Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Crewe and Nantwich: Dunwoody Leads ET by 5%


There is one good poll at least for Tamsin Dunwoody HERE. And it's open until Thursday. And it has the Tory "Con men" and Liberals in a two horse race for THIRD! Also lots of good, local and even-handed flavour. The By-Elections blog is also ticking over nicely. Not so sure about the strand at Democracy Forum.

15 comments:

ron said...

Im a security at the Tescos at Crewe and ive have a lot of time on my hands. You always give me a larf. You are such a wanker and I enjoy the way yiou are slagged off.

im not goin to vote for that labout womwan she makes my flech creap . Why are youp saying shg's goin to win/

No way

boris is london mayor said...

Bollocks Chris

We will soon see on Thursday who wins and it will be the Conservatives like it was in London for Boris

Chris Paul said...

Good to see Tesco giving security staff access to internet at work.

Letters From A Tory said...

Sorry Chris but the newspaper poll this morning doesn't make for such pleasant reading if you support Labour - the Conservatives are 13% ahead (allegedly).

susan said...

There is loyalty..... and there is denial

Mistoffelees said...

A poll with a self-selecting sample is statistically worthless by definition.

I remember in the run-up to the 1997 election, Teletext would regularly conduct polls that put the Tories on something like 70% - because the only people who actually bothered to vote were deranged pensioners with lots of time on their hands and who were rich enough not to be fazed by the cost of voting. In other words, probable Tories.

By contrast, all the Crewe and Nantwich polls conducted by professionals with statistical qualifications and reputations to protect put the Tories miles ahead. At this stage, I'll be gobsmacked if they don't win on Thursday.

Chris Paul said...

What do you think I'm denying Susan? I've not called the election. But if I did I'd repeat my observation that we really should be losing by-elections badly at this stage in a third term, particularly given the polls.

Any sort of win would be tremendous news. I think the 123 in this one could be remarkably close, that the right wing independents (UKIP, ED, ex-Tory, Fuel protest) could do surprisingly well.

Whatever. I've not called it. And I'm not in denial.

By-election polls are not "all that" generally whoever conducts them. And believe you me the average field worker, even for MORI and ICM, has less statistical quals Mistoffelees than Iain Dale.

Meanwhile the crap on a News 24 loop from Dorries on College Green is really annoying me ...

Chris Paul said...

PS Obviously the Crewe.tv poll is just for fun.

Chris Paul said...

It has UKIP second for goodness sake ...!

Mistoffelees said...

By-election polls are not "all that" generally whoever conducts them. And believe you me the average field worker, even for MORI and ICM, has less statistical quals Mistoffelees than Iain Dale.

All right then - I bet you £500 that the Tories win on Thursday.

Deal?

boris is london mayor said...

And Chris goes quiet

Anonymous said...

You should read the questions asked in the recent YouGov poll. Push-polling anybody?

If Labour lose it'll be because of the relentless biased narrative which the media have adopted toward this by-election from the start.

Mistoffelees said...

If Labour lose it'll be because of the relentless biased narrative which the media have adopted toward this by-election from the start.

...and nothing whatsoever to do with the crass and counterproductive Labour campaign on the ground, which Chris still seems to be trying to perpetuate if his latest post is any guide.

I'm beginning to think that Labour doesn't actually want to win this by-election, and that a loss might be strategically useful in hastening Gordon Brown's departure. Who's going to replace him, though, God knows.

Worryingly, the signs are that Blair and Brown may end up as destructive to the Labour Party as Margaret Thatcher was to the Tories - ditching previously fundamental principles to deliver three election victories, but then rendering the party unelectable for a generation or more.

Instead of quibbling about Burke's Peerage, you need to be scouring the Tory press and thinking seriously about why they're making the intellectual running. Because despite the weakness of many of the proposals, that's what they're doing - and until you recognise this and take appropriate action, you're heading for a thumping defeat both in Crewe (a foregone conclusion now) and the general election.

Chris Paul said...

My latest post - exposing Guido's careless attempt at perpetuation of the toff narrative - continues my disdain for that narrative whoever is using it. And always amusing to find GuF out of course.

I don't think Tories are making any "intellectual running". It is marketing and impression management aka spin. Completely different.

Mistoffelees said...

I don't think Tories are making any "intellectual running". It is marketing and impression management aka spin. Completely different.

But something Labour used to be supremely good at, so what went wrong?

And if the Tories aren't making the intellectual running, then why have Gordon Brown and Alastair Darling nicked so many policies off them? If it's all just smoke and mirrors, what does that say about their judgement?