Absolute Votes: Sheila Newman in Hall of Fame

Not only did Labour's Cllr Sheila Newman hammer John Leech's franchise candidate by 259 votes in my home ward of Chorlton but Sheila also gets into David Ottewell's county wide Hall of Fame.

Meanwhile Cllr John Leech MP still hasn't explained where he's getting his four colour process printing from as requested. We'll be interested to see Leech's franchise people's campaign expense declarations and how the ink blot allocates his office overhead.

And meanwhile I've yet to hear what's occurring on the question of the ex-Mayor Cllr Sandiford and his proxy voter plot.

TRIVIA: It may be that the all-time biggest Labour vote in a Manchester Local Government election c 3,500 was Tony Dale's 2001 by-election victory Whalley Range; agent-in-chief Yours Truly. Wind at our backs: General Election.

COBBLERS: Brown Down, Tractor Production "Best Ever"

Central Office Bobbins Blogging Enterprises (COBBLERS) carried the tragic story of Secretary Stalin's dip in the polls but missed the good news of a huge increase in tractor production in the north. Which fact really matters to workers of the world.
Meanwhile Czar Cameron's Conservative opposition are still pursuing a policy of having no policies whatsoever. "We've learned this over time" said Cam "When our policies of cutting vital services, undervalued and mishandled privatisations and making the rich richer become known we always drop through the floor in the polls. We're keeping schtum."

Lib Dem Confessional: Corrosive Weasel Words Are Us!

Go Martin Go! Obviously you're right about Labour's aspirations and Billy Bragg. And you're certainly right about the Lib Dem's collossal contribution to corrosion and cynicism:

... when we move into the realm of unsubstantiated allegation, weasel words, sly jibes, innuendo, and such like, then we contribute to the corrosive cloud of public distrust. It is unethical. It is destructive. And, what’s more, I believe it is counterproductive.

You'll not change it though, sorry Martin. It is there in the Lib Dem constitution. "All things to all people!" and "Weasel words are us!" it says, though it must be said it is naturally expressed in riddles.

Labour Home Survey: Grass Roots Advice to Mr Brown

Take this new Labour Home survey HERE.

Don't Trip Up: Was I Suggesting a Core Vote Strategy?

Writing at some length at Labour Home about the complexity of the supposed "swing" to the Tories and the need to do the business for fairness I am a little surprised for this to be described as a lumpen core vote strategy and linked with some worthy Wiseman wishes and thepowerlesslowpaid's slogans by one Stephen Farrington of Cardiff.

Someone incidentally who eschews "class politics" yet appears to believe that socio economic group C1 is "professional" rather than working class, never mind group B which actually includes teachers, midwives and many other public services workers. All kinds of white collar working people.

Here is the piece in full with a couple of typos corrected:

The sum of all changes in voter choice in limited local government elections, plus a much closer run thing in London, is clearly a swing from Labour to the Tories. But this simple sum hides a multitude of calculations.

There has been quite a lot of talk on blogs, in the mainstream media, and from politicians including Prince Charming Cameron of a shift in individual voters from Labour to Tory. But is this really what occured on Thursday?

In the valleys of South Wales the swing from Labour was to essentially Labour-ish Independents by those who would not vote Plaid, or Lib, or Tory and who will be back to vote Labour come the General Election as Hopi Sen pointed out the morning after the night before.

In other places we saw tactical Tories who have been voting Lib Dem to spite the "socialists" for as many as ten years going back to the Home of the Blues.

And in others perhaps an increase in the number of tactical Labourites who held their noses and voted for the Libs in the face of a Tory regrouping.

There were areas where Local Government Labour has not maintained the conversation with core voters sufficiently to prevent a stay-at-home or some dabbling in protest on national issues. Principally the 10p Tax Gaffe.

In those same areas and elsewhere Tory campaigns picked up and many slumbering voters were probably shaken awake after years of staying home.

And in Manchester in so far as there was a Tory revival beyond the usual minor swings on national issues this came in unexpected ways. In Cheetham Hill and Whalley Range the most extraordinary things happened.

Young Asian "Tories" leapfrogged from fifth to second in the former and fourth to third in the latter, quadrupling their party's votes. But these are not Tories. They pushed out bland (and yet quite ridiculous) Tory leaflets with one hand and a communalist message with the other.

These guys were standing not to give a particular community or political persuasion voice. Not a nation or even a province. This came down to harnessing votes from villages in a particular valley in North Punjab.

And even more exceptionally the campaign in both wards saw Tizb_ut-Tahrir leaflets also doing the rounds - the Stand Up for Islam ones showing Brown with Bush and claiming the Qu'ran is to be banned - and in Whalley Range these were distributed with a side order of threats by Tory campaigners.

That really is exceptional. Shameful that Cameron's party can't control such hotheaded tactics.

But all the other scenarios and calculations are pretty widespread surely? We probably don't have the detailed numbers in many wards to track what is happening. It is a good deal easier to tackle the sums that show in the bare results than to understand the workings. But working to deal with the superficial sum of Labour to Tory swing will not and cannot work.

The masturbatory triangulating "roundheads" of the party must now throw their hands up and stop playing games with themselves for the benefit of 8,000 or 80,000 key voters. The rot has now spread well beyond these, but it is not too late to turn things round.

As Fabian General Secretary Sunder Katwala has proposed here Labour simply need to get back to doing the right thing and being seen to be doing the right thing. In a unified way, which may well mean looking to pick agreements rather than picking fights.

