Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Glenrothes Odds: Salmond Fiddles So Why Take Notice

Odd Politics is confusing me. They ran a story reporting The Times and others accusing Alex Salmond of deliberately manipulating the betting markets for the Scottish Play. Yet Odd politics continues to report changes in the odds - including the spread betting - as if they are a reliable guide. When the SNP boss is standing accused of deliberately shortening his own SNP odds by backing himself. Have I missed something significant here?


Anonymous said...

After Labour fiddled the odds with activists laying bets across Britain. Just wait for the result anyway; its the only one that matters.

The people will choose the politics of hope over the politics of fear ... which is why people vote against Labour just as they are voting against the Republicans in the US tonight.

Chris Paul said...

Twaddle. It's a by-election. A vote against the incumbent would not be unusual. However we'll just have to wait and see. The betting markets are no guide. Salmond is at it. And other chancers are at it.

Anonymous said...

You ask have you missed anything significant here? Yes, but obviously it is too awkward for you to recognise Labour started the fiddling of the odds in this by-election.

Labour peddles fear (any non-Labour voter in Scotland, even Tories and Lib Dems will still you that). We shall see if it works in Fife or not.

I doubt it will somehow.

Dave Gordon said...

Hi Chris

a slightly late response from me on the Glenrothes point. I didn't intend to confuse, just to observe.

I observed some movements which suggested SNP manipulation, and several national papers picked up the same message from a different angle.

I also fancied SNP's chances, based on the odds (in a small market, mind you), but I never got around to backing them, so my original hunch won me a 3 figure sum.

I occasionaly give opinions on issues. I occasionally tease bloggers with party affiliations, but I always try to keep my observations on odds factual.

Right now, I have £2 on a general election by the end of the year. Happy to lose it, but at 200/1, and given the main parties are having a tax cutting slagoff, worth a punt.

Peace & prosperity

DG http://www.oddpolitics.com