Friday, May 02, 2008

Jaws of Count Predictions: Pretty Good Performance

So, how did the old CP-LOL predictions fare?

Cheetham : Always more exciting when former Deputy Leader Martin Pagel is up. Sham Raja (LD) got hammered last time and Kay Phillips (Respect Renewal) should keep him in his place. Prediction: Comfortable (300-vote) hold for Labour.

Correct in everything but the quantum for Martin's victory. Kay won 500 votes again, outshining the former Respect comrades of the SWP. Huge numbers our way. Martin's last solo defence was much hairier. With a margin in two figures. And a filthy Lib Dem campaign. Well done to Afzal and Naeem and Martin on a stunning victory.

Chorlton : Promises to be quite a contest. High turn out. Humungous struggle between well established Cllr Sheila Newman and John Leech's youngster Lianne Williams who has piled a small rain forest of paper through the doors of the ward. Very green I'm sure. Prediction: 150 majority to Labour.
Correct. Within the margin of a recount this one! Actual majority was 159259. Leech virtually wept. Hurrah.

Chorlton Park : Expect a bit of a slump in LD majority thanks to Leech's final retirement from the double job schtick in favour of Bernie "Mad Dog" Ryan. Norman "Shameless" Lewis' girl. It'll still be a weigh in. But there were unprecedented queues at the polling station for the Chorlton part of the ward.

Correct. Majority down to three figures! Chorlton Park have lost a councillor who as an MP makes an adequate councillor and are now "represented" by three muppets.

City Centre : Too close to call. If Rob Adlard (Tory) fails here again he'll be out on his ear. Marc Rambo (LD) could take a fall. And Anthony McCaul certainly deserves credit for a great campaign. Green candidate is brand new with no name recognition and may lose votes to Labour. Prediction: Margin of 75 either way LD-Lab. Tories a sad, well beaten third. Increased turnout, particularly from the 4,000 students who have barely broken 1% in the past.
Correct. Apart from the hopes of an uplift in student participation. Not a lot of people realise that student halls bulk as 40% or so of the ward's population and that the parlous state of the buy-to-let market also finds them in droves in key worker and commercial flats. Adlard must be replaced. Probably by a clubbable young woman. As in seals clubbable.

Gorton North and South : Potential Labour gains, perhaps not this time, we'll see.

Correct: There is potential here. But the next North contest barring by-elections will be a defence. South is well within striking distance thanks to sterling work by Julie Reid and the team. Lazy Glover gets another four year stretch at our expense.

Hulme : Prediction: Labour gain from Green. Good margin (350 votes). After Vanessa Hall cashed in her right-to-buy Council Flat, waved bye bye to her Council Allowance/Maternity Pay, and moved to greener fields.
The Greens went a bit dirty and threw their leaflet phobia to the four winds in the last few days. Possibly clawing across the 100-150 needed to make my prediction hold. Lib Dems scarcely tried. In the old fashioned way for this seat. They might well have a real run at the seat again in 2010. As they did in 2006. Greens conceded on 50 down without even a bundle recount. Which was quaint. The Greens are over in this part of Manchester. What are they for anyway? Well done Cllr Emily Lomax, Nigel, Mary, Glenn, and the whole team.

Longsight : Strongly tipped for a Labour gain.

And what a Labour gain. Lib Dems played the Punjabi vs Deshi card. Labour played the "Liaquat (Lee-ack-cat) is a joke card" which easily trumped the former. Luthfur is Manchester's second Deshi councillor with a huge mandate. In three years time the Lib Dems will be cleared out of Longsight. Should have happened last year but elements in the local party refused to follow good advice on candidate selection. Candidate choice will be vital next time round. Vide Whalley Range. The Tories did remarkably well here, as they did in Cheetham.

Miles Platting and Newton Heath : Very odd this one. BNP more or less stood down their campaign in 2007 and LDs ran Labour within double figures. This time the established BNP candidate has moved elsewhere. Damien O'Connor would be back if the LDs win. He has previously been Labour, Independent, and UKIP.

Correct. Could have called the numbers on this one. BNP vote held up slightly better than expected. But the campaign to vilify the convicted fraudster and sleazebag O'Connor made him into Robin Hood. Whoops.

Northenden : Another close run thing. Prediction: Looks like a Labour hold by 100-150 to me. Thanks to the brothers gym in Benchill.
Very sadly this one went the other way. Nothing much wrong on the day. Slight shortage of muscle perhaps. In view of the Old Moat shenanigans (next) I'd certainly be tempted to have a good look at the proxy and postal votes on this one. The winning margin is less than a Lib Dem bedsit full after all. Mad Max Eakins is a biblical plague on the ward as they may discover to their cost. A certain amount of sanctimonious proxy voting for the working class by the well-to-do Guardianistas ... while the actual working class are not interested in hurting a Labour party who have saved a vital community boxing gym, brought huge recent and upcoming investment in environment, housing and an A1 community centre.

Old Moat : Enlivened by the discovery of 10 (not 12) mysterious proxy voters in a one bedroom flat. Six of them assigned to Cllr Sandiford, Cllr Isherwood, Cllr Cameron; the other four to LD activists. Very strange. The LDs have also fielded Sufiyan N Rana form the Cheetham Hill Ranas. Which is odd given their setting their face against a Muslim candidate in the case of Yasmin Zalzala.

Correct. An easy hold. Possibly drew in too much resource after some early Lib Dem feints and brags.

Rusholme : Nahella Ashraf from Left List (Reespect) tries again. Atiha Chaudry may close the gap on Lib Dem Paul B Shannon.
Correct. Nahella must surely sever links with the SWP and with some of her more hot-headed moments and join forces with Labour? The Nahella plus Atiha vote combined would have run the ambitious arse Shannon very close indeed.

Whalley Range : Fascinating three way struggle between Labour, Lib Dems and Tories each of whom hold one seat. It is the Liberal one that is up. If the Muslim vote breaks three ways as expected the underlying Labour sentiment of the ward should shine through. Prediction: Labour Gain, margin of 150 votes plus.
Worst prediction of the evening. The Tory/Hizb_ut-Tahrir tie up scared white Tories and probably also soft racists and sexists - including from weaker Labour supporters - to vote for the bumptious war dancer Cllr Dr Rev John Grant. Amina Lone was a great candidate and will have learned a huge amount from this campaign. Ready to bloody Faraz Bhatti's nose in 2011 ...


Paul said...

we won Chorlton by 259 votes

Chris Paul said...

259? I'm not going to complain about being wrong on that. If whoever has my hand written copy of the results could return them that would be appreciated .... 159 was the figure texted up to the Press Office and I'll confess I didn't check the maths when the full results came up. Which seemed to be half an hour later.

2126 to 1867. Even better!

Chris Paul said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Chris Paul said...

Thanks to all those that embarked on an immediate search for my results ... now found in my 'other' grey suit jacket. Doh!

PS Can someone please find another 100 votes for Mike Kane??

Anonymous said...

Yourself and Kathy Crotty should get more credit Chris. For keeping the city centre a real prospect for Labour and keeping the Tories out of second.

benchilltory said...

scaring soft vote for Grant- really!
the lib dems were down 11% here and your lot down 5.5%..
this 2 to 1 split in a swing to the tories is what would be expected.
turnout was up in Whalley Range and only the tories numbers went up.
despite yout tales of jiggery pokery the result here suggest a normal swing with no evidence of anything out of the ordinary