In 1997 Blair swooped into Number 10 NOT on the basis of some nuclear physics level mathematics by swing voters but on a national feeling that it was time to flee from selfishness, harsh market economics, fat cats and me me me. And to bring public services back up to speed.

Ironically we're now getting to a point where the same flight from selfishness, harsh market economics, fat cats and me me me may appear to be a flight from Labour to the more hard-of-thinking commentators. Though I don't know why anyone would trust Charisma Boy not to slash the public services.

Good works in redistribution, poverty reduction, economic stability and growth have been achieved but these pesky triangulators have been advising that these be kept fairly quiet and essentially trying to find and press the selfish buttons of key voters.

While simultaneously pissing off layer upon layer of Labour's natural coalition of workers' interests.

Let this stop right now. Let's get back to really living the best of the soundbites. "For the many not the few" we say. But then as we introduce a minimum wage we also give the rich and super rich completely unnecessary tax breaks. To the extent that they become so rich and so greedy that they can yacht off to tax havens.

There is no need whatsoever for a change of leader. But as a party we do need to make sure Gordon Brown has an up-to-date map of the territory beneath our feet and that his compass is not deflected by alchemists and those masturbatory triangulators.

Their activities have rather inevitably made them go blind and weak at the knees.

Crewe and Nantwich: Tory Lived in Paper Bag in Road

It seems that the Tory candidate in the Crewe and Nantwich by-election is trying to trade on the fact that he "lived with 80 foster children" (Channel 4 News). "You were lucky!" seems to be the idea "I lived in a paper bag in a puddle in the middle of the road." The candidate was in fact the son of a house which welcomed short term foster kids. Trying to excuse Tory showboating on the 10p tax - under Tories of course, with Cam as a Treasury Advisor, it was 22p with no minimum wage, no minimum income guarantees, lower allowances and no step changes in pensions.

And despite the 10p Tax Gaffe there has been a very substantial distribution these last 11 years from the wealthiest to the lowest four deciles in particular.

Lib Dem Voice's Mark Pack made a ridiculous "Joke" about this man here - showing the blog standard level of Lib Dem humour, local fetishism and a very good standard of Dale-baiting - but if Cam's Chester Barrister is going to pretend to be Oliver! at the drop of the Artful Dodger's hat we'll be applauding Lib Dem honesty before the campaign is over.

Councillor Falstaff: Throwing Down the Outsize Gauntlet

When a Falstaffian figure of a man waddles up to the bar at a post-election celebration - for hammering Leech's candidate in Chorlton by 259 votes - and starts comparing beer bellies we know we've carried the "strengthening" campaign based on carbohydrate loading a little too far. When Cllr Falstaff reveals that he was in fact the Westmorland u13 Cross Country Champion the message is amplified. Looking forward to seeing Jim BattleFalstaff on the starting line of the Greater Manchester Run on Sunday 18 May and seeing which of us has the better muscle memory. It'll have to be under 45 minutes for the 10k to best even a lardy wobbling blogger.

Astonishment: Crikey There Goes Charles Clarke, Again

As sure as eggs is eggs Charles Clarke can be relied on to do his damndest to rain on Gordon's parade. So why is Iain Dale astonished when Charles does the deed, again. Has Iain been living on another planet this last couple of years? Or is he just laying everything on a bit THICK?

Deputy Mayors: Boris Johnson Will Have "Lots"

The appointment of the social entrepreneur, pastor and ex-young offenders Governor Ray Lewis as "a Deputy Mayor" (Telegraph, Pic Justin Sutcliffe) has caused a great hurrahing in some quarters, and not a little harumphing in others. Such as in comments on that previous link.

Not mind you about Ray's achievements or potential contribution. Though there will always be a debate about the segregation / separate development model whoever is practising it*. The CV provided by the Mayor's press office is a bit sketchy. But what there is of it looks grand (below).

When he was starting his Academy (2001/2) Ray's gut feeling about the Tories as confided to The New Statesman this year was as follows:

I couldn't stand the Conservatives. I thought they were all a bunch of greedy bastards.

Good stuff from an ordained pastor! Though IDS it seems turned him. Let's hope he's turned again by the Bullingdon posse.

So what's the controversy?

Well, although this experiment of Ray's is taking place in the Socialist Republic of Newham, aided and abetted by DfS funds passported through the LEA, FEFC and LSC funds inter alia there is an attempt to badge it otherwise.

Iain Dale's natural sectarianism I suppose, and I should talk!, whereas Cassilis explains that is is Johnson's and Cameron's and Blair's perceived non-sectarianism (apoliticalism?) vs Brown's alleged tribalism that appeals.

But isn't there but one Deputy Mayor in the usual scheme? Whether there is an attempt to pass it round between parties - with the Greens and Labour accepting - as in Ken's first term. Or whether it is held by co-idealogue as in Ken's second term.

Speaking to the press office I find that Boris Johnson is planning to appoint a good few of these "Deputy Mayors", essentially renaming the "Mayor's Advisor" positions of the old regime. There doesn't seem to be any clarity on how many of them there will be

But the title was compared by an insider to a Corporate Vice-President. There was a little further comment on the potential for confusion through using the same title as the Assembly position for say 20 such "Deputy Mayors"?

This brought the view that: "It won't be as many as that." Which is I suppose reminiscent of Clegg's evasion on the sexual profligacy question.

