City Centre Tory: Steals Another Blogger's Work

The cheeky Welsh scampie Rob Ad-lard (serial Conservative Loser, City Centre) has copied and pasted an entire LOL post on his scarcely visited blog.

No, of course he didn't ask. No, of course he's not paying me. No, of course he doesn't see any benefit for himself in publishing yours truly revealing some background on his Lib Dem opposition.

Of course Mr Adlard took almost six weeks to muster a retort to this post condemning him for kiddy Tory politics.

Not because he is chronologically relatively young, which the poor dear seems to feel to be the case, but because his contribution was strikingly immature as well as unedited and tedious. He would appear to be confirming his juvenile attributes by (hee hee) nicking other people's work.

MEANWHILE: Manchester Conservatives have I'm told excelled themselves and selected a Mr Bean to contest the Didsbury West Ward (hee hee).

Political Leadership: Hopi Sen Enjoys Unpopularity

Wise before his time Hopi Sen plays a game of Crisis? What Crisis? and enjoys being twee with his girlfriend and juvenile with his Nintendo DS.

Leaving aside the occasional election, political leadership is not or shouldn't be a popularity contest. Doing the right thing and being momentarily unpopular is brave, and Hopi explains.

Evan Price: Lawyerly Exposition Plus Polemic

Evan Price offers an interesting round up of a week in court for the government. HERE. As a lawyer he makes a good polemicist.

But I'm not sure on the tallying - 4-1 to the people over the government - really. The decisions, or judgments as lawyers would have it, are of course more precise than the general reporting thereof.

In reverse order (please refer to Evan's blog for the flesh):

The military equipment one. Not really contested or controversial. But as Evan says the judgment borders on nonsense given the variables. There was an interesting contribution on R5L from a 19-year-old private. He was now wearing "better" body armour but found that it was "worse" in restricting his ability to use his weapon and also his mobility.

BAe Systems and Saud. Well. I'm not sure where this leaves the public interest rationale for abandoning such cases. The threat was an unlawful premise it seems. But what about the jobs, the exports, and the ultimate unwinnability of the case? Where it is not even really clear who the victim(s) is/are.

Inquiry on Iraq War II. There will be one in due course. But as Evan says this is not the way they come about. Though the equipment case offers a different route for skirmishes.

Abu Qatada export deal. Think we all knew that would probably happen. Is he a terrorist subject or a terrorist suspect Evan? He's still in jail of course and may ultimately plead to be allowed to go to somewhere that will be willing to take him.

Immigration rules. These are a right royal mess of course. This is not something exclusively of Labour's doing. The rules are sedimentary and have built up over decades. Need a clean sweep. But as this case shows change is difficult.

Not sure that Evan's conclusion of incompetence ("best ever!") is supported by the evidence he brings to bear. The law in such matters seems to be a process of both attrition and iteration.

And is it really the case that there were only five results in the courts last week where the govt or regina were party?

Iain Dale's Sting: Relying on Bookies for Forecasts

Pre-eminent Tory Boy Blogger relies on bookies' prices on housing market changes. Yes, Iain is reporting what the bookies "reckon" on house prices.

Has he not noticed the old phenomenon of bookies having five windows to take bets and just one paying out? The bookies reckon on making a profit from sentimental, greedy, sporting, gullible, calculating (delete as applicable) folk who fancy a flutter.

With the "value" of many homes in Manchester having gone up by 200% (i.e. now changing hands for three times as much) and indeed much more in some cases in the past eight years we can:
(a) probably afford a 20% dip if the bookies market are "right"; and also
(b) rely on betting markets to be orientated to buying Audi's for bookies.

Not being particularly reliable economic forecasters.

Even if the bookies ARE right this sort of overall fall could be accomplished by a big crash in the exchange value of buy-to-let properties - many held by inveterate gamblers - and a more modest and long expected adjustment in real home prices.

"Eugenics" Bill Debate: Children of a Greater God?

