Friday, July 11, 2008

HaH HaH HaH: David Davis Back Where He Belongs?


Iain Dale posted another obituary early this morning. That of the latterday Robert Kilroy-Silk a-like David Davis MP, successor to Alan B'Stard as MP for Haltemprice. Back Where He Belongs? Don't know about that. Until he is being pompous daily on a day-time car-crash-telly Davis will not have reached his rightful place.

About a third of the people of HaH voted we're told. But 9,000 students were "away" making this even more creditable says Iain, repeating Davis' bombshell from the count.

Is there anyone out there who can provide details of where all these Haltemprice and Howden students study and where they are supposed to have gone to? Or what their typical turnout has been in this seat? Or whether they tend to vote Tory?

In Manchester analysis of marked registers in the past has shown that in elections where this sort of low turnout is achieved the identifiable students do well to cross the 1% turnout barrier. Which would mean that about 90 votes were lost in this case. Though I suspect these ones are not "away" at all.

Incidentally, comparisons with even lower turnouts in other by-elections in history - as Iain provides - are not valid any more than this point about the ravenous student vote. A greatly increased proportion of voters now use postal votes. According to Newsnight's Michael Crick around two thirds of these "turned out" in HaH, leaving the walk up vote in the high teens, or perhaps 20%.

7 comments:

Left Field said...

Hi Chris,

Long time reader first time poster.

I try to treat Iain Dale's blog like I do fatty foods. Little doses and not too often. But I had to see what spin he was putting on the HaH farce.

Reading the comments is an eye opener. The swivel-eyed Tories haven't gone away, they are alive and posting. Apparently, anyone who doesn't agree that Dave is the next messiah is a "Troll" and the BBC is involved in some great conspiracy, oh and I even saw a post from one of those who would have no doubt been sporting a "Hang Mandela" T-shirt in the 80s.

Nick Ferrari (not known for his Labour views) has just been criticising the by-election, and says that it cost £80,000. Not bad to show that 65% of the electorate are so concerned about 42 days that they don't even bother to go and vote. Given that there was no real opposition his share of the vote was pathetic. In 2005 the Tory + Lib Dem vote far exceeded 72%.

Just for the record, I am totally opposed to 42 days. But unlike David Davis also to hanging and anti-gay laws.

Chris Paul said...

Thanks Left Field. I have just asked Dale to explain when Major was given his PM mandate during his first term and also about the mythical 9,000 missing students.

But the BBC pinko myth was fed a little today where the comrades showed tape of Cameron contriving to cross the road, walking sheepishly - aware the camera was rolling - up the street, crossing again, and then doing his casual walk up to the camera. Gotcha!

Left Field said...

Here are some stats for you.

From the above link: 4.7% are full time students.

From "The Almanac of British Politics": Electorate 68,436

So based on that there are 3216 students (and I'm guessing some may not be Tories) ;-)

Lee Griffin said...

So I take it you like the 42 day legislation? Or are you just unable to resist a chance to engage in partisan spin despite the higher and more important issues around?

Left Field said...

Personally, I am totally against 42 days. But David Davis is not the person to carry the cause. He voted in favour of 28 days. So if 28 days is good, what about 29, or 30..... They are all holding people without charge. Remember how furious we all were when our sailors were held by Iran, without charge for...erm...14 days ?

David Davis talks about liberty yet backed Section 28. There's a good piece by David Aaronovitch HERE

I would have had more respect for him if he had just campaigned around the country. Perhaps, those opposed from all parties could team up together. Campaign in constituencies held by those who voted for 42 days? That would have more effect than a Tory hold in a seat they would have probably retained even with a full slate of candidates.

Anonymous said...

why is it tory numptys feel criticism of Davis is 'support for 42 days detention'? Davis is NOT a libertarian, he has tried to pull a fast one for party political reasons and been caught out.The media lost interest from day 2 of his 'campaign', and tomorrow everyone will forget about him.Just because most Labour supporters do not support 42 days that doesn't mean we are going to support Davis, he's a tory for God's sake.The Tories in power will be as draconian as they've always been

dirty european socialist said...

A brave stand for freedom.
More like a brave stand for attention seekers.