At the time of writing it is unclear whether these folk will attract salaries in the same six-figure ball park as their predecessors. And in Ray's specific case whether he will be leaving his work at the Eastside Young Leaders Academy. Here's the thumbnail CV:

Ray was born in Guyana in 1963 and attended schools in Walthamstow. He began his career working as an administrative officer for the Civil Service before becoming a Clerk in Holy Orders for the Church Commissioners in 1990. During this time he gained a degree in Theology & Pastoral Studies from Middlesex University.

After working at HM Prison Woodhill, Milton Keynes, Ray became Executive Director of Eastside Young Leaders' Academy in 2001. He is also a Trustee and Governor of the Petchey Academy in Hackney and a Justice of the Peace.

His motto is: "We see no shortage of young black males in the courtrooms, so my vision is to seek to prepare as many as possible for the boardrooms."

Ray is married to Pamela and they have three daughters aged between 16 and 21.

Other inspirational leaders to whom Cameron has cosied up include the doyens of the United Estates of Wythenshawe project - also supported by Tory-linked city charities - and his candidate in Whalley Range was, delightfully I'm sure, in cahoots with Hizb_ut-Tahrir.

* FASCIST REACTION: Here's Stormfront.org. Not for the faint-hearted.

Cassilis: The Great Literature Tag Game

Liam of the always interesting Cassilis blog has tagged me to perform the following:

Pick up the nearest book
Open to page 123
Find the fifth sentence
Post the next three sentences
Tag five people and acknowledge who tagged you

Just to mix things up a bit I'll stick strictly to the script and not reveal the name of my book.

And afterward they will not be helped. Ignominy shall be their portion wheresoever they are found save (where they grasp) a rope from God and a rope from men. They have incurred anger from their Lord, and wretchedness is laid upon them.

I have changed one word in the translation for an equivalent. There were no books on my desk when I opened the post.

If I had gone left I might have got the The Skeptical Environmentalist, 24 Hour Party People or British Hit Singles.

But as I went right I landed on this one, with near misses a Sarah Brown cookbook and The New Mother Syndrome. Both shelves being rather like one of those library trolleys of returned but not shelved books,

Let me see. Whom shall I tag then?

Rupa Huq, Will Parbury, John Hirst, Iain Dale, Fluxlist

The latter (a group of 100 or so artists etc) because this script reminds me of Fluxus happenings and their scripts.

School Choice: Dr Huq's School of Hard Knocks

Dr Huq has been selling her body of knowledge over at Harry's Place. Essentially reflecting parental anxiety over school places, sink school, free school dinners, and statemented kids.

What a media tart she is getting to be! Here's my comment:

Having met some of the Ealing massive and their rising 4s I understand the problem described here by school governor and former PPC "Rubina" Huq.

It just struck me as I listened to their plaints that getting together and piling into the so-called "sink" schools you were allocated under a transparently fair and fully advanced system would "turn them round" or at least raise their statistical performance.

When I asked whether these anxious parents had looked at the Ofsted reports for the allocated schools I found that they had not done so.

When I asked whether these anxious parents had checked the applicable distances last year for their target schools and chosen accordingly I found that they had not.

When I asked these anxious parents whether they had even used all three of their choices, never mind wisely, I found that some of them had not even done that. OMG! FGS!

When I asked these anxious parents whether they had chosen their addresses very carefully I found that some had moved very recently but ended up 200 metres too far away - 500 instead of 300 metres. Which is missing by a mile if you're that serious about such things.

And while some of the parents had actively sought work-rounds e.g. nan's addresses they were willing to start a campaign of outing parents who had found rellies willing to play along, or temporary rented accommodation or whatever it was.

We were right to oppose SATs - particularly when young kids are coached to within an inch of their young lives to keep the school economy healthy.

We should also make sure parents understand the purpose of value-added measurements and their superiority to absolutes for measuring schools.

And also the sheer stupidity of using the numbers of free school meals or statemented kids as measures of school genius levels.

In Finland they don't even go to "big school" until they are about 7 years old and they stay in the same school to 16 and they do very very well indeed.

No faith schools AFAIK, mixed education, no publically announced intermediate exam grades, every school a good school.

Parental choice IS a bit of a sham really. Other means of allocation need to be used unless they are LOADS of school places perceived as good enough for little dears and there have to be loads of surplus spaces or infinitely flexible intakes for this counsel of perfection to become reality.

This is ridiculous! This is unnecessary anxiety to the point of suicide! Kids are very durable and find their own level almost wherever they go to school.

There are some appalling instances of mistakes at my kids' schools but by and large they are winning more than they're losing and will do just fine. One of mine was put in completely the wrong science set for example and may miss doing two extra GCSEs as a result. One child was just moved UP into the A or A* set, having got an E, to make room for some B kids to move down.

The head of science should be taken to one side and taught Newton's laws. What goes up must come down being perhaps the best one for her particular case.

But I digress.

My kids are also I think more likely to make the subject choices they want in the NEAREST STATE SCHOOLS that they have always gone to than they would have done under some brain grading centre of excellence, independent, or vestigial state selective with less vocational options. Nonetheless they will have enough and good enough academics to change tack if they wish to.

First appeared as a comment at Harry's

Iain Dale IPM: The Great London Lefty Clearout Begins

Iain continues to recommend a scorched earth strategy towards all City Hall officers. My advice to officers there is: "Don't resign, help Boris help Londoners, or at least wait for Iain's silly wrongful dismissal to come along".

Pass go, collect £200,000. Or whatever.

Dale's Sour Grapes: No 94 - Bruce Anderson

Sour grapes connoisseur and arch exponent Iain Dale says Bruce Anderson's analysis of his treasonous former boss Boris Johnson must be crap. Because Bruce resigned from the Speccie when Boris gave his column to George Galloway. Or actually Iain Dale says - with either sour grapes or mendacity - that Bruce was sacked by Boris.

