Saturday, April 12, 2008

Political Betting: Gordon Brown, London Mayoralty


Political Betting carries a discussion on Gordon Brown's survival chances based on some trite twaddle from Brown-hater Matthew Parris. More interesting perhaps is a kerfuffle in the betting market over a possible new ipsos-MORI poll in the Observer tomorrow.

Political betting have lauded YouGov as the pollsters to watch. I'm not aware of the methodology ipsos-MORI will have used for this poll vs the most recent Unison-sponsored one. Or even whether it is a distinct poll rather than part of one of their standard Omnibus or Public Affairs Monitor surveys. We may find out tomorrow. Mike Smithson's flutter report indicates it may favour Johnson, though he has been getting out of Johnson positions himself (see YouGov link).

UPDATE: In fact the actual ipsos MORI poll is not bad at all for Ken.

6 comments:

JC said...

Just as I was reading this blog - two voting cards were popped through the letter box. Gordon Browns survival may hang in the balance of where I put my cross.

Anonymous said...

Pity you don't refer to Polly Toynbee's demolition job on Gordy in The Guardian.

Easy to slag off Parris. Not so easy,indeed impossible, to shrug off Toynbee.

Gordy is dead meat. He's dragging you lot with him as predictably as my house loses 40% of the value it never really had 'cos of Gordy's buffoon financial management.

Bring on the unions. Just in time to make sure you lot get comprehensively screwed at the poll.

Chris Paul said...

Toynbee is all over the place anon. I've said so before. Parris is just an extraordinarily partisan commentator in this regard. He LIKES Blair. He DISLIKES Brown with a vengeance.

Comments on house value are too frivolous for further comment. This kind of over-confident hubris is what did for Kinnockio.

Chris Paul said...

BTW ... Clearly JC it has to be Ken ...

Jon Worth said...

Rawnsley is at it too in today's Observer. While the media hubub about this is a nuisance Brown needs to be determined and strategic to get rid of the criticisms.

Chris Paul said...

Yes, think you're right Jon. It's a blip. Also notice elsewhere in the paper that Johnson is claiming to be "more experienced than Thatcher, Blair and Brown when they came to power". What is the bozmeister on? Shouldn't it be illegal? It is? Ahhh.