Thursday, June 26, 2008

Political Betting: Henley to Promote BNP to ThirdFourth?

Not much of a blogging day today, but should reap the benefits later. Research trip to Liverpool adds some fuel to the tank. And cockles are warmed as a magnanimous Libdipsologist David Hennigan, agent for the weakest MP in Rochdale history, takes what must have been his top lawyers' sensible advice to cease and desist with the legal threats.

But, what's this? Political betting is suggesting (around 9pm it was) that the BNP might have over-taken Labour's Basher McKenzie in the Henley-on-Thames by-election.

Seems a little unlikely. Would say something about the Henley that Boris has left behind him if the fascist scumbags, in a tweedy weedy kind of cheap suit this time, do happen to pull this coup off. Mike does not say what the price was or even still is on Labour trailing in fourth ...

MEANWHILE: Barrack Obama has a 12 to 15% lead over John McCain and the betting classes in the States are back to betting on raindrops, oh and the spread in the electoral colleges.


Anonymous said...

''Labour's Basher McKenzie''

Thought better of you Chris than to take the tory bait

Anonymous said...

"BNP might have over-taken Labour's Basher McKenzie in the Henley-on-Thames by-election.Seems a little unlikely"

I'm not sure why you thought it unlikely.I think Labour lost its deposit in an equally no hoper seat in Blair's first term.The only difference then was the Lib Dems took the seat from the Tories- this time they got nowhere near.

The lessons? Labour's vote has collapsed by around 10-15% since 2005, voters now see the Tories as electable, the Lib Dems run of bye election wins from the Tories is over.I suspect the Tories will take a lot of Lib Dem seats in 2010.

Chris Paul said...

1. The Basher McKenzie line actually comes from Reading Labour's wronged Jane. Were the Tories actually using it? Not sure why they would address the Labour candidate in this one at all.

2a. I always think it unlikely for the BNP to poll well, but sometimes they do it. Why they've done that in Henley I do not know. Perhaps Boris and Dave can address that question?

2b. But agreed. The Lib Dems by-election machine is not firing on all cylinders. They are breaking all their own rules of the game e.g. on local candidates. They are also burning money I guess. Meanwhile the Tories have got their act together in this phoney war. Their tails are up.

Question: Will the Lib Dem carpet bagger Kearney stay and fight this seat at the General Election? Or will he be off with profile somethingly enhanced back to the SW? Was he renting his local address??!

Alan Wright said...

All in all quite a good result for Labour. Neither the Lib Dems nor the Tories increased their vote by much.
A total non-event.

ebagum said...

Looks like you have finally got a prediction right, Chris. Granted, it has taken a while, but well done anyway.

Indeed, how dare the bookies suggest that the Labour Party would finish fourth in Henley. How unlike these money grabbing capitalists (the bookies, not the Labour Party) talk up Labour's chances like this.

As Michael Crick asked last night. If anybody knows of the last time that Labour finished fifth (yes, that's fifth) in a national by-election then can you please let the BBC know - because they can't find one!