As some of us have pointed out if one must declare any runs ins (and indeed assists) from a subject then Andrew Gilligan should regularly declare his "familiarity breeds contempt" take on Ken, and his "Johnson saved me" eternal gratitude to Bor-eeece.

Recovering From Labour Day: Post on LabourHome

LOL have stuck a post up on LabourHome for the first time in twelve months. The "switch" from Labour to Tory reflects the sum of many small calculations but how many voters simply switched? Not a lot. Time to get back to Labour's core mission. Forget the Tories. And forget picking disagreements among ourselves. Let's start picking agreements. And catching Gordon doing things right.

Crewe and Nantwich: Labour Select Tamsin Dunwoody

Andrea posted the story last night at Labour Home. Watch this space for campaign details. Here's a Times piece on the family from 2004.

By the look of it variously aliased Grant 1234 Shapps and his sock puppets have been out in force at the local paper's website. Transparent and ugly tactics from the horrid nasties.

I would seriously suggest that that newspaper monitors and immediately publishes any strange patterns in IP Addresses and Pseudonyms. And also that Wikipedia are zapped an image of Moyra Tamsin immediately.

CAPTION: It was tremendously generous of Tamsin's grandad Morgan Philips to lend the family slogan to the party and Clem Attlee in particular. Tory ne'er-do-wells will find it anyway ...

So Weak: Dale Meets Gordon's 128th Ancester

Desperate times for temporarily triumphant tory tossery call for desperate measures. Iain Dale has been tipped off on the occupation of one of Gordon Brown's predecessors - 128th of the bloodline - who was a local Merchant Grocer.

Genealogist Dale, of bovine farmer stock himself, thinks this will save Dave from future accusations of being a flim flam snake oil salesman with no policy clothes on him whatsoever. Pah-bloody-thetic!

UPDATE: Dale did get something right yesterday and, like a dog walking on its hind legs, this does need to be acknowledged. Iain correctly guessed the number of goals to be scored at Old Trafford. Though not quite their distribution between the parties. Partisan chump: 0-5 to the Hammers. Actuality: hammered 4-1.

Labour's Presentation Skills: The Medium or the Message

Labour Home is carrying a discussion on Labour's presentation skills. Interesting stuff. But surely the main issue is NOT the MEDIUM but IS the MESSAGE.

My view is that Cameron has NO MESSAGE but lots of MEDIUM. And that in a flurry of wanton and rather unquestioning triangulation we have perhaps lost the ability to ask the fundamental question to those who are Labour's direct priorities. Our mission.:

"Are you winning more than you're losing?" (AYWMTYL)

Not these mythical 8,000 or 50,000 key voters mind. The supposed beneficiaries of Labour incumbency and effort.

And for the empathisers "Are the people you want to see being helped - including your kids, your elders, your poorer neighbours, the world poor - winning more than they're losing as you'd like?"

If we allow the media and the voter at large to make almost every issue into a deal breaker and/or get back into the Thatcherly habit of being personally selfish then we are bound to lose support.

If there is an ongoing engagement and AYWMTYL is the question rather than some counsel of perfection then we can keep up the direction of travel on stability, employment, redistribution, environment, world poverty.

You cannot please all of the people all of the time after all. And if as incumbents you pretend you can - as the Tories and the Lib Dems can do in opposition - you are surely bound to come a cropper.

Iain Dale: In the Bored Room, Encourages Gaffe

Here's personnel expert Iain Dale encouraging Boris to commit an immediate gaffe by sacking a successful senior official with a good, ahem, track record. Just here. No doubt Boris will close thelondonpaperThe Londoner and save £3 million. But he'll have to replace it soon enough.

And replacing it with £10 million of thank you adverts in The LES will not do it.

UPDATE: I have finally bothered to change the name of the newspaper Boris may be shutting. I had followed an Iain Dale gaffe which he had persisted with - hilariously so as he was trying to point up my ignorance of the metropolis - until shot down in flames in comments at the linked piece.

Tory Triumphalism: They Just Don't Get It Do They?

Agree with anon 12:30 reviews of the speeches at Iain Dale's. Boris did fluff/bottle his "joke" about Meier/Mayor at the get go didn't he?? But otherwise it was a humble and positive opener for the former buffoon. Ken was excellent in response. Paddick was of course a complete and utter Lib Dem tosser.

For the next 24 hours London is safe. Then we must start to worry.

Cam and Dale are wrong of course in thinking the last 48 hours of happiness are in reponse to the policy platform of the Cuddly Nu Tories. There is no policy platform, so how could it be?

The results in the country are I feel a protest vote based on one or two particular issues - the 10p tax gaffe and perhaps the credit crunch, though goodness knows Tories do those far worse and far more frequently.

Brown should have squared off the 10p Tax Gaffe immediately the attacks belatedly began.

London has I believe been less moved by that than other points North, South, West and East but in the final analysis it was close enough that the stay homes and protests on that problem probably did tip the balance.

Ken was therefore very gracious indeed to accept responsibility on his own shoulders without a quibble and to thank Labour for unstinting support.

Question: How will a Mayoral election in the run up to London 2012 actually play? Fascinating. Assuming Boris doesn't mess up so badly he is in prison and replaced by then.

Observation: The 2nd preferences did not matter Boris won by 15,000 or so without his. Which thankfully means the BNP can claim no credit as Shagger Barnbrook takes his place in County Hall. Strangely there's no place for him on the BNP masthead. Is he about to change parties?

