Thursday, August 02, 2007

Europe: North West to Lose Another MEP?

The Electoral Commission has published its recommendations (pdf download) on how to further reduce our MEPs from 78 to 72. There were 87 originally. And no dratted PR.

The Commission used the exciting Sainte-Laguë method to wild enthusiasm from psephologists and statisticians.

Major distortion is from the over-representation of Northern Ireland, forced by minimum three MEPs per region. But if one were handed back it would go to the Brummies rather than the NW. This method makes us the second most hard done by region. In other words if there were 74 rather than 72 seats we would have had one of them.

Now you don't have to look. But table A5 gives a little taste.

Hat tip: LDV


Andrea said...

With 2004 results LD would have not won their second seat with a seat reduction in NW:

Lab 576,388
2) Con 509,446
3) LD 335,063
4) Lab 288,194
5) UKIP 257,158
6) Con 254,723
7) Lab 192,129
8) COn 169,815.3
9) LD 167,531

It was close with the Tory's 3th seat last time...but I suppose it's difficult for the tories polling worse than their bad 2004 result, isn't it?

The LD ranking between the 2 sitting MPs will be interesting next time

Do you know when Labour will select and rank their candidates? and what procedures will be used?

Chris Paul said...

Tory fortunes may depend on what GB does with EU treaty and what Cameron does and also what state UKIP are in.

Three seats wasn't great for Labour. I cannot recall whether Labour would have won the 10th, but I do remember that Nick Griffin was about 30,000 away from a seat.

Although Chris Davies has gone very very quiet indeed this last year or so - post-zion-gate - and Sajjad Karim has been pushed forwards again and again and again I'd still bet on them going 1 Davies 2 Karim.

Doubled turnout in the event of there being a GE on the same day might win Lab a 4th, smother UKIP and BNP and even trouble that LD second seat. But what the LDs did last time was an utterly communalist campaign. Vote Brown Vote Asian Vote Muslim etc which was horrible to see.

Davies was frankly immune to criticism on the point. He simply said it was true that Sajj was the only Asian etc candidate who had a chance.

Presumably the Tories will have to put up a woman if Len Dover or any of the other retire under their new rules?

I'm not sure what the intentions of our three are. Arlene certainly going again and will be ranked 1 again. One of the boys (Simpson) might step down I suppose. Rosie Cooper is an MP now of course.

But Teresa Griffin will be there again. Possibly Dr Rupa Huq who was 7 on the list last time. Perhaps 5 is she has not got a winnable Westminster seat. But of 8 rank 5 is still useless and as a London/SE resident she could be better deployed down there.

But there should could be - assuming one retirement - an electable slot for a man at 4. I can see one possible candidate there but won't blog it just now as it is a big guess and don't want to help the opposition.

I wasn't at all happy with the LP ranking process last time. Huge disparities in candidates' budgets. Huge differences in access to lists and mailings. Poor publicity and poor turnout for hustings. I think I went to three of them.

GE and EE same day or weekend? First weekend in June 2009?

Andrea said...

Interesting points.

-if GE and Euro ELections are held on the same day, I would expect to favour Lab as the higher turnout should help Lab

- "resumably the Tories will have to put up a woman if Len Dover or any of the other retire under their new rules?"

David Sumberg is officially retiring..and yes, if I've understood their rules correctly they should have a woman after the incumbents re-standing in this case

- " I cannot recall whether Labour would have won the 10th, but I do remember that Nick Griffin was about 30,000 away from a seat"

yes, with a 10th seat Lab would got it with a 144xxxq quota vs 134xxx for BNP

- Arlene McCarthy wasn't ranked 1 last time. Titley was 1, McCarthy 2, Wynn 3 and Simpson 4.

- Was there a rule to "protect" women saying that at least 1 woman should be in top 2 in each region? I'm not sure if I recall it correctly

spotthewasteofspace said...

So, Andrea then? Does she have a thing for you? She finds your stats interesting, Chris. You might be in there.

But no other comments, I notice.

Chris Paul said...

Goodness me muppet. Is it just my blog you're obsessing over? My very own (albeit rather illiterate and dumb-ass) sock muppet?

Andrea said...