Tuesday, July 08, 2008

Tory Slump: Conservatives Down 10% in One Month

The weaselists at Conservative Home try to make a success out of losing 10% of their popularity. Also seeing Labour gain 10% in theirs.

Four percent down for those dratted Conservatives at this point is VERY interesting indeed. I don't think this it is necessarily Johnson or Lewis as some commenters surmise. Or the Davis sensation, looking increasingly like a Robert Kilroy-Silk-alike headed for a TV Production Company. Never mind Spelman or Chichester or Duncan or Dover or Atkins or so on and so forth. Or Cameron being such a wet wassock.

Assuming this Populus/Times thing is a certain-to-vote poll (as it probably is) the all-who-expressed-a-preference vote alongside is likely to see Labour a good few points ahead. Very encouraging indeed. Tories have allegedly lost 100 seats in just a few weeks. Another month like that and hey ho, it's all to play for.

There are some who explain this huge downturn as a slump following the Johnson/McGrath/Lewis debacles in London town. But many disagree. Some even continue to talk of Lewis's silver bullet (ahem) for guns and knives. But what on earth are they on about?

One of biggest parts of the Lewis myth is that this life long lying chancer had the skill set to turn round knife crime in the capital.

He had and still has what amounts to a fancy dress, show-boating, after school club for just 50 kids. These are opted in by supportive parents and supported by predatory old bankers in the City.

But no longer by statutory authorities like Newham. Now they have robust and competitive funding mechanisms. Which Lewis's crew failed to thrive in.

If the Baton Rouge model was followed closely these East London "lost kids" will have been required to have medium-to-high academics and a good attitude from the get go.

It was noticeable that Kip wotsit on BBC News Channel over the weekend appeared to dispute that Lewis had had any input at all to the actions taken so far on knife crime. Yet to report. He was more of a knee jerk but long term mascot.

And of course Lewis got to this point via a de-frocking as a priest, with a cross in the no publicity box, some tremendous baggage from both West Ham and the Leeward Islands, and a year or so he says running a young offenders institute.

Then, praise be, Cameron and Johnson saw that it was good. And it was good. For just 60 days.


Tim J said...

Come on! You guys are on 28%! It's the second highest lead the Tories have *ever* had with Populus! Three quarters of the electorate see Brown as 'a loser'.

If you think this is great news for Labour, I'm looking forward to your post-election broadcast:

"Events have developed, not necessarily to Labour's advantage..."

Chris Paul said...

Oh do come on Tim J! How can a 4% slump at this stage, equivalent to 100 seats on a model that tends to exaggerate seats in these circumstances, be good news for the Tories? And I didn't say it was "great news" now did I? I said it was "interesting". OK, "very interesting indeed", and so it is.

Of course the headline figure for Labour is not great but this is a good big step in the right direction, or the left direction!

And I'm not seeing Dale and Fawkes trying to spin these figures as Tim and Sam have at CH.

Tim J said...

Because it's the, what, 20th opinion poll on the bounce that shows the Tories over 40% and Labour under 30%. Populus have historically under-represented the Tory vote, and the figures on Gordon Brown specifically are atrocious. The Tories have a massive lead on the economy, and on crime.

Labour may have gone from 24% (worse than Michael Foot) to 28% (worse than Iain Duncan Smith) but that's hardly a triumph is it!

Barnacle Bill said...

Well, well, I come back to these shores, and what do I find?
CP still spinning like a whirling deverish for his NuLabor Masters!
Hows tractor production figures for this quarter CP?
I just hope your Master is going to look after you in the coming economic whirlwind.
Or are you going to be with the rest of us farmyard animals at the end of Animal Farm looking in on that feast between the pigs and men.
Then will your eyes be open to the hypocrisy of the NuLabor siren call you have danced to?

benchilltory said...

The mood is like 1997,change is inevitable.
its not a case of your lot losing,only by what margin.
i suspect that you realise this

Chris Paul said...

Before the mood was like that in 1997 it was like that in 1992 too BHT. And welcome back BB. Of the Libs and the Cons which are to be pigs and which men?

Newmania said...

"Events have developed, not necessarily to Labour's advantage..."
Love that quote. Calm down Chris for the Polls to continue the way they were going Brown would have had to have eaten babies on live TV.
Its been a quiet month disaster wise but the underlying problem is the same , bad economy and people want a change.
One thing that interests me is the increasing geographical split . Labour are simply non existent in the South. Its hard to se how that wil ever change there is a cultural gulf