Fantasy: By-election soon in London, perhaps by Galloway taking Chiltern Hundreds for old comrade. Ken wins by a landslide. Boris is out canvassing for him. Brown graciously falls on his sword to allow Ken a run at the leadership. McDonnell, Meacher and Denham sit on hands and Back Ken. Ken Livingstone is Prime Minister! Ten More Years!

FREUDIAN SLIP: Quite like Tory Trimuphalism. But have corrected headline.

Cokey Minor Royal "A": Swallows His Pride

Monarchists everywhere will be glad to see the good old Viscount L's shakedown crew going down as it were. Perhaps these disrespectful speedsters will end up slipping in the shower with fellow Royal-baiter Mr Guf?

UPDATE Saturday morning: As a commentator at 0:11 pointed out the clown Boris Johnson is now the Clown Prince. A rather good acceptance speech, only fluffing/bottling his one "joke" "Thank you Mr Meier" (sounds like Mayor!!!!), and an extremely good speech from Our Ken. Brian Paddick also mumbled something.

Compass Online: Declare New Labour Dead, Again

What are the homeopathically "left-wing" Compass think tank for? Using Blairy soundbites against the Blair - Brown - Mandelson - Lawson - Campbell third way? Looks like it, according to Mr Lawson, the very same, hisself.

JOKE: Why is the Mayoral declaration four hours late? Because Johnno is now in charge. Ha ha, ho ho. Unfair admits Michael White on BBCN24. But hey ho. You gotta larf ain't ya? DAY AFTER TOMORROW: Boris Stills RMT Union. Bloody brilliant! Playing fields and behind bike sheds of Eton and all that. What! What!

Full Results: City of Manchester, City of Salford

Manchester HERE and Salford HERE.

Increasingly Ridiculous Iains: Two Plus Two Is Twelve

LOL's increasingly ridiculous oppo Iain Dale is streaming what passes loosely for consciousness and gossipy reportage on his blog. Makes it very hard to link Iain, this hours and hours of granular yet viscous content. Anyway, Mr Dale has cumulated the votes in Crewe and Nantwich exclusively to find that Labour and the Tories are neck and neck when it comes to the 22 May by-election there.

4.35 EXCLUSIVE: It's a Two Horse Race! These are the Crewe & Nantwich provisional share of the vote figures...

Cons 31.15%
Labour 31.8%
LD 18.70%
Others: 18.35%

Now if that doesn't make this a tasty by-election, I don't know what does!

This really is a schoolboy error and riding for a fall, hand in hand.

Iain Lindley has done the same thing in comments here with Salford results when it comes to the new Worsley Seat from just two, count 'em, wards and also for Salford as a whole . So perhaps this schoolboy error/riding for a fall thing is a trait of Tory Boy Bloggers named Iain?

Experience shows that turnouts in General Elections and By-Elections are between two and four, say three times higher than Local Elections and often with a quite different profile. It is therefore exceedingly foolish to extrapolate from local elections to parliamentary elections.

London Mayor: Has Boris Emulated Milton Tzangerei?

With around 50% of the boxes in the system we're hearing that Bojo may be about to emulate the watermelon smiled Morgan Tzangerei and win outright. If so will Ken be able to set picanninies, former colonials and white slave stock (like Boris hisself) a-grinning London wide? By moving the goal posts, delaying the announcement for five weeks, and insisting on a run off? Just a thought.

ASIDE: Will someone please pretty please tell smug shadowy chancellor GOO that Burry is NOT pronounced Berry?

HINT TO CAM: These terrible results for Labour ARE the result of a protest, particularly on the 10% tax and property scaremongering, and NOT a positive buy in to Tory "policy". Please stop pretending otherwise.

Hizb_ut-Tahrir and Tories: What Dave Thinks of Them

Further to the startling tie up of Tory and HuT hotheads in Whalley Range ward. The above is a seven-minute exchange between Dave Cameron and Gordon Brown, with a cameo for John Reid, at GB's first PMQs last year. This should help HuT hotheads (or HuTheads for short?) decide which side their heads are battered on.

There are a lot of problems with Hizb from my point of view. But the greatest in this instance is their collusion with Tories and their joint steaming-headed approach to this election.

Quite an irony that their Stand for Islam campaign was being used to scare very traditional elements in the community into voting Tory. That, when the Tories are currently the most vehement, arguably the only proponents in fact, in wanting to see HuT banned without evidence, good cause or a proper legal case

HuTheads distributed the material - with a spurious picture of Gordon Brown associated with the idea of banning the Qur'an, which idea came from a Netherlandish MP - in other wards too. But not in collusion with a political party. Such an association is utterly against the rules of engagement of HuT UK.

London Mayor: Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid, Buffoon Wins?

With five hours to go before the declaration the word coming out from all sorts of orifices and the scuttley creatures therein is that Boris is to be hailed as the new Mayor of London. How close? Whither Lib Dem 2nds?

Poor old London.

Jaws of Count Predictions: Pretty Good Performance

So, how did the old CP-LOL predictions fare?

Cheetham : Always more exciting when former Deputy Leader Martin Pagel is up. Sham Raja (LD) got hammered last time and Kay Phillips (Respect Renewal) should keep him in his place. Prediction: Comfortable (300-vote) hold for Labour.

Correct in everything but the quantum for Martin's victory. Kay won 500 votes again, outshining the former Respect comrades of the SWP. Huge numbers our way. Martin's last solo defence was much hairier. With a margin in two figures. And a filthy Lib Dem campaign. Well done to Afzal and Naeem and Martin on a stunning victory.

