Charlestown, Charlestown: Will the BNP Take 2nd? Or the Tories? Or those Pestilent Lib Dems?

What a Merry Dance we're led at times. Today has been the Charlestown By-Election. Labour will hold the seat I'm sure. Declaration soon no doubt. And Labour will improve the Council's balance with another woman councillor. Hurrah.

But will the Tories hold second place? On about 430 votes as I recall? Do they deserve to? With no campaign to the electorate at large AT ALL? And if not will it be the Lib Dems, who did run a campaign, who overtake? Or the BNP, who ran a Lib Dem style campaign also? Or even the Greens?