Lib Dem Voice are hosting a debate and poll on "Should deaf parents be able to select deaf babies?" Like Stephen Tall I heard a debate on this matter, but not the Radio Four one to which he refers. But the same deaf activist was on Radio 5, and indeed David Blunkett commented on the debate there.

As so often what the debate was and is missing was/is proportion and quantum. What deaf activist Tomato Lichy and his partner were calling for was not a wholesale screening involving deaf pregnancies in general. No designer deaf babies. Not at all.

They were saying that in the event of deaf people being involved in IVF treatment - which always involves screening and selection of embryos - that there should not be a presumption and compulsion to discard otherwise healthy embryos - perhaps the otherwise healthiest - that could be deaf.

Now it may well be that this will not make a huge difference to many people encountering the issue and feeling the irresistible urge to express an opinion, make radio programmes, lobby law makers, or change the letter of the law as the Department of Health now appears willing to do.

But from my point of view some rudimentary indication of the numbers of people affected would be informative.

Tomato Lichy is inter alia a script writer and technical producer for Deafinitely Theatre, and a performance and media artist.

There is an interesting debate at Mishka Zena's Deaf Read blog.

Telegraph and Vince Cable: Sup at Same Iffy Stats Well

Westmonster reports some partisan reporting from the Daily Telegraph. Now there's unusual. And at one point Westie also jeers at the "four pubs close everyday" stat from the same sort of vague stat heaven cess pool.

These are of course beloved of twisting journalists and lower league politicians such as all Lib Dems. At all levels. Tragically including Dr Vince Cable - the erstwhile safe pair of hands - yet to explain how he got army wage scales and numbers so very bizarrely wrong. Never mind apologise.

But how many NEW bars and assorted licensed premises are opening every day at the moment Westmonster Oli? Did any of these "quality" journalists say?

We have about 20 or 30 more bars in M21 where I live than we did under the last Tory government. Was about seven I think. Now it's about 30 to 35. But, alas, it must be admitted that one traditional pub has closed in the period.

Particularly looking forward to the opening of Orlando's at the corner of Barlow Moor Road and Sandy Lane. Opening on election day no less - Thursday 1st May.

This is in effect a supper club with turns like tokester Howard Marks, gagster Felix Dexter and soulstress Ruby Turner mentioned in dispatches to entertain the 70 or so lucky diners.

No Pasaran! Tories Shall Not Pass: Londoners Speak Up

Speaking of undefeated socialists we have a one-minute vox pop of Londoners backing Ken. Well spotted by Tom Watson MP. Cllr Bob Piper has another.

Our Manc in Mexico: Fidel Castro in Coma, Near Death?

Our Man(c) in Mexico aka Ken has moved his blog.

He has blogsclusive news of Fidel Castro.

Very poorly but stable would be the euphemistic hospital spokesman speak.

"Near-death, in coma" is plainer English. "Invicta" is his legendary status. Like Kent. Clark Kent perhaps?

London Marathon: Huge Day For Tomas Abyu and UKA

Tomas Abyu of Salford Harriers is running today's Olympic Trial/London Marathon as by far the fastest Brit. He clocked 2:10:37 in the last Dublin event. But through the perversity of the selection process Dan Robinson whose best time is rather slower is the only one who will be taken to Beijing if none of the Brits beat the clock today. Tomas is pictured at the XXI Club Dinner which I organised last November with Dr Ron Hill MBE who is a past Commonwealth, European, Boston Champion and three times Olympian with a best of 2:09:28. Which for many should have been recognised as a world record.

The pair compared notes on the selection foibles for these major events. Tomas is exceedingly fit and heads British rankings for half and full marathon. But he is recovering from bronchitis for this particular race day. Will he rise above that? We'll see.

At half way Abyu and Robinson were locked together on 2:11 (i.e. bare automatic qualification) pace. Brendan Foster is as ever prattling half truths and prejudices in the commentary. He wants Dan to go. Because he runs 2:14, 2:15, 2:16 in such events. That is mediocre in historic terms. Tomas has been much faster.

Brendan is also wrong with the 1908 Olympic anecdotes about moving the finish line. It was the start line that was moved in fact.