Chorlton : Promises to be quite a contest. High turn out. Humungous struggle between well established Cllr Sheila Newman and John Leech's youngster Lianne Williams who has piled a small rain forest of paper through the doors of the ward. Very green I'm sure. Prediction: 150 majority to Labour.

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Correct. Within the margin of a recount this one! Actual majority was 159259. Leech virtually wept. Hurrah.

Chorlton Park : Expect a bit of a slump in LD majority thanks to Leech's final retirement from the double job schtick in favour of Bernie "Mad Dog" Ryan. Norman "Shameless" Lewis' girl. It'll still be a weigh in. But there were unprecedented queues at the polling station for the Chorlton part of the ward.

Correct. Majority down to three figures! Chorlton Park have lost a councillor who as an MP makes an adequate councillor and are now "represented" by three muppets.

City Centre : Too close to call. If Rob Adlard (Tory) fails here again he'll be out on his ear. Marc Rambo (LD) could take a fall. And Anthony McCaul certainly deserves credit for a great campaign. Green candidate is brand new with no name recognition and may lose votes to Labour. Prediction: Margin of 75 either way LD-Lab. Tories a sad, well beaten third. Increased turnout, particularly from the 4,000 students who have barely broken 1% in the past.

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Correct. Apart from the hopes of an uplift in student participation. Not a lot of people realise that student halls bulk as 40% or so of the ward's population and that the parlous state of the buy-to-let market also finds them in droves in key worker and commercial flats. Adlard must be replaced. Probably by a clubbable young woman. As in seals clubbable.

Gorton North and South : Potential Labour gains, perhaps not this time, we'll see.

Correct: There is potential here. But the next North contest barring by-elections will be a defence. South is well within striking distance thanks to sterling work by Julie Reid and the team. Lazy Glover gets another four year stretch at our expense.

Hulme : Prediction: Labour gain from Green. Good margin (350 votes). After Vanessa Hall cashed in her right-to-buy Council Flat, waved bye bye to her Council Allowance/Maternity Pay, and moved to greener fields.

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The Greens went a bit dirty and threw their leaflet phobia to the four winds in the last few days. Possibly clawing across the 100-150 needed to make my prediction hold. Lib Dems scarcely tried. In the old fashioned way for this seat. They might well have a real run at the seat again in 2010. As they did in 2006. Greens conceded on 50 down without even a bundle recount. Which was quaint. The Greens are over in this part of Manchester. What are they for anyway? Well done Cllr Emily Lomax, Nigel, Mary, Glenn, and the whole team.

Longsight : Strongly tipped for a Labour gain.

And what a Labour gain. Lib Dems played the Punjabi vs Deshi card. Labour played the "Liaquat (Lee-ack-cat) is a joke card" which easily trumped the former. Luthfur is Manchester's second Deshi councillor with a huge mandate. In three years time the Lib Dems will be cleared out of Longsight. Should have happened last year but elements in the local party refused to follow good advice on candidate selection. Candidate choice will be vital next time round. Vide Whalley Range. The Tories did remarkably well here, as they did in Cheetham.

Miles Platting and Newton Heath : Very odd this one. BNP more or less stood down their campaign in 2007 and LDs ran Labour within double figures. This time the established BNP candidate has moved elsewhere. Damien O'Connor would be back if the LDs win. He has previously been Labour, Independent, and UKIP.

Correct. Could have called the numbers on this one. BNP vote held up slightly better than expected. But the campaign to vilify the convicted fraudster and sleazebag O'Connor made him into Robin Hood. Whoops.

Northenden : Another close run thing. Prediction: Looks like a Labour hold by 100-150 to me. Thanks to the brothers gym in Benchill.

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Very sadly this one went the other way. Nothing much wrong on the day. Slight shortage of muscle perhaps. In view of the Old Moat shenanigans (next) I'd certainly be tempted to have a good look at the proxy and postal votes on this one. The winning margin is less than a Lib Dem bedsit full after all. Mad Max Eakins is a biblical plague on the ward as they may discover to their cost. A certain amount of sanctimonious proxy voting for the working class by the well-to-do Guardianistas ... while the actual working class are not interested in hurting a Labour party who have saved a vital community boxing gym, brought huge recent and upcoming investment in environment, housing and an A1 community centre.

Old Moat : Enlivened by the discovery of 10 (not 12) mysterious proxy voters in a one bedroom flat. Six of them assigned to Cllr Sandiford, Cllr Isherwood, Cllr Cameron; the other four to LD activists. Very strange. The LDs have also fielded Sufiyan N Rana form the Cheetham Hill Ranas. Which is odd given their setting their face against a Muslim candidate in the case of Yasmin Zalzala.

Correct. An easy hold. Possibly drew in too much resource after some early Lib Dem feints and brags.

Rusholme : Nahella Ashraf from Left List (Reespect) tries again. Atiha Chaudry may close the gap on Lib Dem Paul B Shannon.

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Correct. Nahella must surely sever links with the SWP and with some of her more hot-headed moments and join forces with Labour? The Nahella plus Atiha vote combined would have run the ambitious arse Shannon very close indeed.

Whalley Range : Fascinating three way struggle between Labour, Lib Dems and Tories each of whom hold one seat. It is the Liberal one that is up. If the Muslim vote breaks three ways as expected the underlying Labour sentiment of the ward should shine through. Prediction: Labour Gain, margin of 150 votes plus.

