Manchester Moston By-Election: 25 Minutes To Go

Looks like the turn out in this by-election will be around one-third. Doesn't sound like too much. But for Moston, Manchester in a By-Election this is VERY HIGH. Is that from a BNP surge? Or an anti-BNP surge? Will the Tories run the BNP close? Or will the Tories be overtaken by the Lib Dems in this corner of North Manchester?