There is no earthly reason really why the Olympic and other championship marathons shouldn't have far more relaxed entry requirements. If every Olympic nation selected their best three a field of 600 would nonetheless be manageable. Why restrict this to 100? Or 50 or less in the case of a Commonwealth Games? Various past champions debuted in the Olympics and other Championship marathons. Not possible these days.

UPDATE: Robinson is getting the better of the Brits race and should run 2:12:30 or thereabouts. This will be a big improvement for him. But two minutes slower than Tomas' best. Robinson will get to go on the basis of finishing 11th in the Worlds in a relatively modest time. Today's race may well remain Robinson's life time best. Tomas will probably run 2:14/2:15 or thereabouts. I hope that UK Athletics come up with some way of beating the perverse system to take Abyu.

UPDATE 2: Foster has added to his catalogue of mistakes by suggesting the Dublin course was not properly measured. That is not correct. It was simply not an approved event for qualification times. It was of course 26 miles and 385 yards.

Apart from his persistent errors Foster is commercially involved in many of the races on which he commentates. Time for him to move over surely? Now if he'd pointed out the controversy over the course in Belgium on which Derek Clayton ran 2:08 in 1969 - probably at least 400 yards and up to 1200 yards short - and for which all charts and diagrams disappeared. And that Ron Hill should have had a world record in 1970 with the time quoted above. That would have been different.

POSTSCRIPT: Robinson ran about 2:13, Abyu about 2:15.

Political Betting: Gordon Brown, London Mayoralty

Political Betting carries a discussion on Gordon Brown's survival chances based on some trite twaddle from Brown-hater Matthew Parris. More interesting perhaps is a kerfuffle in the betting market over a possible new ipsos-MORI poll in the Observer tomorrow.

Political betting have lauded YouGov as the pollsters to watch. I'm not aware of the methodology ipsos-MORI will have used for this poll vs the most recent Unison-sponsored one. Or even whether it is a distinct poll rather than part of one of their standard Omnibus or Public Affairs Monitor surveys. We may find out tomorrow. Mike Smithson's flutter report indicates it may favour Johnson, though he has been getting out of Johnson positions himself (see YouGov link).

UPDATE: In fact the actual ipsos MORI poll is not bad at all for Ken.

Westmonster: See Way Up There, Those Are Standards

Over at Westmonster doctor's are absolutely apostrophied. Not just in the headline. They're addicted. Like greengrocer's.

"Objections ... has" too. And the "Dali" Lama is that any relation to the Pushme-Pullme from Dr Doolittle? Bring back Sadie! Ah, here she is after all. Well worth a gander. Link soon.

As sausage reviewers go Tom Watson has the visage and the stature of a man who might be trusted on the matter. No signs of malnourishment there as my vet once commented on a solid feline.

Meanwhile Vince Cable is still a very silly sausage.

Where on earth did the good doctor get the squaddie wages figures he has been spouting as they are completely and utterly wrong.

Strangely commenters at LDV are trying to change the subject on that one. Don't panic, don't panic. Graphic: leftwinfconspiracy.com.

Lib Dems: Sleep Walking to Control in Wareham Town?

Lib Dem Voice report a Council changing hands in very unusual circumstances. By two, count 'em, walkovers in by-elections for Wareham Town Council. Has a council ever changed hands before by walkover?

UPDATE: This was a Tory held seat, and an Independent (Tory-ish) seat. Tories did not put up candidates where they ought I suppose to have WON. Which makes his complaint about Labour not putting up whipping boys or girls to LOSE in the NW rather strange. MORE UPDATE: Iain's example is a weedy Parish Council.

Don't Panic, Don't Panic: Where Is Cable's Figure From?

Where on earth does Vince Cable (right with a pre-pubescent Clogg) of the Lib Dems get his army wages figures from?

There are only two categories of squaddies who get less than the figure he quoted. These are University Cadet entrants at levels one and two, who are I think in effect students with their hols and weekends mapped out for them, and new other ranks entrants in assessment.

