Monday, October 20, 2008

Cameron's Tory Poll Lead Tumbles: 9%, Now 8%, 6%

The 9% was ComRes for the Independent on Sunday. But it's a case of Red Tops to the rescue! The Mirror have the Tory lead down to eight points - HERE. While The Sun have the Tories only six points ahead - HERE, which is I think the margin as on election day 2005.

Mike Smithson muses on The Mirror results and particularly a considerable discrepancy with another YouGov poll (Mail on Sunday) which he believes may have benefitted from being after Cam's Bloomberg Fantasy - that's HERE.

In fact, as The Guardian reveal that poll was, just like the Sun one, showing 6% lead on today's real life circumstances. It only showed 16% when voters were asked to perform the difficult abstraction of ignoring the economic crisis.

This makes me think that just this once Mr Smithson's analysis is not on the money. If it were the Bloomberg speech wot did it as he argues that would surely have made the economics-included one better. And if 6% is better then Cameron and Osborne might as well give up now.

Osborne must be ditched, and soon, if the Tories are to maintain any hope of challenging for government.


Iain Lindley said...

ICM/Guardian tomorrow Con 42, Lab 30. Wouldn't get the champagne out just yet Chris.

Although it is interesting that after wall-to-wall positive coverage for Gordon Brown over the last couple of weeks, you regard an 8% poll deficit for Labour as great news.

benchilltory said...

your doomed i tell you,doomed.
for your lot things can only get worse.
however Mr Paul,answer me this, why was terrorist legislation used against just one of those Icelandic banks?
even for an authoritarian party like yours a bit extreeme dontcha think. there has been no plausible explanation for this action, i wonder why???
must dash now ,off to do my laundry!

Chris Paul said...

Iain first: Clearly after the last month or so of first bad and then fairly good coverage an improvement from -20% to -9%, -8% even -6% in the Sun and in Mail is tremendous. There are still a very large proportion of DKs and WSs but nonetheless seeing up to 2/3rds of the Tory lead vanish in just three weeks is nay bad.

If this ICM one is -12% giving around -9% as the average of the last four then that'll do compared with 20%.

As you probably know -6% was where we got our current majority from.

Benchill Tory: welcome back. Laws with unintended consequences can be a good or bad thing. This one seems relatively good in this use at least. These Icelanders were in fact spreading terror in a civilian population ... i.e. terrorism.

Freeze their icy assets!!