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Worst prediction of the evening. The Tory/Hizb_ut-Tahrir tie up scared white Tories and probably also soft racists and sexists - including from weaker Labour supporters - to vote for the bumptious war dancer Cllr Dr Rev John Grant. Amina Lone was a great candidate and will have learned a huge amount from this campaign. Ready to bloody Faraz Bhatti's nose in 2011 ...

Mcr Local Elections: Northenden to LD by Eight Votes

Well, it's there in the headline. Close enough to have been turned around by a few more nearby comrades sitting on healthy majorities weighing in just a little more. Mike Kane has been a great councillor and Exec Member. He will be back very soon I think. Meanwhile Martin "Lev" Atkins is a nutter with a seat on the Council. Ye gods.

London: Michael Portillo on Boris Johnson Threat

BBC 0021 "If Boris wins in London the Tory leadership will be "holding its breath for the next four years" in case he turns out to be an "embarrassment," Michael Portillo (ex-Tory minister) tells Emily Maitlis. Ouch.

Salford Overall Figures: Labour Hold, Down Five

Salford Council Composition is now:

Labour 36 (41) HOLD
Tory 13 (10)
Lib Dem 10 (8)
Independent 1 (1 vacancy)

Roger Jones being one of the casualties.

Mcr Local Election 2008: Fun and Games All Round

Northenden still recounting. Chorlton Labour hold by 159. The beers are on Sheila then. Lib Dems hold Whalley Range. Massive Labour hold in Cheetham Hill - a weigh in in fact. Lib Dems take Miles Platting and Newton Heath. This is no great surprise. There may be an explanation here soon. There are certainly factors within the Labour machine in the area.

But the BNP have more or less packed up and gone home there. Last year dropping from 600 to 300 and almost letting the Libs in then. This year to 250. While as it goes in the wards the BNP are after the Lib Dems have done likewise. Almost disappearing. The Labour leaflets identifying Lib Dem Damien O'Connor as a "scumbag criminal" don't seem to have done the trick at all. Loveable rogue is the way he's seen.

Newsflash: Roger Jones Figures

Rick Houlton, of the CAP, polled 1152 votes and Stephen Fitzsimmons, of the Conservative Party, received 832 votes. Mr Jones polled only 650 votes.

Mcr Local Election 2008: Knife Edge Northenden

There is one vote in it in Northenden. As this is where I spent the last two hours of my campaigning day I am hoping it is one of the last two lifts we gave.

Funnily enough one of the local members I was working with recalled the seat being settled by exactly that margin 40 or so years ago.

Newsflash, Salford: Roger Jones Loses Seat

No figures yet. Peel Holdings and MART (anti congestion charging) and various local indies have been out to get him.

Mcr Local Election: A Second Gain to Labour

Longsight has fallen by a massive majority to Labour's Luthfur Rahman. Lib Dem loser Liaquat Ali tried to defect to Labour ahead of the poll. Wait until after the election was the decision on that one ...

Holds for Labour in Brooklands, Charlestown, Moss Side; and for Lib Dems in Burnage, Didsbury West, Gorton North and Withington.

Half way. Big ones to come in Cheetham Hill, Chorlton, Northenden, Miles Platting and Newton Heath, Whalley Range. The first four are Labour defences, the latter a Lib Dem defence. All fourfive have been very strongly contested.

Mcr Local Election 2008: First Gain to Labour

Cllr Emily Lomax has won Hulme ward, but by just 50 votes

Mcr Local Election 2008:

Five Labour Holds:

Figures to follow

Bradford Ward

BULLEN Andrew Green
JENKINSON Chris Lib Dems
KELLER Rod Tory
SWANNICK Neil Labour

Crumpsall Ward

GLASSPOLE Kim Elvin Tory
LEESE Richard Charles Labour
QUINN Eithne Green
SHAHBAZ Rashid Lib Dems
WILLESCROFT Bob Uk Independence Party

Fallowfield Ward

AFZAL Kas Lib Dems
LEE Daniel Benjamin Green
POWER Colin Tory
ROYLE David Labour

Moston Ward

HARTLEY Timothy John Lib Dems - For A Fairer Britain
MORRIS Gareth James Tory
MURPHY Paul Anthony Labour
REDFORD Tom Green

Woodhouse Park Ward

BRADFORD Jody Nicole Green
HEATH Stephen John Tory Candidate
O'NEIL Brian Darral Labour
PODBYLSKI Joe Lib Dems

Mcr Local Election 2008: City Centre Gap Closes

City Centre Ward

ADLARD Rob Tory 386
BIRKINSHAW Peter Green 139
MCCAUL Anthony Labour 479
RAMSBOTTOM Marc Steven Lib Dems 568

Disappointing. But in fact a tremendous result for Anthony McCaul. Closing the margin on Rambo to under 90 and widening the gap to the Tories to around the same. Adlard is now, officially, Tory toast.

Manchester Local Election 08: Blogging From Count

Here we go again. Many thanks to Manchester City Council Press Office for squeezing me in once again.

