Sunday, November 09, 2008

Poll Pundits: Maguire, Martin, Dale, Curtice ... Joslin

Kevin Maguire gives the "Mo" to Gordon and credits Sarah Brown. Others such as the bullish Tory-ean Iain Martin are calling the recovery for Mandelson and also speculating on a Spring general election if the poll numbers close. Today's Sunday telegraph meanwhile carry an ICM poll trailed by Labour HQ's favourite cuddly new Tory Blogger giving Tories a 13% lead but a new defecit on Economic Management claiming it "comes after (in print, or "in the wake of" online) Labour's unexpected by-election victory in Glenrothes last week".

This link now says: The poll follows Labour's victory, by a comfortable margin of more than 6,000 votes, in the Glenrothes by-election.

Unexpected*? Really? Nevermind that. The fieldwork was actually carried out on the 5th and 6th of November which is of course before not after or in the wake of that magnificent by-election result, and also largely before the USA result was certain to boot.

I'd hesitate to claim the Telegraph are LYING here. But they are certainly as MISTAKEN as any competent editorial line can be. And the poll story is way down the online new agenda though it is second lead in the inky version.

There is also a mysterious finding that never-struggled, independently-wealthy, blue-blooded, Bullingdon and Eton David Cameron of the Republican-sibling, anti-international, non-progressive, free-the-rich, fuck-the-planet Conservatives would get on better with Barack Obama that Gordon Brown.

Perhaps they are mistaken (or lying) there too? John Curtice's commentary (which isn't served up online) is I feel malevolently hostile to Labour and extraordinarily partial to the Tories. Is the man an academic or a conservative spin doctor? Does he perchance occupy the Ashcroft Chair of Politics?

* FOOTNOTE: Manchester Withington's young Constituency Secretary Mike Joslin, previously a bike monitor for Labour in Henley, was out socialising with the Labour massive in Chorlton last evening. Tired but contented having just returned from Glenrothes where he says Labour victory was actually pretty clear several days out.

That there was joy on the streets that Labour were working so hard and getting the message spot on. And that support was so rock solid that it mattered little where the opportunist antis cast their miserable votes. Though seeing the luckiest by-election victor alive, Rabbie Burns look alike, cluster bomb PR and Lib Dem campaign meister Willie Rennie, losing 80% of his votes to the Nats was of course a particular pleasure. John Leech MP should surely take notice of his pal's demise and venture out of his box to debate with his opposition Lucy Powell.

Mike had also worked for Barack Obama earlier in the summer, worked up the Tory membership haemorrhage report with John Mann MP, and really did have a rather good week all round.

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