The Private at Level Three which Dr Cable quoted is paid either £18,657.72 (higher rate) or £16, 544.64 (lower rate). Level One Privates are all paid £15,677.04 and barring their assessment and initial training this is what they're all on as a bare minimum.

Where does Cable's £14,349.00 come from? And the figure of 66,000 being at or below that pay? Our figures are from the British Army pay scales for the year to 31 March 2008 as shared HERE. So there's even been a pay rise. VC - shame on you!

Heads It's Ringo: Liverpool Confidential Offer Reward

Liverpool Confidential have nicked the old "privet parts" joke and offered a reward for return of Ringo's head.

The ornate topiary that is. Not the mop-topped tub biffa.

No-one in Liverpool cares if they never see him again. If only he'd taken Fireman Bradley and Tall Storey with him.

Al-Yamamah Deal: Gordon Brown Should Stand Firm

Military procurement expert Iain Dale has set up a false dichotomy in this extraordinarily naive post on BAe Systems and the Sauds.

Interestingly Malcolm Rifkind was on Channel 4 News last night and pretty much backed all the relevant decisions. It is hard to escape the following conclusions:

1. Tories in power would have done exactly the same as Blair did, and will do so if they ever get back into power;

2. The Public Interest rationale is NOT properly understood by the more up their own arse and political elements of the judiciary and actually allows governments to do things that are unlawful - makes them lawful I suppose - if there are good enough reasons;

3. We all know that Saudis have had commissions, kick backs, introduction fees, marketing payments, consultancy, bribes etc. From French, USA, Swiss, Brits, whoever wants to trade there. We don't need to spend millions to confirm that;

4. We all know that this is usual practice in various world markets for arms, for oil and even for sports centres (it's a long story that one);

5. Tories in government would have done the same. Their commentati should grow up. Particularly boy bloggers. Brown should say no. Cameron should back him up. Leave the Lib Dems voting against jobs and pragmatic if dirty realism;

It is not a case of knife Tory Blair OR lose the order as Mr Dale seems to suppose in a woefully false and naive dichotomy. It is an AND. Knife AND lose. So don't knife Tory Blair, don't lose order seems the correct response here.

I say this even as a long term supporter of CAAT who would clearly prefer there to be far less weapons in the world and far less arse kickinglicking with Sauds.

There are some good comments back at Iain's including one from Richard Dale who says this:

I know someone deeply involved in the investigation. Despite his being a lawyer I would trust his judgement (he is a very good and, unusually, a very honest lawyer) and more importantly it was in his interest for the case to continue, as he was being paid by the hour.

He says that the decision was entirely correct. While there was plenty of evidence of payments that went against British morals, none of them were actually illegal at the time they were made. Despite what a lot of lefties try (including or government) laws should not and generally are not made retrospective.

Libdemologists: 66,000, Yet Another Gross Exaggeration

While I've no doubt that Vince Cable, quoted by Lib Dem Voice is correct that some military personnel lose on the 10p tax farrago, I've also no doubt that the figures proffered are exaggerated shamelessly by the meister fibbers.

Vince says "up to 66,000". This is surely a knowing gross over-statement of any £90 per annum tax losers in the military, relying on ALL entry ranks e.g. Privates being on or below a certain grade and its starting point.

The claim also does not account for benefit changes which affect a goodly proportion of any losers. Hardly any serviceperson is on any starting pay point at any one time.

I would totally agree with anyone - such as Yorksher Gob Jennie (Lib Dem) - who suggests simplifying so there should be no need to claim benefits to get the ahem benefit of the system(s). One of her commenters bemoans the fact that even members (like Jennie) don't know that this is LD tax policy.

That is probably because LD tax Policy is irrelevant to the debate. LD's can say absolutely anything on national matters because this will never but never be costed properly, and will never be tested in real life. Reality for a third party franchise.

The military are workers in uniform. They are not tremendously well paid. But the quoted pay point of £14,300 actually compares favourably to many starting pays (even maximum pays) out there in the real world of C1C2Ds; and in truth most service people are on considerably more than this in cash terms and also have other benefits such as accommodation, food, sports and social, and vocational training that many in our estates can only dream of.