Counts to watch:

Brooklands : Tories always big this up as a prospect. But safe Labour.
Cheetham : Always more exciting when former Deputy Leader Martin Pagel is up. Sham Raja (LD) got hammered last time and Kay Phillips (Respect Renewal) should keep him in his place. Prediction: Comfortable (300-vote) hold for Labour.
Chorlton : Promises to be quite a contest. High turn out. Humungous struggle between well established Cllr Sheila Newman and John Leech's youngster Lianne Williams who has piled a small rain forest of paper through the doors of the ward. Very green I'm sure. Prediction: 150 majority to Labour.
Chorlton Park : Expect a bit of a slump in LD majority thanks to Leech's final retirement from the double job schtick in favour of Bernie "Mad Dog" Ryan. Norman "Shameless" Lewis' girl. It'll still be a weigh in. But there were unprecedented queues at the polling station for the Chorlton part of the ward.
City Centre : Too close to call. If Rob Adlard (Tory) fails here again he'll be out on his ear. Marc Rambo (LD) could take a fall. And Anthony McCaul certainly deserves credit for a great campaign. Green candidate is brand new with no name recognition and may lose votes to Labour. Prediction: Margin of 75 either way LD-Lab. Tories a sad, well beaten third. Increased turnout, particularly from the 4,000students who have barely broken 1% in the past.
Gorton North and South : Potential Labour gains, perhaps not this time, we'll see.
Hulme : Prediction: Labour gain from Green. Good margin (350 votes). After Vanessa Hall cashed in her right-to-buy Council Flat, waved bye bye to her Council Allowance/Maternity Pay, and moved to greener fields.
Longsight : Strongly tipped for a Labour gain.
Miles Platting and Newton Heath : Very odd this one. BNP more or less stodd down their campaign in 2007 and LDs ran Labour within double figures. This time the established BNP candidate has moved elsewhere. Damien O Connor would be back if the LDs win. He has previously been Labour, Independent, and UKIP.
Northenden : Another close run thing. Prediction: Looks like a Labour hold by 100-150 to me. Thanks to the brothers gym in Benchill.
Old Moat : Enlivened by the discovery of 10 (not 12) mysterious proxy voters in a one bedroom flat. Six of them assigned to Cllr Sandiford, Cllr Isherwood, Cllr Cameron; the other four to LD activists. Very strange. The LDs have also fielded Sufiyan N Rana form the Cheetham Hill Ranas. Which is odd given their setting their face against a Muslim candidate in the case of Yasmin Zalzala.
Rusholme : Nahella Ashraf from Left List (Reespect) tries again. Atiha Chaudry may close the gap on Lib Dem Paul B Shannon.
Whalley Range : Fascinating three way struggle between Labour, Lib Dems and Tories each of whom hold one seat. It is the Liberal one that is up. If the Muslim vote breaks three ways as expected the underlying Labour sentiment of the ward should shine through. Prediction: Labour Gain, margin of 150 votes plus.

More BNP action in Higher Blackley (with Derek "Gimp" Adams) and Charlestown (with Stephen "Muppet" Moran).

EXCLUSIVE PIC: Identity Parade, Tory Hothead Retinue

Having lived in Chorlton and Whalley Range for 25 years or so it is hard work to assimilate the news about the Tory tie up with Hizb_ut-Tahrir activists and their seamless distribution of Tory and HuT literature, and allegedly of Tory and HuT threats to boot.

We have worked extremely hard at the Community Unity we have in these areas and in Whalley Range in both 2001 and 2003 I personally worked on a Labour party instigated bi-lingual community unity initiative tied in with a harrassment hotline.

While it would be true that the last of the Tory old guard in the area - the nasty Mr John Kershaw - did have a line in leather coated body guards canvassing with him as recently as 2001 we have never had any great problem with fascist incursions.

Here's one resident who has I believe made a formal complaint to both the police and Tory high ups:

I want to formally complain about Tory activists delivering to households Hiz But al-Tahrir leaflets on Monday 28 April bearing the strapline "there are calls to ban the Qu'ran" along with a Tory leaflet.
Ours is a very delicately balanced neighbourhood and this is stirring up racial division in order to capitalise Tory votes.
Hiz But al Tahris as you probably know has been under discussion for some time, as to whether it's banned for its activities in stimulating racial hatred.
It's sad that for long Manchester has defended its communities against white right wing groups inciting division, and it is now muslim and Tory collusion that have chosen to take the dreaded plunge in Whalley Range."

The above photograph - captioned "Fawad Hussain, out and about listening to the views of local people" is in fact alleged to include amongst the tasty line up some of the very hotheads and bullies who have been operating as described in our exclusive yesterday. Trying to rule the streets and seeking elected influence.

It has been copied from a Tory "in touch" newsletter. Strangely this does not cover the Caliphate, the Palestinian cause, Islamist supremacy, or an insight into HuT's non violence "for the time being". Instead it deals with recycling and a rather misrepresented congestion charge.

Mr GuF: Should the Punishment Fit the Drunken Crime?

Yesterday we reported the sad tale of Paul Staines aka Guido Fawkes aka Mr GuF and his conviction for uninsured drink driving - at almost twice the legal limit. Fourth alcohol related offence and second disqualification for drunken driving in the last few years. Punishments available include £9,000 fines AND three-year disqualification AND six months in jail. But should the punishment fit the crime?

Submersion in the Tower in a Butt of Malmsey perhaps? Or a good session of Lager Boarding (YouTube link, 18 cert), using Lech Polish Export naturally. Image from www.futureofthebook.org.

But riddle-me-ree. Should the utterly bankrupt, convicted drunk, charity commission investigatee, and tax avoider Paul Staines be locked up for six months, increased to nine for bad behaviour, would he lose his tax avoidance status? Methinks GuF will be relying on the "non domiciled" rather than "non resident" loopholes. But further information gratefully received.

Waste Consultation: Short Notice for Focus Group

Phone rings. Would I like to take part in a focus group on waste management tonight in Wythenshawe? At 6pm. On election night? Give me a break. Oh, I never thought of that, said the Council gentleman ...