Friday, February 20, 2009

BNP Win Sevenoaks Seat: More Cock and Bull From Iain Dale


Iain Dale is a master populist Tory blogger with enviable blog statistics. Even better than Derek Draper's. If that's what floats your boat you'll be impressed. But Iain is no psephologist or statistician. Iain's "training" is in reading German literature I believe.

Anyone who looks at a few bare figures - percentage votes and swings with one less party involved - relating to a BNP By-Election and claims anything is "clear", "obvious" or both really needs their bumps read.

Iain may even be right. I doubt it, but it is possible. What is certain is that he has no basis whatsoever for his self-serving assertions. Part of his "fascists-are-lefties" treatise. It's just an ignorant punt.

What really happened yesterday in working class and relatively poor Swanley in the generally very swanky Tory-run borough of Sevenoaks? - Beyond the BNP winning a
foothold? - I really don't know. But Iain's speculations and the selective put downs, of Chris Paul but not Tories who say the self same things, are several marked registers short of a responsible or useful analysis.

UPDATE 12:35: Figures for Sevenoaks District - Swanley St Mary's by election, 19 February 2009: BNP 408, Lab 332, C 247. (May 2007 - Two seats Lab 462, 420, C 208, 197, Ukip 165). BNP gain from Lab. Swing 10.5 per cent Lab to C.

There was no election in 2008. Very hard to work from an all-out to a single-seat contest. Grass skirts and all. The by-election occurred following the resignation of one of the two sitting Labour councillors.

Before this by-election the Tories held a massive controlling position with 41 seats on Council with Labour on five, Independent on one, Lib Dems on seven. In 2003 this had been 33-10-3-8. So both Labour and Libs were fading greatly or slightly respectively as oppositions.

I'm going to try and find out, for Iain and other truth seekers, why Cllr Lesley Dyball who was a brand new Councillor in 2005, actually resigned. In a different spelling this is a famous name in cyberspace, and in Top Cat to boot. But what was behind all this?

If anyone reading this has any on-the-ground impressions, hard information, background to this by-election please don't hesitate to email or comment.

UPDATE 12:49: New BNP Cllr Paul Golding (above, far right) is a well-known London fascist and in echoes of Manchester's local fascisti drives their BNP liemobile propaganda lorry.

It may be some comfort to read at the link how the BNP got the by-election date wrong (or deliberately mobilised their dunderheads twice perhaps?) and how the late discovery of an animal-rights-terrorism-conviction of one Charlotte in a Croydon by-election on 12 February would, a BNP spokes-idiot told the local paper, increase the BNP's share of the vote.

Lancaster Unity's analysis of last night's result here.

4 comments:

benchilltory said...

today is Gordon Browns birthday,tomorrow it's Mugabes!
what would Mystic Meg say?

Bill Quango MP said...

I know some of the voters. They switched from Lab to BNP.
What is very odd is they are Irish, 2nd generation. If the 'immigrants' are voting BNP your lot must have made a god awful cock-up..

Iain Dale doesn't say its a world shattering event but people are definitely leaving Labour and going BNP.
That is a real worry for the country and its New Labour's fault.
Sort it out. Reconnect and fast.
BNP are a protest vote. No sensible person wants the fascists getting power. Anywhere.
{ I realise that lab to bnp is a huge boost to the tories and shouldn't complain but there is a limit.]

Chris Paul said...

All anecdotal dear Quango. I have myself canvassed people in such contests where they are natural Labour voters (and immigrants themselves) who don't see any problem with voting for the BNP.

For example Irish heritage nurse, born in Ireland in fact, been helped over and over by Labour, and her family, will worry about some "immigrants" taking NHS jobs and consider a BNP vote. She claimed her family were different because they were eager to work and got stuck in. This is of course the standard for immigrants everywhere. Few up sticks and move thousands of miles to become a jobless underclass.

The BNP got 408 votes in Swanley St Mary's.

I honestly think that a few of these, large double figures, may have switched from UKIP, a few from Labour - I know the area it would be stupid to say otherwise, a similar few from Tories, but I believe that at least half these voters will have come from nowhere.

Swanley St Mary's is very complex. The local council is Labour but with a good few Tories from Christchurch etc. The Borough Council is utterly Tory. As is the County Council - though the local man is Labour.

The government is Labour and has been for a long time. The 10% swing Lab to Tory reflects that. But in my view the larger part of this result is habitual non voters protesting against town, borough, county and national government in some combination.

If the Lib Dems were organising in that area they'd have perhaps taken this seat. But alas they're not. The UKIP candidate in the all out was I believe barely paper-plus and they simply don't have ward level organisations to stand and build candidates in by-elections.

Iain will undoubtedly be right that a lot of the casual UKIP (protest) voters became casual BNP (protest) voters. But while I agree that some of the Labour dip will have transferred to BNP I feel more will have either gone on strike or gone Tory. And they'll have a history of being Tory when L are in, and moving to L when Tories rule.

At least half and I would guess up to 3/4s of the BNP voters in this by-election will have been habitual non voters.

There was nothing obvious or clear about the limited stats that Iain provided and his facile conclusions. That is my point. Lots of comments from the right agree.

Anonymous said...

All anecdotal dear Quango...

So the BNP didn't get elected by taking votes from Labour?

And we think Brown is delusional...