Gross fibbing with numbers is a trait that should be resisted by all of us and in which Lib Dems appear to specialise. Under the old Effective Opposition "shameless exaggeration" mantra.

Can Lib Dem Voice or Vince Cable now, urgently, unpack the 66,000 figure and provide the correct figure? Preferably with an apology for the knowing exaggeration? I’d be surprised if this 66,000 figure is not at least a ten fold exaggeration, particularly accounting for benefits (both state and work-related), pay settlements, and change in allowances.

I hope there is a sensible settlement for those who have lost on the banishment of the 10p rate. But this ain’t helping.

City of Horti-Culture: Ringo's Privet Parts Removed, Again

There's no beating about the bush from Dr Rupa Huq HERE but this has not been the case in Liverpool this week. Ringo, who rooked a substantial five-figure sum from the CoC for his miserable plodding exile song, has had his privet parts unceremoniously removed HERE.

London: GuF Backs Johnson on the Old Bull and Bush

Mr GuF supports the Conservative mayoral candidate's policy on an amnesty for illegal immigrants. David Cameron does not.

The bigger problem with the policy of course is that the Mayor of London has no agency on Home Office policy in these matters. It's just bullshit from bullshit central. Showing the folly of feeding cocaine and skunk weed to psychologically susceptible Old Etonians in their formative years.

Which in Boris' case may well be ongoing. Below right on a recent "red nose day".

And what on earth was he on when he last appeared on Newsnight? Where were the bog police from The Evening Standard to expose his afflictions?

Hilariously testing the tops of cisterns in bogs where they themselves - guttersnipes one and all - were allowed to go. Ho ho ho. The Manchester Evening News used similar testing kits and ran a front page scoop: Cocaine: The Hidden Epidemic. They didn't find much. Except in their own loos, in hospital loos, and in police loos.

Manchester Confidential had us snorting in the aisles as they quite righty voted that the worst story of 2007. Not as bad as the Standard's perhaps. But bad.

So Weak: Spectator Coffee House/Dale Continue Smears

The Spectator's Coffee House blog ran a wafer thin smear on Ken. Suggesting something or other about his campaign's financial supporters I suppose. And using a single anecdote from 2004 to make their point and some utterance on TV.

Newsnight's debate was a zoo. Largely thanks to Boris's boorish interrupting, showboating, twittering. Like one of the less engaging characters from Postcards From the Edge. And this a man who has set up a donate by text system that could conceivably launder huge amounts of secret donations.

It may be that this year Ken has a system to shield him from immediate knowledge of his donors. But clearly that cannot last very long as they become public knowledge as they are declared.

The Coffee House post implies he is aware of all his donors now when in general that may be untrue. And it relies on these 2004 anecdotes. So weak. Have they not got anything about Johnson and Paddick donors to give the impression that they have the sort of balance and fairness expected of proper journalists?

Meanwhile Mr Dale gets on his high horse, again. This time over possibly free travel in london for the poorest of the poor.

Seems to me the idea of free travel for refugees and asylum seekers and I suppose some form of registered "subject to detention" people who are in appeal processes - and indeed job seekers and ultra poor - is not a bad one.

Though I would have thought Iain's emotive term "Illegal Immigrants" would not actually be a factual description of those most likely to take this up.

Such a scheme would actually save the Home Office and others from subbing the travel at full cost too, and also people missing signing appointments etc because they don't have £4 for a tube or £2 for a bus or whatever.

If there is no way to do this with recourse to UK public funds then finding some way to have it sponsored or funded commercially seems like a very reasonable and creative work round.

Seems ridiculous to me that those seeking work don't get any sort of concession on most public transport. Ridiculous in fact. JSA is not enough to fund anyone to "get on their bike and look for work".

So Weak: When Is A U Turn Not a U Turn?

Iain Dale's Diary quoth "An Olympic Sized U Turn From Gordon Brown". But actually it's not a turn of any sort. So weak.