £600,000 equity before IHT. Still rising to £700,000 under existing plans.

Before Darling's speech: Widows and widowers and civil partnership survivors would not benefit as above from the allowance.

After Darling's speech: Widows and widowers and civil partnership survivors do in fact benefit from the full allowance.

IHT will now be at more or less the same levels - affecting just 3-4% of estates - as in 1997. Being supposedly indexed that is what is supposed to happen.

Darling has done very little to change anything. It has however become apparent that Gid the Fib Osborne and Memory Man Cam intended for estates with equity of TWO MILLION not just ONE MILLION to escape IHT.

Providing some useful blue water in the 20-month build up to the June 2009 election that one or two bloggers have predicted all along.

Now, socialists can I think mount an argument for more progressive IHT. Not sure it will ever be listened to or that it is electorally prudent. But what Darling and Brown have in fact done is not take the Tory Clothes, on this one at least, but instead taken the Tory Dog Whistle and changed it from "Go Right Shep, Go Right" to "Relax Shep, Stay Left".

If polling shows that instead of 75% of the electorate only say 10-20% now misconstrue the scope of this particularly misunderstood tax that will have been a great day's work for the Chancellor.

General Election Speculation: House of Love on June 2009

Back with Lib Dem Voice. They think Gordon will call the General Election tomorrow. It is still possible to win 80 pence per pound wagered on the Betting Exchanges on a General Election NOT taking place this year. This would be very generous indeed in the face of any genuine information on timing. It has come in from a little over 90 pence in 24 hours.

Comments at the normally astute Political Betting are also running either way, possibly on balance rather against a poll this year. But there are nearly 300 comments already and I've not been scientific in saying that.

MORE ON OSBORNE AND NON DOM: He's included visiting NHS workers e.g. nurses as well as fruit and cockle pickers in his calculation of the numbers of non doms. All ever so likely to put their hands up and say "right, the games up, here's my £25,000".

Run On Bookies: Betfair Return Down to 57 Pence/Pound

Still possible to get 57 pence for every pound wagered on there NOT being a General Election this year. Looks like free money if you're as convinced as I am of a June 2009 poll.

Giving Out Secret Sources: Dale as Bad as Fawkes?

Adam Boulton has hated Gordon Brown since G's tailor completely stitched up his A's avatar's shirt collar.

First we had Guido Fawkes blabbing his sources live on Newsnight. Now Iain Dale is at it too.

Don't you think Sky TV Political Editor Adam Boulton thought that that conversation would remain off the record Iain?

And if Brown is second rate - as Boulton opined to you in a private moment - where does that put Gid the Fib and Dave the Memory Man?

Now, there's shoddy for you.

Didn't think Brown would call an autumn election even when all the preparations were being leaked. I have always insisted that June 2009 is the time to go with May 2008 unsatisfactory but better than Autumn 2007.

I've lost count of how many times I've given that firm view here and in comments elsewhere. Meanwhile incidentally Dale has been persistently dead wrong.

I even wondered whether this was a sting operation to drive out some thin Tory policy and waste some Tory money too. But actually Gordon is too serious for that.

The story here though is that Tories have mounted a gargantuan effort to stop an election in which Gordon could have mortally wounded the blue cause.

Somehow or other Gid the Fib has been believed and Dave the burlesque Memory Man has impressed with 67 minutes of feelgood quackery.


Perhaps Iain Dale has checked with Adam Boulton before doing this but if not I suggest he goes and makes his peace right away.

Otherwise this delightful avatar provided by Norfolk Tories, after Iain turned a 500 vote marginal into a Lib Dem 5-figure landslide, will be doing the rounds of both constituency and media circles.

Mr Boulton is going to be struggling with doing his job professionally if his half arsed hotel bar rants get in the public domain like this.

Ealing Southall: Miscellaneous Odds and Sods

Lib Dem Voice, being Lib Dems, are familiar with dirty campaign tactics, innuendo and hoaxes. Now they are guilty of psychological projection in accusing Tom Watson of trying to smear them, or being wrong.

Not guilty on both counts. Tom reports police being called to some party political argy-bargey involving unnamed oppositionists. Absolutely true. According to the LDV account Tories (one party) were scrapping with Supporters (not Labour, so at least two parties) and Lib Dem activists were involved only by arriving at the scene as this kicked off (so two or three parties in all).

There are nominally ELEVEN strands of Opposition in Ealing Southall, even discounting two folded independents there are NINE. Methinks these Lib Dems protest too much in this case. Why do they try to smear Tom by claiming he meant the Lib Dems rather than permutations of the other eight? Guilty feet, no rhythm etc etc.

This has also been a day of speculation on whether the outing of Tony Lit even further as an opportunist could come back to bite Labour by driving votes to the Lib Dems. It seems to me that, having had the info for four weeks Labour have played this beautifully.

The calculation for "why now?": anti-Labour element of PVs on balance may have gone to Lit who is of course a Sikh and a smoothy. However if Lit's war position is known - there's quite a chance he was all for it, I don't know - the Libs will also get a fair run in PVs. But perhaps the Tories will be ahead of the two as the bookies have had them.

Then all this beautifully timed Lit-bashing puts the 2nd and 3rd back together at say 25% and leaves Labour safe at say 40%. Greens and Respect a few points down, sharing 10% or so with the Independents. Great timing IMO from Watson.

Political Betting also seem worried about this but thinking Lit could benefit by showing he has influence across several parties.

It boosts Lit's profile certainly. As an opportunistic rogue though. Is that the image the Tories want to press home? What with the single issue hothead Gurcharan Singh and the Hounslow "defectors" who crossed to the Tories via a community party standing for "Total Democracy" and founded by a former NF organiser and ABH jailbird it is surely the Tories looking all wrong here?

Every now and then some wag will reel out the joke about the age old cliff top dilemma:

There is a Tory opponent and a Lib Dem opponent standing on the proverbial cliff top.

Which do you push off first?

Chorus: The Tory!

Why?

Business before pleasure!

Make no mistake Tom Watson's eyes are set on Dave-id Cameron himself with this latest development.

The polls are running for Labour. All this defection trouble is showing up Cameron more and more by the minute. And having some by-election smarts TW has waited until the voting is almost over! There are a high proportion of votes in most constituencies now that are executed by post. They aren't usually wait-until-the-last-minute types. Most will already be in the box.

The timing of this intervention will turn off some tribal Tories for the walk up vote. But many of them, in a three-way fight, still have enough self respect to back their hearts or not vote at all. They won't back the Lib Dem.

Nearby Nigel may get some swings at this stage but I do think this will be fairly limited. The whole thing must be looking a bit confused all round. Which favours the incumbent. Sharma is the closest to Piabra in style and approach. A safe bet with 25 years of delivery in the Borough.

He will win with a sound majority. At the next General Election - particularly if it is June 2009 - he may even stand aside having had his short but sweet ten minutes.

Then we will have an All Women Shortlist and more fun and games.

Tapestry has been commenting left, right and centre on this story I think. But the home blog doesn't cover it. Instead it is about shooting down the Europhiles - before it's too late. Deselecting them. Driving them away. Managing to combine a "nothing against gays" line, with the idea that "gay" names like Quentin (and John and Ken?) can help sniff 'em out ... Cuddly Nu Tories. Don't you just love them?