Sunday, October 14, 2007

Tory Marginals Poll: Exceptionally Good for Labour, But ...


A new poll in the Tories top 119112 marginals must be highly caveated as it is by Anthony Wells at the link, but it shows Gordon Brown's Labour holding on in every last one. The polling period was long and straddled the conference season.

5 comments:

Fred said...

Doubt It! One of Gordons Browns big problems is he has upset the labour voting element of small businesses who are now subject to the new less favourable capital gains tax. Adverse comment is going around like wildfire. Speculators, share gamblers and second home owners are winners, but small enterprise has been stung again. Reckon this is a big problem as an army of self employed desert the Labour cause.

Iain Lindley said...

I assume after the "but..." goes "a month out of date". A lot has happened since...

Chris Paul said...

Mmmm. I said what I wanted to say.

Fred - it's more complex than that. The small businesses were getting a c 75% break on capital gains. Now it's more like a 55% break compared to what went before.

But the others are all getting it too. Labourers in vineyards kinda thing.

Iain - "month out of date" is not quite right but it did straddle various events. A poll process that long will always be challenged when political times are volatile. The Tory yahboo has been unedifying.

Fred said...

Chris. The voter does not see complex things. In this case it is just the weight of tax. Small Businesses have been hit with a 22% Corporation tax in stealth stages, Weighty Tax Driven Investigations incentivised by juicy personal financial commissions to the Tax Inspector, and now a CGT hike.
The real reason Gordy is suffering in the Polls is the Price of Bread--- more generally Food inflation across the board is hypering to about + 15%. B Bread a rises today for the third tine this year by 6p.
Inflation and the cost of living is the nightmare of Brown.

Chris Paul said...

That's fascinating Fred, but not compelling.