Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Mister GuF's GUY NEWS: Double Drip Regression to Toddler Stage?

Possibly the worst GUY NEWS ever? Since gramophones began?

Growth figure 0.1% announced. But best case is that rises to 0.3499% on revisions. Say 0.25%. Even if holds at 0.15% say does this provide useful headroom for Q1 growth, which remember is vs very piss poor Q1 2009. Anyway, ChrispLOL declare this the WORST EVER attempt at videographic satire from Mister GuF's Bear and Hyena scavengers.

Notice lots of right-wing commenters crediting scrappage and VAT break for this kick. The same people that said these, particularly the VAT break, would never work.


Jimmy said...

To be fair although they did oppose the VAT break they also opposed reversing it. They have been consistently inconsistent.

Anonymous said...
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benchilltory said...

on what basis do you assume that the revision will be upwards?
On most of the last 6 quarters the revision has been downwards.
The average during Labours great recession has been an 0.6% revision downwards.
Given that your lot remain the government for the next 101 days what do you think they will do with the car scrappage scheme and the money printing.will the former be extended and will they carry on printing money?
waiting stage left is our old friend rampaging inflation!!

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Anonymous said...

Pretty cool blog you've got here. Thanx for it. I like such themes and anything connected to them. I definitely want to read a bit more soon.

Anonymous said...

Is Harry Bear O'Sunlight Cunting Cole wearing a fat suit? Or has he ate all the pies?

Chris Paul said...

Benchill old chap .. I just do think the revisions are more likely to be upwards in this case. There is a bit of a pattern in the revisions. Downwards on the down swing and level pegging or up on the upswing.

The whole business of this recession has been that the collapse of the banks and the city and their turnover explains a good deal of the reduction in GDP. Unfortunately when banks frag themselves they cause a lot of collateral damage. But you also get Tory types who run companies seizing the day and laying off staff, shutting marginal outlets and so on and so forth.

Their mantra to come out of a recession stronger than they went in. If as these children assert Ireland is out of their recession I'd rather be in it to be honest. Absolute mayhem over there.

There are a lot of interesting statistical and arithmetic features of all this. Do you realise that a state economy can be "out of recession" if substantially lower than two years before .. for instance .. so long as it's a head of one year before?

Interesting huh?

The old practice of dividing the sectors in such analyses would have been a help here. Invisibles etc. And the fact that many people with mortgages and loans are having it relatvely easy with MORE disposible income is only being negated by Tories and media talking everything down (and saint vince) and talking up saving, which to be brutal is not helping.

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