Thursday, July 31, 2008

Fraser Nelson: Too Much Caffeine at Coffee House?


According to Fraser Nelson at the Speccie Coffee House blog Brown has three options, Miliband just two:

Brown must either destroy him, isolate him or yield to him. But Miliband cannot pretend nothing has happened. He has started a war with the most ferocious street fighter in Westminster. He must either finish this fight, or be destroyed. I am told his article was intended to signal "come and get me, Labour party". That's not how it works. Miliband has crossed the Rubicon and is now in 'kill or be killed' territory. And he has plenty to do if he wants to avoid the latter option.

Over-excitable! There is a third or fourth way here. GB must co-opt Miliband as his trusted Junior lieutenant, someone that Brown will nurture for another year or three before he is ready, who will have a go in the Treasury and in the Home Office too, but who is wonking away usefully, on GB's orders in the meantime. Miliband must reciprocate as far as he can.

Now is probably NOT the time for a change. Unless any new leader can turn the Euro elections next year into a triumph? And the next handful of by-elections too? And turn the tricky economic corner very deftly? Waiting at least 9-12 months would be wise. This would take us to the point at which Blair would have handed on the baton, following his own script.

If Gordon happens to be in good shape then, and I would certainly not rule that out myself, waiting until well after winning the 2010 election before taking charge must have its attractions.

13 comments:

Dirty Euro said...

I agree. I actually think Milliband seems OK. Maybe he could be put in a years time. But I agree with this analysis. There does not seem to be any point in changing a leader during the next 6 months when we are about to enter a recession.

benchilltory said...

after 11 years lots of people are feeling the squeeze.If your lot dont do something about that then whomever you have as leader wont make any difference.

Bob Piper said...

Spot on, benchill tory. And if we are truthful, it doesn't matter how inadequate Cameron's response is, people will say, "Oh well, give the other lot a chance".

The crucial thing is, will Cameron make any difference, and hand on heart, do you think he can?

Anonymous said...

Oops, dirty euro said the R word. Take him to the nearest salt mine for 'realignment'.

Chris Paul said...

At least it was with a small r anon, not like yourself. We've had it so good these last few years that any "negative growth" seems very negative indeed. But it's not. Cut your cloth etc.

Some non-stealth redistribution to the least well off - for whom inflation in staples is the most difficult - is what the doctor ordered. Perhaps some tax or clawback on utilities, certainly an exposure of their vapid rhetoric to shame them, and perhaps some form of supertax or at least closing stable door tax.

Cameron is an empty vessel. What is he actually going to say at party conference this time? Will he "memorise" it again? Is that going to be the headline story again?

The Lakelander said...

David Milliband as a prospective Prime Minister?

Has Britain ever had a PM with one eyebrow before?

Anonymous said...

Maybe you could try cutting Inheritance Tax on the most affluent 6% of society or getting rid of the 10p Income Tax rate to 'claw it back' from the less well off and then scrabble about for a quick fix as soon as the press belatedly pick up on it.

Or could it be that you already have?

Then again, you might also try some redistribution (with a small r, of course). Wouldn't want the Daily Mail to find out!

Chris Paul said...

This IHT cut of ours was very much overstated. Just keeping it real in fact. Nothing like the one Cam-Borne still have lined up. 10p Tax - obviously mishandled. So what? Tory governments never make mistakes? Serious ones. Much more serious ones. Like for example shutting down the coal industry out of spite? Or privatising gas out of greed and then coming out with the most extraordinary guff about the government's lack of direct control over the gas industry. Couldn't make it up.

Anonymous said...

The IHT cut was indeed overstated (by the Chancellor, no less). No waiting for the actual Budget or any of that nonsense. A whole announcement all to itself - and right before the phantom election. Coincidence?

And the 10p tax was mishandled, apparently. Bollocks. You were rumbled. Brown announced that nobody would be worse off and even said so at a meeting of the PLP only 10 days before being forced to cobble together a package to help the people who, seemingly, hadn't been adversely affected anyway.

I agree that the aftermath was apallingly mishandled and lies were told but the policy itself was a deliberate smash and grab on the poor.

Dirty Euro said...

I would like to get rid of a bizzare myth created by the tories, that is doing the rounds. There is a tory claim that being the of the manse. The PM would have got special treatment in his town and people would have feared him, (because everyone fears the minister as the minister is sooooooooooo powerful and terrfiying) and that this would have made him arrogant. I grew up in scottish village and I can can assure anyone the minister was not some sort of supreme being. He was just like a vicar or a doctor, or a policeman in England. Scottish villages and towns are not some sci fi novel where the minister is feared by everyone.

Anonymous said...

So the minister was treated just like a vicar? How bizarre. That's Scotland for you.

Anonymous said...

A minister is a vicar.

Anonymous said...

That was my point.